Can recessions be predicted?

Can recessions, or serious turning points in general, be predicted? Or do forecasters tend to assume that the future will continue as an extension of the near past. Theoretical evidence and practical observations tend to support the hypothesis that forecasters are unduly influenced by current events and feel that booms or contractions in the economy will continue for much longer than they actually do. In the opinion of the authors this is a serious shortcoming of a good majority of those involved with forecasting who do not seem to be learning from experience. The basic question which the authors consider in this article is whether it is possible to avoid either of the two extremes. If this is possible, they argue that this will allow economic signs to be correctly interpreted, which ‘quite often can give clear indications of forthcoming changes in the level of economic activity’.     

Developing Age-Friendly Cities: Case Studies From Brussels and Manchester and Implications for Policy and Practice

Developing environments responsive to the aspirations of older people has become a major concern for social and public policy. Policies and programs directed at achieving “age-friendly” communities are considered to require a wide range of interventions, including actions at the level of the social and physical environment. This article compares the age-friendly approaches of two European cities, Brussels and Manchester, with a particular focus on policies and initiatives that promote active aging in an urban context. The article examines, first, the demographic, social, and multicultural contexts of Brussels and Manchester; second, the way in which both cities became members of the World Health Organization Global Network of Age-Friendly Cities and Communities; third, similarities and differences in the age-friendly approaches and actions adopted by both cities; and fourth, opportunities and barriers to the implementation of age-friendly policies. The article concludes by discussing the key elements and resources needed to develop age-friendly cities.     

Sensitivity to Confidence Cues Increases during the Second Year of Life

We investigated the emergence in infancy of a preference to imitate individuals who display confidence over lack of confidence. Eighteen‐ and 24‐month‐olds (N = 70) were presented with an experimenter who demonstrated the use of several objects accompanied by either nonverbal expressions of confidence or lack of confidence. At 24 months, infants were more likely to imitate the actions when demonstrated by a confident experimenter than by an unconfident experimenter; 18‐month‐olds showed no such preference. The experimenter then presented an additional imitation trial and a word‐learning trial while displaying a neutral expression. Twenty‐four‐month‐olds persisted in preferentially imitating a previously confident experimenter, but prior confidence had no effect on their word learning. These findings demonstrate a developmental increase in infants’ use of confidence cues toward the end of the second year of life.     

Serious case reviews: The lived experience of Black children

Despite the many high‐profile Black child deaths in England, race as a factor remains a largely underexplored factor of serious case reviews (SCRs). Evidence from analysis of SCRs indicates that race receives limited attention, or is virtually absent. Given that the main function of SCRs is to provide opportunities for learning lessons to improve practice, the way in which issues of race and culture may influence child protection processes for Black children is therefore of critical importance. In this article, we employ content analysis to examine the extent that race and cultural factors are considered in SCRs involving Black children. It is argued that race is often an important factor influencing Black children's experiences of abuse and neglect, as well as their encounters in the child protection system. This article therefore poses two key questions: (a) What questions are asked about race, ethnicity, and culture in SCRs concerning Black children? (b) How did the SCRs extract lessons to be learnt for improving practice to safeguard Black children? By extending the analysis of race and ethnicity in SCRs, this article furthers our understandings of the needs of Black children in the child protection system.     

Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends

Internal migration intensities fluctuate over time, but both migration levels and trends show great diversity. The dynamics underpinning these trends remain poorly understood because they are analyzed almost exclusively by applying period measures to cross-sectional data. This article proposes 10 cohort measures that can be applied to both prospective and retrospective data to systematically examine long-term trends. To demonstrate their benefits, the proposed measures are applied to retrospective survey data for England that provide residential histories from birth to age 50 for cohorts born between 1918 and 1957. The analysis reveals stable lifetime migration for men but increased lifetime migration for women associated with earlier ages at moving in adulthood and a compression of intervals between consecutive moves. The proposed cohort measures provide a more comprehensive picture of migration behavior and should be used to complement period measures in exploring long-term trends. Increasing availability of retrospective and longitudinal survey data means that researchers can now apply the proposed measures to a wide range of countries.     

Why is the History of Heterosexuality Essential? Beliefs About the History of Sexuality and Their Relationship to Sexual Prejudice

Heterosexual people with more positive attitudes to lesbians and gay men generally believe that homosexuality is immutable, is not a discrete social category, and that homosexuality exists in all cultures and time periods. Equivalent beliefs about heterosexuality and beliefs about components of sexuality have been less often researched. 136 people with diverse sexualities described heterosexuality as more universal across history and culture than homosexuality (Study 1). 69 heterosexual-identified participants similarly believed that love, identity, behavior, and desire were more historically invariant aspects of heterosexuality than of homosexuality (Study 2). Less prejudiced participants thought all components of homosexuality—except for identity—were more historically invariant. Teasing apart beliefs about the history of components of heterosexuality and homosexuality suggests that there is no “essential” relationship between sexual prejudice and the tension between essentialist and constructivist views about the history of sexual identity.