The Redistributive Effects of the Tax Wedge in Italy

Abstract. This paper presents an original data set of microdata on the tax wedge in Italy, obtained by using the microsimulation model ITAXMOD, developed at ISPE (Institute for Studies on Economic Planning). These data are used to measure the components of the tax wedge and their burden on the total cost of labour at the individual level. The results have been aggregated across income brackets, socio-economic groups and sectors of employment. These data are the necessary preliminary input for any redistributive analysis and in addition they make the available data for Italy comparable with those of other countries. Scant attention has been paid up to now to the redistributive aspects of the tax wedge, since most analyses are based on the income of the “average production worker” which is far from an ideal standard for comparison. The computation of the tax wedge for different brackets of total labour cost has been explored in two ways. The first is related to the differing weights of the components of the tax wedge on cost of labour and no particular hypothesis has been made about the incidence of these components. The results show that the burden of personal income taxation and of social security contributions is very high even for wage-earners in the lowest brackets (in 1992, the estimated tax wedge is more than 44% of total labour cost even in the second decile of the labour cost). That might discourage both labour supply and labour demand across the entire spectrum of deciles of cost of labour. The second line of research studies the incidence of personal income taxes and employees' social security contributions on gross earnings, under the maintained hypothesis that these two components of the tax wedge are shouldered by the employees.     

Job Flows and Plant Size Dynamics: Traditional Measures and Alternative Econometric Techniques

This paper measures the relation between job flows and establishment size, applying econometric techniques best suited for analyzing the long‐run dynamics of large cross‐section. Using a balanced panel from the Mexican manufacturing sector, it shows that, in line with existing evidence, initially small firms create proportionally more jobs than large firms. Since these results suffer from regression toward the mean, the paper applies an alternative technique and does not find any long‐run tendency of small establishments converging toward the mean. Furthermore, it shows how cross‐sectional dynamics across industries varies, and how it is linked to gross and net flows in each sector. Convergence to the mean is observed in relatively stable industries, with asymmetric dynamic behavior between expanding and declining industries.     

Is the Preference for Children so Low,or is the Price of Time so High? A simultaneous model of fertility and participation in Italy with cohort effects

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a simultaneous model of fertility and female participation in Italy, estimated with a sequence of cross-sections of micro data. Cohort dummies are used to capture permanent effects, including cohort changes in preferences. The cohort effects turn out to be not very significant, the point estimates suggesting a decreasing trend in participation and an increasing trend in fertility. The wage effects are instead rather strong and significant. The model produces simulations which are close to actual trends, which would seem largely explained by wage incentives. The explanation for a particularly high elasticity of fertility with respect to female wage should ultimately be searched for in the specific differences which characterize the Italian social and institutional environment.