Unions,PAC contributions,and the NAFTA vote

Political action committees (PACs), especially those controlled by organized labor and business, have been shown to affect Congressional voting. We explore how PACs influenced the House of Representatives’ vote on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The NAFTA vote is analyzed because organized labor strongly opposed the treaty while business generally supported it and because of the straight-forward voting generated by its fast-track status. Probit analysis of a unique, unpublished data set containing information about PAC and non-PAC contributions to the 1992 House election campaigns demonstrates that Representatives who depended largely on labor PACs tended to oppose NAFTA, while Representatives who derived a large proportion of their campaign contributions from business PACs tended to favor its passage.     

Optimal pension funding with demographic instability and endogenous returns on investment

This paper tries to explore some optimal funding policies for pension systems in a general equilibrium setting where funding affects returns on investment and wages through its impact on capital formation. This is done in the context of irregular demographic evolutions such as those expected in developed countries for the next century. Particular attention is given to the intergenerational welfare criterion which is used for designing optimal policies. It appears that funding receives low justification with a welfare criterion which assumes a high substitutability between consumptions of successive cohorts, implying a low concern for intergenerational equity. Funding is highly justified in the opposite case where a high level of consumption for some cohorts is not considered as a compensation for low consumption by others. However the optimal patterns of transfers and savings which are found in this latter case are not straightforward. Some simpler funding rules are explored in the last section of this paper, which show that non-optimal funding may imply, on the contrary, a high level of inequality between subsequent generations.Paper presented at the ISPE-conference Fiscal implications of an ageing population, May–June 1990 at Vaalsbroek, The Netherlands. We thank Pierre Pestieau for his remarks on a first draft of this paper. We also thank for their comments our two discussants Carol Propper and Lans Bovenberg, as well as other participants to the ISPE Conference. Any errors are, of course, ours.     

A simple,automatic and adaptive bivariate density estimator based on conditional densities

The standard approach to non-parametric bivariate density estimation is to use a kernel density estimator. Practical performance of this estimator is hindered by the fact that the estimator is not adaptive (in the sense that the level of smoothing is not sensitive to local properties of the density). In this paper a simple, automatic and adaptive bivariate density estimator is proposed based on the estimation of marginal and conditional densities. Asymptotic properties of the estimator are examined, and guidance to practical application of the method is given. Application to two examples illustrates the usefulness of the estimator as an exploratory tool, particularly in situations where the local behaviour of the density varies widely. The proposed estimator is also appropriate for use as a pilot estimate for an adaptive kernel estimate, since it is relatively inexpensive to calculate.     

Relations in frozen places: Observations on winter public order

The effects of prolonged winter weather on public order have been overlooked in sociological research literature. A naturalistic observational study conducted over a two year period using team field research methods documents several phenomena characteristic of winter public order. First, there were exaggerated body glosses or officious displays, second, decreased numbers of people, third, displays of a festive attitude, and fourth, an attitude of adventure and exploration. These observations allow a generalization that winter public behavior differs from that described by Goffman in that conditions provide greater freedom to the individual in the uses to which urban territory can be put. This democratization of urban space is explained in terms of Homan's model of group processes which suggests that public norms will be suspended with decreased activity and interaction.

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The demography of disability and the effects of immigrant history: Older Asians in the United States

Using data from the 2000 U.S. census, we compare the older Asian population with U.S.-born, non-Hispanic whites with respect to three indicators of disability. Insofar as any Asian "advantage" in health vis-a-vis whites exists among the population aged 65 and over, our evidence suggests that it occurs primarily among the U.S.-born segments of this population. We also investigate how differences in disability levels among Asian immigrant groups are influenced by country of birth and by the combined effects of duration of residence in the United States and life cycle stage at entry. These results highlight the diversity of the older Asian population with respect to the ways in which immigration and origin history are linked to disability outcomes. We conclude that in later life, immigrant status confers few disability advantages among the Asian population in the United States.     

Differentiated leader–member exchange,justice climate,and performance: Main and interactive effects

Leaders form different quality leader–member exchange (LMX) relationships with their subordinates. This variable treatment termed LMX differentiation can have negative effects on individuals' behavior and attitudes. In this study, we examined the cross-level main effect of justice climate on task performance and the moderating role of justice climate on the relationship between LMX differentiation and task performance. We tested these two hypotheses using a field study of 90 subordinates nested under 27 supervisors. Procedural justice climate, not distributive justice climate, was found to positively influence subordinate task performance. Further, distributive justice climate, not procedural justice climate, was found to moderate the LMX differentiation–task performance relationship; such that the relationship was positive when distributive justice climate was high and negative when distributive justice climate was low. Findings and future directions are discussed.     

Model Uncertainty and Bayesian Model Averaged Benchmark Dose Estimation for Continuous Data

The benchmark dose (BMD) approach has gained acceptance as a valuable risk assessment tool, but risk assessors still face significant challenges associated with selecting an appropriate BMD/BMDL estimate from the results of a set of acceptable dose‐response models. Current approaches do not explicitly address model uncertainty, and there is an existing need to more fully inform health risk assessors in this regard. In this study, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) BMD estimation method taking model uncertainty into account is proposed as an alternative to current BMD estimation approaches for continuous data. Using the “hybrid” method proposed by Crump, two strategies of BMA, including both “maximum likelihood estimation based” and “Markov Chain Monte Carlo based” methods, are first applied as a demonstration to calculate model averaged BMD estimates from real continuous dose‐response data. The outcomes from the example data sets examined suggest that the BMA BMD estimates have higher reliability than the estimates from the individual models with highest posterior weight in terms of higher BMDL and smaller 90th percentile intervals. In addition, a simulation study is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the BMA BMD estimator. The results from the simulation study recommend that the BMA BMD estimates have smaller bias than the BMDs selected using other criteria. To further validate the BMA method, some technical issues, including the selection of models and the use of bootstrap methods for BMDL derivation, need further investigation over a more extensive, representative set of dose‐response data.