The medium-term currency outlook

The article examines the experience of the major international currencies over the period since 1953 and assesses their prospects in the early 1980s. It summarizes the historical background, drawing a distinction between the Bretton Woods arrangement, when the world operated under a notional fixed exchange rate system, and the post 1971 experience which has involved a good deal of ‘dirty floating’ in the absence of any formal system. The paper focuses on the factors which influence exchange rate movements, and examines the practical uses of the analytical tools available, assessing the value, and possible misuse, of exchange rate forecasts in the decision-making process of the Long Range Planner. The author draws certain conclusions about economic policy and the international monetary system and offers some thoughts about the implications of the European Monetary System.     

The Not Altogether Social Construction of Emotions: A Critique of Harré and Gillett

Are emotions like sneezes, unwilled, mechanical, or are they like judgments; are they entirely social constructions? Harré and Gillett believe that emotions are exclusively judgments. We argue that their view misses something important. Imagine a person quaking in anger. Both we and Harré and Gillett believe that he is angry only if he has made an implicit judgment, such as I have been transgressed against. But it is the quaking, not the judgment, that gives authenticity and force to the expression of anger. The quaking does not clarify what the actor means but rather it clarifies the relation of the actor to the meaning of his display. What makes it a genuine expression of anger and not a joke or performance is that the quaking is beyond the will. Bodily displays are not necessary to make expressions authentic; anything that shows that the expression is beyond the will will do, for instance, obsessive thoughts, intrusions, or an inability to concentrate. For Harré and Gillett emotions both as displays and feelings do not merely embody judgments but are also speech acts. We argue that an expression, a feeling or flitting through the mind, cannot be a speech act since only the overt can fit into the convention, the strictures of a community. Nor is the display merely a speech act. Since for an emotional display to be genuine it must slip from the lips unbidden. Further, a speech act account makes the emotions arbitrary; they imply that the set of possible emotions is open. We think, on the other hand, that only some sorts of judgments can become part of an emotion; judgments that relate to things that are important enough in a particular culture that judgment display and feeling are linked together involuntarily.     

Leaving Home for College: Expectations for Selective Reconstruction of Self

This paper describes how 23 primarily upper-middle-class high school seniors anticipated identity changes as they prepared to leave home for college. The transition from high school to college is a period of “liminality” during which students are structurally in between old and new statuses. We discuss how students anticipated change, planned to affirm certain of their identities, imagined creating new identities, and contemplated discovering unanticipated identities. Such interpretive effort must be understood in the context of the ambivalence they felt about leaving home and achieving independence. The data also provoke discussion of how social class membership might be implicated in people's ability to control identity change as they move through the life course.     

Defining attributes for scorecard construction in credit scoring

In many domains, simple forms of classification rules are needed because of requirements such as ease of use. A particularly simple form splits each variable into just a few categories, assigns weights to the categories, sums the weights for a new object to be classified, and produces a classification by comparing the score with a threshold. Such instruments are often called scorecards. We describe a way to find the best partition of each variable using a simulated annealing strategy. We present theoretical and empirical comparisons of two such additive models, one based on weights of evidence and another based on logistic regression.     

Post-Fordism,union strategy and the rhetoric of restructuring: The case of Australia, 1980–1996

Theory and Society -     

The Impact of Different Kinds of Neighborhood Involvement on Residents' Overall Evaluations of Their Neighborhoods

Abstract

This paper focuses on the relative impact of different kinds of social participation on an individual's sentiment toward his or her neighborhood. Three kinds of neighborhood participation are considered: (1) informal social participation; (2) involvement in formal neighborhood voluntary associations; and (3) use of neighborhood services. Survey data on nine moderate income neighborhoods with various racial mixes are employed in the analysis. The results of the regression analysis indicate that informal social participation and use of neighborhood services are positively associated with overall sentiment toward the neighborhood, whereas involvement in formal neighborhood voluntary associations has no relationship to the dependent variable. The implications of these findings for policy-making concerned with neighborhood maintenance and revitalization are discussed.     

Cigarette Smoking Among Korean International College Students in the United States

Abstract

Objective and Participants: This study explored (1) the prevalence of cigarette smoking among South Korean international college students in the United States, (2) differences in smoking between on- and off-campus living arrangements, and (3) predictors of an increase in smoking over time in the United States Methods: An online survey was completed by 1,201 students at 52 4-year US universities (34% response rate). Results: The overall smoking prevalence was 43.5%. The smoking rate (29.0%) of female students was higher than that (4%) of female college students in South Korea. Sex, living place, living situation, length of stay as a student in the United States, home smoking rules, campus-wide tobacco-free policies, and levels of acculturative stress, anxiety, and depression were significantly associated with an increase in smoking (p < .05). Conclusions: Given the high smoking prevalence among the South Korean students on US college campuses, targeted prevention efforts for these students may be warranted.     

Book review

New Zealand and the European Union edited by Matthew Gibbons. Auckland, Pearson Education. 2008. 172 p. NZ$52.99 (paperback). ISBN 0733993831.

Going bush. New Zealanders and nature in the twentieth century by Kirstie Ross. Auckland, Auckland University Press. 2008. 200 p. NZ$34.99 (paperback). ISBN 1869404246.

Globalisation and the wealth of nations by Brian Easton. Auckland, Auckland University Press. 2007. 248 p. NZ$50.00 (paperback). ISBN 9781869403775.