A note on the scale parameter of the dirichlet process

This paper gives an interpretation for the scale parameter of a Dirichlet process when the aim is to estimate a linear functional of an unknown probability distribution. We provide exact first and second posterior moments for such functionals under both informative and noninformative prior specifications. The noninformative case provides a normal approximation to the Bayesian bootstrap.     

Bell Canada: A case study of dynamics of new technologies in a changing environment

This paper provides a case example of a firm experiencing significant change. Bell Canada is Canada's largest public telecommunications carrier. In recent years the company has found itself facing more pervasive new challenges than it had over most of its 111 year history. Elements of change driving the firm have their origins in technological advances, changing market expectations and reform in regulatory conditions. The paper provides examples and reference points for the changing management information needs required to cope with the new environmental realities. In particular, attention is paid to the need for management and regulatory flexibility and responsiveness as keys for dealing with change.This case study suggests the need to adopt new approaches to relevant information needs as a company moves away from the well defined domain of its operations. It explores the more critical information needs that have charged in the Bell Canada context. Although the analysis has reflected a single firm in transition, and there are bound to be differences, we hope that it can provide at least general guidance for other firm facing the dynamics of new technologies and global environment.In business, the survival instinct is intensified by the emerging global competitive environment. In every industry there is evidence of increased attention to the fundamentals of viability under rapidly changing conditions. Companies facing the reality or impending threat of increased competition, often from new sources, may feel that their backs are to the wall. If, in addition, these companies face the difficult transition from a regulated monopoly to a more competitive environment the pressure can be powerful indeed.     

An example of preverbal determinants in a classical analysis

Ego psychology adds a valuable dimension to classical psychoanalytic theory and technique by illuminating some of the factors that shape the development of self and object representations. Insight into identity formation can, in some cases, uncover preverbal determinants that create obstacles to oedipal resolution. This is illustrated in an analytic case that reached an impasse during the termination phase, which was resolved when the preverbal component of this resistance was recognized and interpreted.     

Risk Characterization and the Weight of Evidence: Adapting Gatekeeping Concepts from the Courts

Risk characterization objectives include evaluating the weight of evidence underlying risk determinations, communicating that evaluation to nonexperts, guiding risk assessors to achieve consistency, and preserving deference for those reasonable expert judgments inherent in any risk determination. Similar objectives are shared by American courts that face the gatekeeping task of screening scientific evidence before it is presented to nonexpert factfinders, such as juries. This article surveys the judicial gatekeeping concepts of relevance, evidentiary reliability, legal sufficiency, presumptions, and standards of proof (particularly, preponderance of the evidence). It examines recent court decisions that have applied these concepts to the kinds of scientific information common in risk assessments, and suggests how to adapt these gatekeeping concepts for use in weight-of-evidence characterization. If we can develop and adopt a neutral framework for characterizing the weight of evidence underlying risk assessments, it might help clarify not only the current debate over risk characterization and risk management, but also the drafting of treaty provisions, such as those invoking the Precautionary Principle of international environmental law.     

COMMUNICATION and FREE-RIDING BEHAVIOR: THE VOLUNTARY CONTRIBUTION MECHANISM

We examine experimentally the role of active communication as a mechanism for improving economic efficiency in a voluntary contribution public goods environment. With no communication this environment has been shown to induce significant subop-timality, approaching zero contributions with iteration of the decision environment. Communication is shown to improve group optimality significantly. We examine the robustness of our results in increasingly complex environments and in environments in which there has been a history of communication but active communication is no longer available.     

Values and future''s research

The relationship of values to the future is a question that has not been given the attention it deserves. Surprise-free alternatives are the standard kinds of short term forecasts and all too often the basis for long term forecasts. This means nothing important will change enough to affect the present trends and there will be no new revolutionary inventions or attitudinal changes in the public of any significance. Technological forecasting is the half of the equation used for most forecasts of change. Public values and what they will be in the future are seldom forecast, yet they have much to do with how change takes place and is accepted. It is to the problem of value change that this paper will address itself.     

In their own words: The life experiences of Mexican-American and white pregnant adolescents and adolescent mothers

The results of an ethnographic study of 32 Mexican-American and 17 White adolescents are presented. Fifty percent or more of the respondents in both groups experienced parental loss during their childhood years. Little information was provided by parents to the adolescents regarding menses and physical maturation. While parent-adolescent conflict arose in both samples, the conflict for the Mexican-American adolescents centered around choice of girlfriends and boyfriends while multiple sources of conflict existed between the White respondents and their parents. White respondents were more sexually active than the Mexican-American respondents, but the latter reported more stable relationships with the father of the baby. The experiences of the adolescents are both summarized and presented in their own words.