全文获取类型
收费全文 | 515篇 |
免费 | 28篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 55篇 |
民族学 | 5篇 |
人口学 | 35篇 |
丛书文集 | 1篇 |
理论方法论 | 64篇 |
综合类 | 10篇 |
社会学 | 345篇 |
统计学 | 28篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 5篇 |
2020年 | 11篇 |
2019年 | 19篇 |
2018年 | 18篇 |
2017年 | 24篇 |
2016年 | 20篇 |
2015年 | 17篇 |
2014年 | 21篇 |
2013年 | 112篇 |
2012年 | 16篇 |
2011年 | 22篇 |
2010年 | 11篇 |
2009年 | 11篇 |
2008年 | 5篇 |
2007年 | 6篇 |
2006年 | 11篇 |
2005年 | 12篇 |
2004年 | 21篇 |
2003年 | 16篇 |
2002年 | 11篇 |
2001年 | 13篇 |
2000年 | 10篇 |
1999年 | 2篇 |
1998年 | 8篇 |
1997年 | 3篇 |
1996年 | 6篇 |
1995年 | 10篇 |
1994年 | 3篇 |
1993年 | 8篇 |
1992年 | 5篇 |
1991年 | 6篇 |
1990年 | 2篇 |
1989年 | 3篇 |
1988年 | 5篇 |
1987年 | 2篇 |
1986年 | 5篇 |
1985年 | 4篇 |
1984年 | 6篇 |
1983年 | 6篇 |
1982年 | 9篇 |
1981年 | 3篇 |
1980年 | 6篇 |
1979年 | 5篇 |
1978年 | 4篇 |
1977年 | 2篇 |
1976年 | 4篇 |
1973年 | 2篇 |
1972年 | 2篇 |
1969年 | 3篇 |
1966年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有543条查询结果,搜索用时 46 毫秒
61.
Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
J. Haslett M. Whiley S. Bhattacharya M. Salter-Townshend Simon P. Wilson J. R. M. Allen B. Huntley F. J. G. Mitchell 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2006,169(3):395-438
Summary. We consider the problem of reconstructing prehistoric climates by using fossil data that have been extracted from lake sediment cores. Such reconstructions promise to provide one of the few ways to validate modern models of climate change. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is presented and its use, inversely, is demonstrated in a relatively small but statistically challenging exercise: the reconstruction of prehistoric climate at Glendalough in Ireland from fossil pollen. This computationally intensive method extends current approaches by explicitly modelling uncertainty and reconstructing entire climate histories. The statistical issues that are raised relate to the use of compositional data (pollen) with covariates (climate) which are available at many modern sites but are missing for the fossil data. The compositional data arise as mixtures and the missing covariates have a temporal structure. Novel aspects of the analysis include a spatial process model for compositional data, local modelling of lattice data, the use, as a prior, of a random walk with long-tailed increments, a two-stage implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and a fast approximate procedure for cross-validation in inverse problems. We present some details, contrasting its reconstructions with those which have been generated by a method in use in the palaeoclimatology literature. We suggest that the method provides a basis for resolving important challenging issues in palaeoclimate research. We draw attention to several challenging statistical issues that need to be overcome. 相似文献
62.
63.
Individuals who had failed‐to‐thrive for non‐organic reasons received psychosocial intervention which was tailor‐made to their particular needs during childhood. Their progress was followed up over 20 years later, including their physical growth and social and cognitive functioning. Not all clients showed the same outcomes. The quality of the parental relationship and the reason for the growth‐faltering were found to be related to the outcomes at 20 years. Unless they experienced a positive and sustained change in their life or circumstances, individuals who had experienced abuse showed poorer outcomes than those whose growth‐faltering had been thought due to neglect, lack of parenting or feeding dif?culties. Abuse tended to be a contributing factor to growth‐faltering more frequently in families where the parents were observed to have a poor relationship with each other. However, a signi?cant change in the quality of care given to the child and the emotional environment experienced by them resulted in positive outcomes 20 years later despite experiencing abuse during childhood. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
64.
Brian R. Spisak Allen E. Grabo Richard D. Arvey Mark van Vugt 《The Leadership Quarterly》2014,25(5):805-816
The current contribution extends theorizing on leadership and the exploration–exploitation dilemma using an evolutionary perspective. A theoretical connection is made between the exploration–exploitation dilemma and age-biased leadership preferences for exploratory change versus stable exploitation. For the majority of human evolution our species was semi- or entirely nomadic and the trade-off between exploration versus exploitation had substantial physical- and experience-based requirements which align with leadership opportunities as moderated by age. Thus, given the consistency and importance of correctly assigning leadership for the exploration–exploitation dilemma, human evolution has likely selected for age-biased leadership endorsement. Across three experiments we find that younger-looking leaders are endorsed for times of exploratory change and older-looking leaders for stable exploitation. Further, our results indicated that older leaders are endorsed for leading conservative exploitation of nonrenewable resources and younger leaders for exploration of renewable alternatives (i.e., green leadership). The results introduce an age-biased leadership endorsement hypothesis. 相似文献
65.
66.
Beth Allen 《Social Choice and Welfare》1996,13(1):11-16
If preferences are continuous monotone complete preorders, then there is a continuous social choice aggregation rule which respects unanimity and is anonymous. The simple proof of this result involves a straightforward application of well-known properties of the closed convergence topology. 相似文献
67.
Deng Huang Theodore T. Allen 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2005,54(2):443-463
Summary. When experimentation on a real system is expensive, data are often collected by using cheaper, lower fidelity surrogate systems. The paper concerns response surface methods in the context of variable fidelity experimentation. We propose the use of generalized least squares to generate the predictions. We also present perhaps the first optimal designs for variable fidelity experimentation, using an extension of the expected integrated mean-squared error criterion. Numerical tests are used to compare the performance of the method with alternatives and to investigate the robustness to incorporated assumptions. The method is applied to automotive engine valve heat treatment process design in which real world data were mixed with data from two types of computer simulation. 相似文献
68.
Allen M. Parkman 《Economic inquiry》2004,42(3):483-495
In this article, a new element is introduced into the household production function: gifts. Gifts occur when spouses use their time and/or incomes to produce commodities that usually only have value to their spouse, such as empathy and understanding. The difficulty of identifying a potential mate's capacity to produce gifts prior to marriage and of negotiating for them during marriage is argued as having contributed to the increase in the divorce rate. Evidence is provided that women are the spouses most likely to seek a divorce and part of their motivation is an inadequate receipt of gifts during marriage. 相似文献
69.
The debate about the veracity of incest memories uncovered in therapy is often impassioned and acrimonious. Recent statements by various professional organizations, advising that corroboration of recovered memories is the only method for determining their accuracy, have not decreased the intensity of this debate. This response to Madden and Parody's paper discusses the importance of corroboration of recovered memories of sexual abuse and details the clinical, scientific, and legal foundations for this approach. A point of confusion in Madden and Parody's paper and an important aspect of this response is the difference between clients who uncover completely new memories of childhood sexual abuse and clients who enter therapy with a history of sexual abuse. Those clients with new memories are the focus of this debate and the standard of care proposed in this paper. 相似文献
70.
We examine how no-fault divorce law affects the age at first marriage, when everyone has a different value of marriage. The heterogeneity of individual values implies an unambiguous negative effect on the variance of marriage age. We test this hypothesis with marriage records from 1970 to 1995. Controlling for state-level heterogeneity and for time trends, the standard deviation of the log age at first marriage drops by approximately 5% with the introduction of no-fault divorce. We find that the mean age at first marriage increases slightly, suggesting that the mean person is slightly worse off with no-fault divorce. (JEL K0 , D1 ) 相似文献