Improvingaccuracy in multiple regression estimates of population using principles from causal modelling

This paper reports a mildly restricted procedure for using a theoretical causal ordering and principles from path analysis to provide a basis for modifying regression coefficients in order to improve the estimation accuracy of the ratio-correlation method of population estimation. The modification is intended to take into account temporal changes in the structure of variable relationships, a major element in determining the accuracy of post-censal estimates. The modification of coefficients is conservative in that it uses rank-ordering as a basis of change. Empirical results are reported for counties in Washington state that demonstrate the increased accuracy obtained using the proposed procedure.     

Longitudinal Analysis of Inhibitors of Manufacturer Delivery Performance

This article examines demand, manufacturing, and supply factors proposed to inhibit manufacturer delivery execution. Extant research proposes many factors expected to harm delivery performance. Prior cross‐sectional empirical research examines such factors at the plant level, generally finding factors arising from dynamic complexity to be significant, but factors arising from detail complexity to be insignificant. Little empirical research examines the factors using product‐level operating data, which arguably makes more sense for analyzing how supply chain complexity factors inhibit delivery. For purposes of research triangulation, we use longitudinal product‐level data from MRP systems to examine whether the factors inhibit internal manufacturing on time job rates and three customer‐oriented measures of delivery performance: product line item fill rates, average delivery lead times, and average tardiness. Our econometric models pool product line item data across division plants and within distinct product families, using a proprietary monthly dataset on over 100 product line items from the environmental controls manufacturing division of a Fortune 100 conglomerate. The data summarize customer ordering events of over 900 customers and supply chain activities of over 80 suppliers. The study contributes academically by finding significant detail complexity inhibitors of delivery that prior studies found insignificant. The findings demonstrate the need for empirical research using data disaggregated below the plant‐level unit of analysis, as they illustrate how some factors previously found insignificant indeed are significant when considered at the product‐level unit of analysis. Managers can use the findings to understand better which drivers and inhibitors of delivery performance are important.     

The cultural meaning of suicide: what does that mean?

Scholars sometimes stress that it is important to know the individual meaning of suicide and the cultural meaning of suicide, but the meaning of these terms remains unclear. The present article discusses this problem and suggests that the individual meaning of suicide is best based on the motives for suicide, while the cultural meaning of suicide is best rooted in the lay theories of suicide in which the members of cultures and subcultures believe.     

The EPQ with partial backordering and phase-dependent backordering rate

In previous work we established a closed-form optimal stocking strategy for an EPQ model with partial backordering at a constant rate β. Here we extend this work to allow for the possibility that the percentage of demand backordered will increase when production starts again. We show how our previous model can be adapted to find the optimal decision variable values for this new assumption and develop the condition that the initial value of β must meet for partial backordering to be optimal.     

Influencing hand hygiene at spectrum health

Gain insights into the six sources that both motivate and enable people to change through personal, social, and structural forces, and see how they were used to improve hand-washing patterns at a large health care system.     

Charles A. Ellwood and the End of Sociology

Charles A. Ellwood was one of the larger than life figures of early American sociology. Into the 1930s he was recognized as the ‘father’ of sociological social psychology. His work theoretically and methodologically paved the way for Symbolic Interactionism. He also saw sociology as a means to an end, that is, to make the world a better place. True sociology could only be thought of in that light. By the 1920s however, sociology was changing. The advent of scientism and statistics amplified factions within the disipline. William F. Ogburn and his students began to push sociology away from the ideas of people such as Ellwood, Ross, Small and many of the early American sociologists. By 1930 a full scale battle was ensuing which Ellwood would lose. The following is an account of Ellwood’s fight with scientism through his publications and correspondence.     

Measuring irregular migration and population flows – what available data can tell

Wild assumptions, estimates and number games are made in regard to irregular migration flows. While the numbers cited are, in fact, often dated and of unclear origin, reports use such numbers to suggest a rise in irregular migration; they also usually assume that irregular entry and, to some extent, overstaying are the only significant pathways into irregularity. To properly account for irregular migration flows, however, both in- and outflows, as well as the complex ways of becoming (or ceasing to be) an “irregular migrant”, have to be included. Thus, apart from irregular migration flows in the narrow sense, like unlawful entry and emigration of persons (unrecorded returns, registered voluntary returns and deportations), other flows – notably status-related inflows (overstaying, withdrawal of residence status, rejection of asylum claims), status-related outflows (regularisation, ex lege changes of the legal status of irregular migrants, etc.) and flows related to vital events (births and deaths), must be considered. The article provides a critical appraisal of available data sources, indicators, estimates and methods to estimate irregular migration flows. In the context of a case study, we then analyse statistics of apprehensions at the EUROPEAN UNION’s external borders in Eastern Europe as indicators of geographical flows -- migration flows in the narrow sense -- arguing that despite the many limitations of the available data, the data can nevertheless be used as indicators of certain trends.