Reconstructing the history of forest fire frequency: Identifying hazard rate change points using the bayes information criterion

A problem in model selection, namely the identification of multiple change points for a piece‐wise constant hazard rate, is discussed. A methodology using the Bayes Information Criterion is developed in an overdispersed survival model (with corresponding quasi‐likelihood function). The technique is used to identify changes in the historical frequency of forest fire. It is applied to two datasets derived from time‐since‐fire maps in the Canadian Rockies.     

Recent Trends in Conservatism: Evidence of Non-Unitary Patterns

Abstract

While some theoretical models of conservatism seemingly posit it to be a relatively stable personality characteristic, such approaches do not easily explain changes in individual or societal levels of conservatism. Recent research has assumed that increasing conservatism is general and unitary. The present study uses both trend data and true longitudinal data to examine changes in three different indicators of conservatism: political-economic conservatism, sex-role traditionalism and opposition to abortion. Analyses of trend data show the direction of political-economic increases in conservatism and opposition to abortion over the fifteen-year period 1971–1986. Sex-role traditionalism decreased, however, for the first but not the latter part of the same time period. Longitudinal comparisons for three separate cohorts show similar results for the period 1975 to 1980. Not only do these findings show that all measures of conservatism fail to exhibit the same trends, but also it is demonstrated that convergence on the aggregate level is not paralleled at the individual level.     

Culture in the transitions to modernity: seven pillars of a new research agenda

How did cultural dynamics help bring about the societies we now recognize as modern? This article constructs seven distinct models for how structures of signification and social meaning participated in the transitions to modernity in the West and, in some of the models, across the globe. Our models address: (1) the spread, via imitation, of modern institutions around the world (memetic replication); (2) the construal, by socio-cultural forces and by state organizations, of the modern citizen-subject (social subjectification); (3) the continual search for new meanings to replace traditional religious meaning-systems (compensatory reenchantment); (4) repeated attempts, in modern revolutions, to remake society completely, according to a utopian vision (ideological totalization); (5) the cultural origins and social consequences of scientific and humanistic worldviews (epistemic rift); (6) the gendered politics of state formation (patriarchal supercession); (7) the invention and production of race in the colonial encounter (racial recognition). We explicate the models in reverse chronological order, because in our synthesis, we argue that the original modern break results from a dynamic combination of racial recognition, patriarchal supercession, and epistemic rift; these changes set the stage for the four other processes we theorize. In addition to our synthesis, we also consider, from a more neutral perspective, the kinds of causal arguments upon which these models tend to rely, and thus explicate the analytical undergirding for the application of any of these models to empirical research on transitions to modernity. Throughout the article, we consider how these models might, and might not, mesh with other families of explanation, such as the politico-economic.     

Robust analysis of variance: a simulation study

Traditional analysis-of-variance (ANOVA) is based on 'normality' and 'homogeneity' assumptions. If either or both of these assumptions are violated, then the one-way ANOVA may not be as powerful as robust analysis-of-variance (RANOVA) alternatives. We report the results of a simulation study of alternatives to ANOVA: Welch (W*), the first and second methods of James (J1*, 3J11*), Brown- Forsythe (BF*), a Box (B*) procedure, and the Kruskal-Wallis (KW*) procedure. Random samples from 14 distributions—uniform (0, 1), normal (0, 1), contaminated normal, SLATE, SLACU, SLASH, double exponential, Cauchy, half-normal, chi-squared (two degrees of freedom), chi-squared (four degrees of freedom) log normal, gamma (1, 2) and beta (2, 5)—were generated using a composite linear congruential generator. Corresponding test satis tics were computed and the empirical size for each test is given for three nominal a values (0.10, 0.05, 0.01). For k, we choose 3, 4 and 6. The sample sizes and combinations of sample sizes were chosen at 4, 6, 8, 10, 15 and 20. We then propose an adaptive algorithm based on an ancillary statistic that selects an ANOVA/RANOVA procedure for either symmetric or asymmetric data distributions, and for equal or unequal sample sizes.     

A sequential two sample t test using welch type modification for unequal variances

The sequential analogue of the Behrens-Fisher problem is considered, The pooled-variance two sample sequential t test is modified to account for unequal variances. Operating cha-racteristic and average-sample-number curves are calculated for both the pooled variance and the modified t tests by computer simulations, An example is given using data from a tissue assay for breast cancer tumors.     

The effects of religion and social support on self-esteem and depression among the suddenly bereaved

This study examines the effects of religion and of the quantity and quality of social support on self-esteem and depression among the suddenly bereaved. Data are collected from medical examiner records and mail-back surveys from family members of victims of suicides and accidental deaths in a large metropolitan area of the United States. Recursive models of church attendance and social support on well-being are estimated using generalized least squares. We find that religious participation significantly increases self-esteem, but has no significant effect on depression. The findings also indicate that frequency of contact with friends and relatives, confiding with friends and relatives, and quality of recieved expressive support independently predict both self-esteem and depression.     

Implementation of a Posted Schedule to Increase Class-Wide Interobserver Agreement Assessment

The present study investigated the impact of an antecedent intervention in the form of a daily posted schedule on the interobserver agreement (IOA) assessment of educational goals implemented within a classroom at a private school serving individuals with disabilities. During baseline, the percentage of academic goals with interobserver agreement was low and stable (M?=?5%). Teacher performance improved during the intervention (M?=?92%). A reversal replicated this effect and performance maintained during 6-week, 6-month, and 1-year follow-up probes. Results suggest a daily posted schedule can effectively increase interobserver agreement assessment by direct-care teaching staff.