Uncertainty in Climate Change Modeling: Can Global Sensitivity Analysis Be of Help?

Integrated assessment models offer a crucial support to decisionmakers in climate policy making. For a full understanding and corroboration of model results, analysts ought to identify the exogenous variables that influence the model results the most (key drivers), appraise the relevance of interactions, and the direction of change associated with the simultaneous variation of uncertain variables. We show that such information can be directly extracted from the data set produced by Monte Carlo simulations. Our discussion is guided by the application to the well‐known DICE model of William Nordhaus. The proposed methodology allows analysts to draw robust insights into the dependence of future atmospheric temperature, global emissions, and carbon costs and taxes on the model's exogenous variables.     

Therapist effects on dropout in couple therapy

Marriage and family therapy scholars have argued that therapists play a crucial role in successful couple therapy, yet little research has empirically documented that the therapist in couple therapy has a significant impact on outcomes. Known as the study of therapist effects, this study sought to assess the amount of variance attributed to the therapist in couple therapy outcomes. Using dropout as the outcome variable, this study analyzed data from 1,192 couples treated by 90 masters and doctoral student therapists at a university‐based training clinic. Results from multilevel analysis indicated that therapists in the sample accounted for 9.4% of the variance in couple dropout while controlling for initial couple impairment. Therapist gender and therapist experience did not significantly predict variability in therapist effects. These findings give promise to future research on therapist effects in couple therapy and encourage exploration into which therapist characteristics and behaviors contribute to successful clinical outcome.     

‘Talking the talk’ – a discursive approach to evaluating management development

Much evaluation practice is guided by a theoretical anachronism. Systematized and formulaic approaches of chain reaction models of evaluation are based on conceptions of management which are over 50 years old. This study presents an evaluation of a management development intervention which used evidence of discursive shift in learners as an indicator of attitudinal and behavioural change brought about by the learning programme. The approach taken characterizes the learning event and the evaluation process as interventions which have the capacity to help learners to shape their identity and in which language is a mediator of learning. The results of the study, which applies both quantitative and qualitative techniques, are used to argue in favour of the deployment of a model of evaluation which has a focus on social and relational aspects of a managers' role.     

A longitudinal study of newcomer role adjustment in US organizations

Abstract

This paper examines the socialization and adjustment experiences of newcomers to organizations from a role stress perspective. A longitudinal field study is reported which tested a three-stage socialization model using physiological and psychological distress symptoms, general satisfaction, and intention to leave the organization as indicators of newcomer adjustment. Data were collected from newcomers (the focal role) (N = 91) at three times during me study and also from their supervisors (the role senders) (N = 41). While the data confirmed the general utility of the model, it also suggested some revisions by way of new and altered pathways between some of the variables.     

REVIEWS

Johnson, S. M. (2004). The practice of emotionally focused couple therapy (2nd ed.).
Nichols, W. C. (Ed.). (2004). Family therapy around the world: A festschrif t for Florence W. Kaslow .
McCarthy, B., & McCarthy, E. J. (2004). Getting it right the first time: Creating a healthy marriage .
Quinn, W. H. (2004). Family solutions for youth at risk .     

What is really different about rural and urban firms? Some evidence from Northern Ireland

The economic structure of rural regions in Europe is becoming increasingly similar to that of urban regions. Therefore, what is really different about rural and urban firms? This question is investigated here through a comparison of matched manufacturing plants in rural and urban areas of Northern Ireland. The analysis finds that remote rural, accessible rural and urban manufacturing plants that are matched with respect to their industrial sector, size, age and ownership structure are nevertheless different in certain key respects. Remote rural manufacturing plants are seen to follow a production-cost-oriented export strategy, while accessible rural firms adopt a more innovation-oriented export strategy. In contrast, urban manufacturing plants use their reputation-based competitive advantage to service relatively large local markets. The competitiveness of rural firms is particularly influenced by the quality of transport infrastructure, the availability of suitably qualified staff, and external trade factors. Given this complex set of factors, effective policy initiatives in this area may involve measures that cut across departmental and national boundaries.     

Web-based nutrition education for college students: Is it feasible?

College students have poor nutrition habits and often exhibit at-risk weight control behaviors; yet, health promotion efforts on campuses often target other risk behaviors such as alcohol and tobacco use. The goal of this study was to determine program content and examine the feasibility of a web-based nutrition education program for college students using innovative applications of tailoring, targeting and personalization of information. Comprehensive program planning entailed three phases: focus groups and use of concept mapping methodology, prototype web program development, and feasibility testing of the prototype. Results of concept mapping suggested that students and experts agreed on the relative importance of the major content areas unique to the college audience. A prototype web program, informed by health promotion theories, was developed and evaluated. Students and college health professionals participated in the feasibility evaluation, which included acceptance and usability testing of the prototype. Mean scores were computed for the acceptance ratings that indicated that the prototype web program was not only feasible, but also compelling and relevant for the college audience. In conclusion, a tailored, web-based interactive nutrition program could potentially be used to provide individualized nutrition information to encourage college students to adopt healthy eating behaviors.     

Do current consent and confidentiality requirements impede or enhance research with children with learning disabilities?

Recent changes in UK legislation on data protection and confidentiality have affected key aspects of the research process. They have led to much stricter approaches to research governance, leading in turn to more stringent scrutiny by medical ethics committees and National Health Service (NHS) Trusts. Almost all stages of research are affected, from participant recruitment to storage of data, eating into researcher time and consuming significant resources. The resulting constraints are examined in relation to a research programme on development in children with learning disabilities, highlighting the practical and ethical issues arising, with informed consent a particular challenge. Being multidisciplinary, learning disability research has to satisfy numerous regulatory bodies. For participants' rights to be fully respected and for projects to be completed within time and on budget, all contributors to the research process, including funders, need to be aware of the additional implications and demands imposed by the new regulations.     

Improved generalized Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) for model assessment

The Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) can be used to calculate the relative variance contribution of model input parameters to the variance of predictions made with functional models. It is widely used in the analyses of complicated process modeling systems. This study provides an improved transformation procedure of the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) for non-uniform distributions that can be used to represent the input parameters. Here it is proposed that the cumulative probability be used instead of probability density when transforming non-uniform distributions for FAST. This improvement will increase the accuracy of transformation by reducing errors, and makes the transformation more convenient to be used in practice. In an evaluation of the procedure, the improved procedure was demonstrated to have very high accuracy in comparison to the procedure that is currently widely in use.