Testing the lucas critique: A review

Claims that the parameters of an econometric model are invariant under changes in either policy rules or expectations processes entail super exogeneity and encompassing implications. Super exogeneity is always potentially refutable, and when both implications are involved, the Lucas critique is also refutable. We review the methodological background; the applicability of the Lucas critique; super exogeneity tests; the encompassing implications of feedback and feedforward models; and the role of incomplete information. The approach is applied to money demand in the u.S.A. to examine constancy, exogeneity, and encompassing, and reveals the Lucas critique to be inapplicable to the model under analysis.     

The implementation and effects of Great Britain's National Lottery

This article reviews the implementation of the British National Lottery since the first draw took place in November 1994. It seeks to analyse the experience to date against the background of the concerns expressed prior to its introduction and of the regulatory objectives set by the framework legislation. It also considers the impact that the Lottery is having upon the formulation and implementation of regulatory policy affecting other gambling media. The six sections following the introduction deal in turn with the Lottery's income, permitted games, the participants, the good causes benefiting from its proceeds, its impact on other gambling media, and its place within British government policy concerning the regulation of commercial gambling.Since writing this article, some changes in the National Lottery have taken place (at 1 March 1996). The sales of scratchcards have now declined to £20m a week; 330m prizes totalling £2.7bn have been distributed and there have been 343 jackpot winners, 164 of whom have received in excess of £lm. OFLOT has commissioned research on the socio-economic condition of purchasers, which shows that the average weekly spend is £2.63, and that adults within the socio-economic group C2 have the highest spend (OFLOT, 1996). This research also shows that 22% of a sample of children between the ages of 12 and 15 were spending up to £5 a week on lottery tickets. The turnover for the first year is likely to be in the region of £5.5bn, which to date has produced £1.6bn for the good causes. The total turnover represents slightly less than 0.1% of Great Britain's gross national product. The Government's proposed changes to the regulation of casinos and bingo clubs were published in February (Home Office, 1996).     

ENGAGING THE NON-ATTENDING SPOUSE IN MARITAL THERAPY THROUGH THE USE OF THERAPIST-INITIATED WRITTEN COMMUNICATION

There is currently rather widespread acceptance among clinicians that conjoint marital therapy is the preferred format for treating marital difficulties. However, more often than not, it seems that the marital referral or inquiry for therapy stems from the efforts of one spouse, with the other spouse remaining uninvolved or resistant. Consequently, engaging the non-attending spouse in therapy is an important issue for professionals working with married couples.     

Rural Community Satisfaction and Attachment in Mass Consumer Society1

Abstract Previous models of community satisfaction and attachment have not included personal economic attitudes and behaviors as independent variables. Their inclusion is theoretically justified when residents of communities are viewed as consumers in a larger social/economic context first and residents of a particular community second. As locally-oriented economic processes—once part of the community experience—were removed to nonlocal markets, local economic and demographic attributes became less important to rural residents' experience of community. In two rural communities with extreme scores on a service center viability index, satisfaction with employment and location of employment are important predictors.     

Nonverbal cues to deception among intimates,friends, and strangers

Buller and Burgoon (in press) propose that deceivers attempt to encode strategically nonverbal cues which indicate nonimmediacy and project a positive image. At the same time, deceivers leak arousal and negative affect via their nonverbal display. This experiment tested these predictions, while examining the influence of relational history on deception cues and the stability of deception cues within deceptive conversations. The nonverbal behavior of 130 strangers, friends, and intimates was measured. Results indicated that deceivers signalled nonimmediacy, arousal, and negative affect, but they did not appear to project a positive image. Deception cues were mediated by relational history and showed considerable temporal variation. Strangers leaked more arousal and negative affect than friends and intimates. Further, deceivers, particularly deceiving friends and intimates, seemed to monitor and control their nonverbal behavior during deception by suppressing arousal and negative affect cues and moderating nonimmediate behavior.     

The interpretation of maximum-likelihood estimation

Maximum-likelihood estimation is interpreted as a procedure for generating approximate pivotal quantities, that is, functions u(X;θ) of the data X and parameter θ that have distributions not involving θ. Further, these pivotals should be efficient in the sense of reproducing approximately the likelihood function of θ based on X, and they should be approximately linear in θ. To this end the effect of replacing θ by a parameter ϕ = ϕ(θ) is examined. The relationship of maximum-likelihood estimation interpreted in this way to conditional inference is discussed. Examples illustrating this use of maximum-likelihood estimation on small samples are given.