The Performance of Periodic Autoregressive Models in Forecasting Seasonal U.K. Consumption

The parameters of a periodic model are allowed to vary according to the time at which observations are made. Periodic autoregressive models are fitted to the quarterly values of seasonally unadjusted real nondurable consumers' expenditure for the United Kingdom and its components. The periodic model offers no improvement over conventional specifications if the aggregate is modeled directly. On the other hand, periodic models generally perform well for the components, which contain additional seasonal information. The choice between a periodic or nonperiodic specification is also shown to have an important influence on the resulting dynamic properties.     

The optimal size of choice sets in choice experiments

In this paper, we establish the optimal size of the choice sets in generic choice experiments for asymmetric attributes when estimating main effects only. We give an upper bound for the determinant of the information matrix when estimating main effects and all two-factor interactions for binary attributes. We also derive the information matrix for a choice experiment in which the choice sets are of different sizes and use this to determine the optimal sizes for the choice sets.     

Understanding neighbourhoods, communities and environments: new approaches for social work research

This article discusses some new ways in which social work research can explore the interaction between neighbourhoods and child and adult wellbeing. The authors note that social work practices are often criticised for taking an individualistic approach and paying too little attention to the service user's environment. The article uses examples of research projects from Chile, the United States of America and Wales, to discuss the use of spatially oriented research methods for understanding neighbourhood factors. Quantitative, qualitative and mixed methods approaches that are particularly appropriate for investigating social work relevant topics are discussed in turn, including quantitative and qualitative uses for geographical information systems (GIS), hierarchical linear modelling (HLM) for analysing spatially clustered data and qualitative mobile interviews. The article continues with a discussion of the strengths and limitations of using spatially orientated research designs in social work research settings and concludes optimistically with suggestions for future directions in this area.     

“I Felt Guilty for Being So Happy”: Narrative Expressions and Management of Postdivorce Ambivalence

Scholars have highlighted ambivalence as a central feature of experiences of divorce and its aftermath and discussed ambivalence as an important issue for divorcees in adjusting to their new status. While most of this scholarship assesses postdivorce ambivalence as a psychological phenomenon to be addressed therapeutically, this study analyzes postdivorce ambivalence as an interpretive problem to be addressed sociologically. Following Merton’s (1976) insight that ambivalence be viewed as rooted in culture and social structure as well as individual psyche, we use a narrative analytic perspective to examine how divorcees both discursively express and interpretively manage their ambivalence. We then consider some of the more general cultural discourses—such as images of marriage and divorce—that shape or condition these narratives. Ultimately, we argue that conflicting stances toward marriage in the wider U.S. culture are at once important sources of postdivorce ambivalence and significant interpretive resources for its discursive management.     

Lessons in Democracy: America's Tenuous History with Immigrants

Taking an uncompromising stance on immigration enforcement, the Trump administration has been sharply criticized for its policies and racially coded rhetoric of immigrants as criminals or undesirables. Despite this criticism, the administration's policies fall in line with historically widespread, exclusionary, nativist and xenophobic attitudes towards immigrants. Much of the American immigrant story has been a tortuous struggle for equality, integration and civil rights. This essay takes a critical look at the complicated history of immigration policy during the last century, focusing on the social, economic and political forces that helped shape legislation.     

Nonverbal Social Sensing in Action: Unobtrusive Recording and Extracting of Nonverbal Behavior in Social Interactions Illustrated with a Research Example

Nonverbal behavior coding is typically conducted by “hand”. To remedy this time and resource intensive undertaking, we illustrate how nonverbal social sensing, defined as the automated recording and extracting of nonverbal behavior via ubiquitous social sensing platforms, can be achieved. More precisely, we show how and what kind of nonverbal cues can be extracted and to what extent automated extracted nonverbal cues can be validly obtained with an illustrative research example. In a job interview, the applicant’s vocal and visual nonverbal immediacy behavior was automatically sensed and extracted. Results show that the applicant’s nonverbal behavior can be validly extracted. Moreover, both visual and vocal applicant nonverbal behavior predict recruiter hiring decision, which is in line with previous findings on manually coded applicant nonverbal behavior. Finally, applicant average turn duration, tempo variation, and gazing best predict recruiter hiring decision. Results and implications of such a nonverbal social sensing for future research are discussed.     

Identity,selfhood and dementia: messages for social work

Dementia has been identified as a policy priority area for the European Union (EU). Given projected figures on the global increase in dementia over the next few decades, working with people with dementia is likely to become an even more prominent area of activity for social workers in older people's services. Recent research has begun to engage with the subjective experiences of people with dementia and there is considerable focus within nursing literature on their active efforts to maintain identity and selfhood. However, these issues have received little attention within the domain of social work. This paper reviews recent research on the subjective experiences of people with dementia and discusses the implications for social work in relation to: early intervention; communication and assessment, and support arrangements. Based on experience in England, it is argued that the current policy and practice context constrains social work's ability to respond to these issues and that a supportive organisational context, as well as high levels of skill, time and commitment, are required if concepts of personhood and citizenship are to have meaning in practice.     

Decent work for sustainable development in post‐crisis Nepal: Social policy challenges and a way forward

Although the Decent Work agenda has received significant attention in the context of sustainable development, the formulation and implementation of appropriate social policies in developing countries remain an underexplored subject. This article responds to this gap and traces country‐specific Decent Work related policies and programs in Nepal—which is recovering from two major crises: a decade‐long armed conflict that ended in 2006 as well as the 2015 earthquake. Drawing on Critical Policy Analysis framework, this article examines how key tenets of the International Labour Organisation's Decent Work platform, namely creation and provision of employment, social protection, social dialogue and rights at work have manifested in Nepal. The findings indicate that while attempts have been made to embrace the Decent Work agenda into social policies and programs, structural instability of political processes means that there is a lack of strategic directions to address a capacity deficit specific to the informal sector and outbound labour migrants. The article makes broader analytical contributions towards evaluating the implementation of social policies driven by the global priority in the context of developing nations with weak governance settings. In countries like Nepal, where the majority of workers are located within the informal sector and as such the administrative reach and effectiveness of Decent Work related social policies designed for the formal sector are limited.