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931.
The banks have been accumulating huge data bases for many years and are increasingly turning to statistics to provide insight
into customer behaviour, among other things. Credit risk is an important issue and certain stochastic models have been developed
in recent years to describe and predict loan default. Two of the major models currently used in the industry are considered
here, and various ways of extending their application to the case where a loan is repaid in installments are explored. The
aspect of interest is the probability distribution of the total loss due to repayment default at some time. Thus, the loss
distribution is determined by the distribution of times to default, here regarded as a discrete-time survival distribution.
In particular, the probabilities of large losses are to be assessed for insurance purposes. 相似文献
932.
933.
Xian?LiuEmail author Charles?C.?EngelJr. Han?Kang David?Cowan 《Population research and policy review》2005,24(6):573-592
This research examines excess mortality among American veterans age 70 years or older during a two-to-three year interval
from 1993/94 to the end of 1995. Using a structural hazard rate model, we analyzed data on a sample of respondents age 70
or over from the Survey of Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD). We found that at age 70, older veterans
have a slightly higher death rate than their nonveteran counterparts, implying a mortality crossover right before this age.
Such excess mortality among veterans increases considerably with age, when other factors are held equal. The direct and indirect
effects of veteran status on mortality by means of physical and mental health mostly perform in opposite directions, and such
effects vary greatly in magnitude and direction as a function of age. The intervening effects of physical and mental health
status decrease substantially with increasing age. Many of the mechanisms inherent in the excess mortality among older veterans
are not captured by variations in their health status, especially among the oldest-old. A more extensive study on this topic
is urgently needed. 相似文献
934.
The role of public health improvements in health advances: The twentieth-century United States 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Mortality rates in the United States fell more rapidly during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries than in any other period in American history. This decline coincided with an epidemiological transition and the disappearance of a mortality "penalty" associated with living in urban areas. There is little empirical evidence and much unresolved debate about what caused these improvements, however. In this article, we report the causal influence of clean water technologies--filtration and chlorination--on mortality in major cities during the early twentieth century. Plausibly exogenous variation in the timing and location of technology adoption was used to identify these effects, and the validity of this identifying assumption is examined in detail. We found that clean water was responsible for nearly half the total mortality reduction in major cities, three quarters of the infant mortality reduction, and nearly two thirds of the child mortality reduction. Rough calculations suggest that the social rate of return to these technologies was greater than 23 to 1, with a cost per person-year saved by clean water of about dollar 500 in 2003 dollars. Implications for developing countries are briefly considered. 相似文献
935.
Gudelunas D 《Journal of homosexuality》2005,49(1):1-33
This study samples 200 personal advertisements from the online gay and lesbian global Web portal PlanetOut. This data, along with survey responses completed by advertisers included in the sample, are used to frame a discussion on the use of online gay and lesbian spaces and communities. Despite interacting in a global space, data showed that advertisers remained aware of their local identities. Differences between advertisers were most notable between gender and whether they logged on in a small or large town. Advertisers were interested in interacting locally, eager to move from online to offline communication, often-times not overly concerned with maintaining anonymity, and not interested in toying with multiple identities. Users of PlanetOut personals largely did not consider themselves part of a virtual gay and lesbian community even when they recognized the existence of a local geographically-based gay and lesbian community. However, the dynamic nature of online personal advertisements did allow for a new type of interactive advertisement that does differ from previous print forums. 相似文献
936.
937.
Recent work on extended optimality criteria for robust designs is applied to response surface problems. Methods of calculation are described and the criteria illustrated with several examples. The extended criteria discriminate among designs equivalent by other criteria. 相似文献
938.
939.
940.