Simple methods for evaluating and comparing binary experiments

We consider a confidence parametrization of binary information sources in terms of appropriate likelihood ratios. This parametrization is used for Bayesian belief updates and for the equivalent comparison of binary experiments. In contrast to the standard parametrization of a binary information source in terms of its specificity and its sensitivity, one of the two confidence parameters is sufficient for a Bayesian belief update conditional on a signal realization. We introduce a confidence-augmented receiver operating characteristic for comparisons of binary experiments for a class of “balanced” decision problems, relative to which the confidence order offers a higher resolution than Blackwell’s informativeness order.

Where observation is concerned, Chance favors only the prepared mind. —Louis Pasteur (1822–1895).

     

Efficiency determinants in retail stores: a Bayesian framework

This paper analyzes the impact of vertical integration, age, geographic expansion, and low price strategy on the cost efficiency of retail stores. We test our hypotheses using the innovative Bayesian frontier methodology. The data involve a sample of Spanish retail stores that operate in a highly competitive and dynamic environment. From the results, it is clear that cost efficiency is higher for stores that have: longer years in business, stronger geographical presence, and lower price offerings. Vertical integration, on the other hand, is negatively related to efficiency. Further discussions of these findings and related managerial implications are provided in the paper.     

The value of a name: Estimating the economic impact of public land designation

Public land designations have been shown to have significant impact on their contextual regional economies. This paper reviews the existing literature on how public lands impact the proximate regional economies in which they are situated. Based on this collected wisdom the paper synthesizes past lessons into a comprehensive impact methodology. This methodology distinguishes quality effects in terms of visitors’ willingness to pay for sites of higher quality and quantity effects in terms of additional visitation to such sites to give a more comprehensive methodology for characterizing visitation and economic impact of protected area designation. We focus on National Monuments and National Parks, given that these two types of public lands have the broadest popular exposure and feature the most reliable data. A case study is then presented for a hypothetical protected area in Ferry County, Washington, USA, applying this new methodology to assess the likely economic effects of different types of protected areas.     

MULTIVARIATE DECOMPOSITION FOR HAZARD RATE MODELS

We develop a regression decomposition technique for hazard rate models, where the difference in observed rates is decomposed into components attributable to group differences in characteristics and group differences in effects. The baseline hazard is specified using a piecewise constant exponential model, which leads to convenient estimation based on a Poisson regression model fit to person-period, or split-episode data. This specification allows for a flexible representation of the baseline hazard and provides a straightforward way to introduce time-varying covariates and time-varying effects. We provide computational details underlying the method and apply the technique to the decomposition of the black-white difference in first premarital birth rates into components reflecting characteristics and effect contributions of several predictors, as well as the effect contribution attributable to race differences in the baseline hazard .     

Evidence-based treatments for trauma among culturally diverse foster care youth: Treatment retention and outcomes

This study describes the implementation of three evidence-based treatments addressing traumatic stress symptoms within a wraparound foster care program in Illinois. Child–Parent Psychotherapy (CPP), Trauma-Focused Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (TF-CBT), and Structured Psychotherapy for Adolescents Responding to Chronic Stress (SPARCS) were implemented with a racially diverse sample of youth ages 3–18 at six agencies. Culturally sensitive adaptations were made to treatment approaches to improve client retention and outcomes. Data analyses revealed no racial differences in retention in the program and no differences in outcomes between minority youth exposed to the intervention and other participants. All three evidence-based treatments were effective in reducing symptoms and improving functioning among minority youth. Implementation issues, including challenges and culturally competent accommodations, are discussed.     

Ethics in Confucian and Christian management behavior: Taiwan and the United States contrasted

The ethical foundations for management behavior are examined for the people in Taiwan and from those within the United States. The influences for ethical actions can be traced to Confucian teachings and Christian doctrines. The authors present the philosophical differences between humanism for Chinese people and spiritualism for Christian people in the United States. Comparisons are made on how these principles affect the management behavior within organizations.