Modeling of rates over a hierarchical health administrative structure

Identifying the distribution of the incidence rate of a disease over a region is a prediction problem where area‐specific random effects are to be estimated. The authors consider the inclusion of such effects at different levels of a hierarchical health administrative structure. They develop inference procedures for this type of multi‐level model and show that the predicted rates are approximately weighted sums of the crude rates obtained by pooling data on each level of the hierarchy. Their techniques are illustrated using infant mortality data from British Columbia.     

The SAM Framework: Modeling the Effects of Management Factors on Human Behavior in Risk Analysis

Complex engineered systems, such as nuclear reactors and chemical plants, have the potential for catastrophic failure with disastrous consequences. In recent years, human and management factors have been recognized as frequent root causes of major failures in such systems. However, classical probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) techniques do not account for the underlying causes of these errors because they focus on the physical system and do not explicitly address the link between components' performance and organizational factors. This paper describes a general approach for addressing the human and management causes of system failure, called the SAM (System-Action-Management) framework. Beginning with a quantitative risk model of the physical system, SAM expands the scope of analysis to incorporate first the decisions and actions of individuals that affect the physical system. SAM then links management factors (incentives, training, policies and procedures, selection criteria, etc.) to those decisions and actions. The focus of this paper is on four quantitative models of action that describe this last relationship. These models address the formation of intentions for action and their execution as a function of the organizational environment. Intention formation is described by three alternative models: a rational model, a bounded rationality model, and a rule-based model. The execution of intentions is then modeled separately. These four models are designed to assess the probabilities of individual actions from the perspective of management, thus reflecting the uncertainties inherent to human behavior. The SAM framework is illustrated for a hypothetical case of hazardous materials transportation. This framework can be used as a tool to increase the safety and reliability of complex technical systems by modifying the organization, rather than, or in addition to, re-designing the physical system.     

Evaluation of treatment programs for persons with severe mental illness: moderator and mediator effects

This study evaluated several statistical models for estimating treatment effects in a randomized, longitudinal experiment comparing assertive community treatment (ACT) versus brokered case management (BCM). In addition, mediator and moderator analyses were conducted. The ACT clients had improved outcomes in terms of housing and psychiatric symptoms than BCM clients. Case management housing assistance and financial assistance partially mediated housing outcomes. No reliable mediators were found for psychiatric symptoms, and no reliable moderators were found for either housing or psychiatric symptoms. The study also made several important methodological advances in the analysis of longitudinal data in randomized experiments.     

What is society? Social thought and the arts of government

Following conservative politicians, neoliberal philosophers and radical critics, different strands of social science, including those using Foucault's governmentality approach, joined the questioning of the salience of 'society' and ideas of 'the social' over the last decades. When the social reappeared, it was often in the moral domains of community and civil society. This argument re-evaluates the contribution of Foucauldian histories, or 'genealogies', of the social to these fundamental questions. Drawing upon them, it attends to their arguments concerning the place of social thought on the modern episteme in relation to economics, the emergence of the idea of 'society' with the modern arts of government of the state, and the formation of the 'social question'. The argument here allows that preconditions of formation of 'society' lie in the legal and political techniques of the territorial sovereign state. However, the literature under investigation indicates the implicit normativity of an idea of 'society' as a 'problematic unity' and the enduring necessity of a social domain in a law-governed state with a relatively independent economic sphere. This discussion thus seeks to contribute to the wider revaluation and redeployment of these terms in today's context.     

Can one TV show make a difference? Will & Grace and the Parasocial Contact Hypothesis

Television has an opportunity to influence beliefs about groups with which individuals typically may have little direct social contact. This study describes a synthesis of the Contact Hypothesis and the concept of Parasocial Interaction to pose what we call the Parasocial Contact Hypothesis to test whether exposure to gay men on Will & Grace can influence attitudes toward gay men in general. Based on a study of 245 university students, this study examines the relationships among number and intimacy of gay social contacts, parasocial interaction, viewing frequency of Will & Grace, and scores on Herek's Attitudes Toward Gay Men and Lesbians scale. Increased viewing frequency and parasocial interaction were found to correlate with lower levels of sexual prejudice-a relationship that was most pronounced for those with the least amount of social contact with lesbians and gay men.     

Optimal population and exhaustible resource constraints

A large literature considers the optimal size and growth rate of the human population, trading off the utility value of additional people with the costs of a larger population. In this literature, an important parameter is the social weight placed on population size; a standard result is that a planner with a larger weight on population chooses larger population levels and growth rates. We demonstrate that this result is conditionally overturned when an exhaustible resource constraint is introduced: if the discount rate is small enough, the optimal population today decreases with the welfare weight on population size. That is, a more total-utilitarian social planner could prefer a smaller population today than a more average-utilitarian social planner. We also present a numerical illustration applied to the case of climate change, where we show that under plausible real-world parameter values, our result matters for the direction and magnitude of optimal population policy.     

Mental Health Trainees’ Explicit and Implicit Attitudes Toward Transracial Adoptive Families Headed by Lesbian,Gay, and Heterosexual Couples

We investigated 109 (79.8% female; 76% White, and 83.5% Heterosexual) mental health trainees’ explicit and implicit attitudes toward heterosexual, lesbian, and gay White couples adopting and raising Black children. To determine explicit attitudes, we used a vignette depicting a Black child ready for adoption and three types of equally qualified White families who were headed by a heterosexual couple, gay couple, or lesbian couple. The trainees were asked to indicate which type of family they preferred to adopt the child. To determine implicit attitudes, we used the computer programed latency-based multifactor implicit association test (IAT) protocol. The IAT data were collected from each participant individually. Explicit data showed that over 80% of the participants indicated no strong preference in terms of which type of family should adopted the child. However, IAT data showed that the trainees implicitly preferred lesbian couples. Overall, the degree of congruence between explicit and implicit was very low. Implications for training were discussed.