Learning,Structural Instability,and Present Value Calculations

Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data generating process underlying the cash flows. This paper presents new theoretical results for the existence of the infinite sum of discounted expected future values under uncertainty about the parameters characterizing the growth rate of the cash flow process. Furthermore, we explore the consequences for present values of relaxing the stability assumption in a way that allows for past and future breaks to the underlying cash flow process. We find that such breaks can lead to considerable changes in present values.     

Explaining offline and online civic engagement intentions between Italian and migrant youth / Análisis de las intenciones de participación cívica virtual y presencial entre jóvenes italianos y emigrantes

The aim of the study was to assess the role of some psychosocial factors in explaining offline and online civic engagement intentions in a sample of Italian and second generation migrant (Albanian and Moroccan) adolescents and young adults living in Italy. The theoretical model was an extended version of the Theory of Planned Behaviour including past experience. The sample included 598 adolescents and young adults (M = 19.32, SD = 3.17). Two hundred were Italian (88 males, 44.0%), 197 migrants of Albanian origin (130 males, 66%) and 201 migrants of Moroccan origin (116 males, 57.7%). Moroccan youth reported higher levels of both past civic engagement and future intentions than Albanian and Italian peers. Perceived effectiveness of civic engagement and past experience are consistently associated with stronger intentions to engage in the future (offline and online) in all groups. Internal efficacy plays a limited role, whereas the role of subjective norms differs according to the group and the source of normative influence (parents, peers).     

Contextual Determinants of Hopelessness: Investigating Socioeconomic Factors and Emotional Climates

Perceptions of the future are crucial components of individual well-being. Hopelessness, which is the sense that the future is a dead end, begins with the occurrence of negative life events and develops through the perception of consistent and pervasive negative outcomes. This study investigated the role of the socioeconomic aspects of the context and shared emotions (emotional climates) within a region in reducing or exacerbating hopelessness. Emotional climates have been defined as the emotional relationships constructed among members of a society, and they describe the environmental quality of a particular community. Multilevel modeling with individuals nested into regions (i.e., Swiss cantons) was used to explore the relationship between context and hopelessness. Data from the project “Vulnerability and Growth,” the Swiss Household Panel and official socioeconomic indicators were used. Spatial-weighting methods were applied to estimate depressive and optimistic emotional climates at the canton level. The results show that hopelessness is primarily affected by individual factors such as personality and life events. However, the analyses revealed that socioeconomic conditions and the optimistic and depressive climates that prevail in cantons also affected individuals’ perceptions of hopelessness. Individuals were more likely to feel hopeless in cantons with high unemployment rates and high levels of shared negative emotions. In contrast, positive emotional climates played a protective role against hopelessness. Acknowledgment of the influence of context on individuals’ perceptions of the future and the correlation of their states of anxiety and depression is pivotal for planning effective interventions to prevent depression.     

Forced Displacement,Migration, and Fertility in Burundi

The civil war in Burundi (1993–2005) led to the forced displacement of a large part of the population. This study aims to explore how that displacement affected fertility behavior. Using a nationally representative, retrospective survey on birth and residential histories of 4,523 Burundian women, we examine the impact of conflict-induced displacement on fertility. These unique data enable us to distinguish between remaining-in-place, voluntary migration, and forced displacement, as well as to distinguish between periods spent “on the move” versus periods spent in residence in the new site. Adopting a semiparametric regression model, we analyze both the probability of the first pregnancy and the subsequent spacing of higher order pregnancies. We find that the risk of a first pregnancy was higher in the year in which a woman was forcibly displaced and lower in the year a woman migrated voluntarily. Residency in a new site increased the risk of pregnancy for both.     

Can Target Costing and Whole Life Costing be Applied in the Construction Industry?: Evidence from Two Case Studies

Building on the results of a far‐reaching action research project we discuss an attempt to introduce target costing in the UK construction industry. After examining some of the issues facing the UK construction industry, we examine the case for using target costing as a way of supporting supply‐chain integration in view of an improvement of the level of profitability and quality of the industry. After presenting evidence from two pilot projects we propose some considerations on target costing and its applicability to the UK construction sector and derive directions for future research.     

Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations

Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data generating process underlying the cash flows. This paper presents new theoretical results for the existence of the infinite sum of discounted expected future values under uncertainty about the parameters characterizing the growth rate of the cash flow process. Furthermore, we explore the consequences for present values of relaxing the stability assumption in a way that allows for past and future breaks to the underlying cash flow process. We find that such breaks can lead to considerable changes in present values.