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51.
Terrorist actions are aimed at maximizing harm (health, psychological, economical, and political) through the combined physical impacts of the act and fear. Immediate and effective response to a terrorist act is critical to limit human and environmental harm, effectively restore facility function, and maintain public confidence. Though there have been terrorist attacks in public facilities that we have learned from, overall our experiences in restoration of public facilities following a terrorist attack are limited. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far more complex than in industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. For example, there may be a great need to quickly restore the facility to full operation and allow public access even though it was not designed for easy or rapid restoration, and critical information is needed for quantitative risk assessment and effective restoration must be anticipated to be incomplete and uncertain. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the “adaptive management” paradigm provides a constructive parallel paradigm for restoration of public facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, inefficiencies, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a public facility after a terrorist attack suggest that integration of adaptive management principles explicitly into restoration processes will result in substantially enhanced and flexible responses necessary to meet the uncertainties of potential terrorist attacks. 相似文献
52.
53.
Alan Phillips Alan Ebbutt Lesley France David Morgan Mick Ireson Lesley Struthers Guenter Heimann 《Pharmaceutical statistics》2003,2(4):241-251
The International Conference on Harmonisation guideline ‘Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials’ was adopted by the Committee for Proprietary Medicinal Products (CPMP) in March 1998, and consequently is operational in Europe. Since then more detailed guidance on selected topics has been issued by the CPMP in the form of ‘Points to Consider’ documents. The intent of these was to give guidance particularly to non‐statistical reviewers within regulatory authorities, although of course they also provide a good source of information for pharmaceutical industry statisticians. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration has recently issued a draft guideline on data monitoring committees. In November 2002 a one‐day discussion forum was held in London by Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry (PSI). The aim of the meeting was to discuss how statisticians were responding to some of the issues covered in these new guidelines, and to document consensus views where they existed. The forum was attended by industry, academic and regulatory statisticians. This paper outlines the questions raised, resulting discussions and consensus views reached. It is clear from the guidelines and discussions at the workshop that the statistical analysis strategy must be planned during the design phase of a clinical trial and carefully documented. Once the study is complete the analysis strategy should be thoughtfully executed and the findings reported. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
54.
Jason P. Fine David V. Glidden Kristine E. Lee 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(1):317-329
Summary. We propose a simple estimation procedure for a proportional hazards frailty regression model for clustered survival data in which the dependence is generated by a positive stable distribution. Inferences for the frailty parameter can be obtained by using output from Cox regression analyses. The computational burden is substantially less than that of the other approaches to estimation. The large sample behaviour of the estimator is studied and simulations show that the approximations are appropriate for use with realistic sample sizes. The methods are motivated by studies of familial associations in the natural history of diseases. Their practical utility is illustrated with sib pair data from Beaver Dam, Wisconsin. 相似文献
55.
This study examined the emergence of affect specificity in infancy. In this study, infants received verbal and facial signals of 2 different, negatively valenced emotions (fear and sadness) as well as neutral affect via a television monitor to determine if they could make qualitative distinctions among emotions of the same valence. Twenty 12‐ to 14‐month‐olds and 20 16‐ to 18‐month‐olds were examined. Results suggested that younger infants showed no evidence of referential specificity, as they responded similarly to both the target and distracter toys, and showed no evidence of affect specificity, showing no difference in play between affect conditions. Older infants, in contrast, showed evidence both of referential and affect specificity. With respect to affect specificity, 16‐ to 18‐month‐olds touched the target toy less in the fear condition than in the sad condition and showed a larger proportion of negative facial expressions in the sad condition versus the fear condition. These findings suggest a developmental emergence after 15 months of age for affect specificity in relating emotional messages to objects. 相似文献
56.
To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract. 相似文献
57.
David Smith 《Children & Society》2003,17(3):226-235
The paper discusses the reasons for the large amount of critical commentary that New Labour's reforms of the youth justice system have attracted. It explores the extent to which there is something ‘new’ about these reforms, suggesting that there are important differences when New Labour's approach is compared with its predecessor's. It then discusses the main lines of critical commentary on the reforms, concluding that much of it is over‐abstract and insufficiently empirically informed. The paper concludes with some ambiguous evidence on what the impact of the reforms has actually been. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
58.
The authors explored predictions of general job satisfaction at early and middle adulthood and uncovered several findings about developmental processes associated with job satisfaction. Tests of life‐span career theory propositions revealed that neither choice‐job congruence nor gender added significantly to predictions of job satisfaction at 2 career stages. Earlier occupational choice and current job added to predictions of midcareer (modal age 43 years) job satisfaction, especially for men. The predictability of job satisfaction is apparently influenced by the career stage when satisfaction is appraised. 相似文献
59.
Jeffrey Parker 《Economic inquiry》1992,30(1):101-116
The effects of sectoral shifts, measured by dispersion in the growth rates of employment or earning across industries or regions, on unemployment are tested in a specification controlling for the effects of other labor-market variables and shifts in the demographic composition of the labor force. Interindustry and geographical shifts in labor demand have significant unemployment effects, with adult males the group most strongly affected. The estimated equations imply that most of the fluctuation in unemployment over the period 1956-87 was been due to microeconomic causes rather than aggregate demand. 相似文献
60.
In this note, we consider the problem of estimating regression coefficients when there are missing observations of some explanatory variables. Following Dagenais (1973), Gourieroux and Monfort (1981), and Conniffe (1983a, 1983b), we assume auxiliary relationships exist among explanatory varibles. Several estimatprs and their interrelationships are discussed. We begin with the model of Gourieroux and
Monfort (1981) 相似文献
Monfort (1981) 相似文献