Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

Les normes comptables comme institution du capitalisme. Une analyse du passage aux normes IFRS en Europe à partir de 2005

In 2002, the European Union changed direction from its past efforts to harmonise European accounting systems and turned instead to a subcontractor, requiring listed European companies to adopt accounting standards drawn up by a private London-based organisation, the IASB (International Accounting Standards Board), which had until then had no public mandate. This decision was all the more significant because the EU has no institutional means of control over the IASB, although it was the first geographical group to decide to impose these standards on its businesses. IASB standards are rooted in the “anglo-saxon” tradition of standardisation for the financial markets, and the view of the enterprise they promote diverges from the accounting traditions of continental European capitalism. This article shows how the new standards are transforming the concept of enterprise, and examines the span of factors that brought about what is a major institutional change for European capitalism. — Special issue: New patterns of institutions.     

Factors Affecting Children’s Adjustment to the Death of a Parent: The Social Work Professional’s Viewpoint

This study investigated factors affecting the adjustment of parentally bereaved children by reviewing existing literature and comparing it to observations made by professional social workers. Interviewees had between 1 1/2 and 22 years of experience in counseling bereaved children. The specific factors examined were age and sex of the bereaved child, circumstances of the death, and adjustment of remaining caregiver. Participants (n = 5) responded to an interview instrument specifically designed for this study which contained seven in-depth, open-ended questions. Participants’ replies were mostly in accordance with the literature, but also generated some new perspectives that had not been previously considered for this study and had not appeared in the literature. This study has implications for practice with parentally bereaved children and their surviving caregivers.Rebecca M. Hope, LCSW, Outpatient Clinician, New River Valley Community Services, 700 University City Boulevard, Blacksburg, VA 24060.Diane M. Hodge, Ph.D. is an Associate Professor of Social Work, Radford University, P.O. Box 6958, Radford, VA 24141; e-mail: dmhodge@radford.eduAddress correspondence to Rebecca M. Hope, LCSW, Outpatient Clinician, New River Valley Community Services, 700 University City Boulevard, Blacksburg, VA 24060; e-mail: rmhope@verizon.net     

Infants' Responses to Gender‐Inconsistent Events

Toddlers' knowledge of the stereotyping of traditionally feminine and masculine household activities was examined using the preferential looking paradigm. Seventy‐seven 24‐month‐old infants observed a series of 9 pairs of photographs, each portraying a male and female adult engaged in the same stereotyped or gender‐neutral activity (e.g., ironing, hammering, or reading). Longer looking times were predicted on stimuli inconsistent with gender stereotypes (e.g., looking longer at the man putting on lipstick than at the woman). The results suggested that toddlers have acquired some knowledge of the gender stereotyping of feminine activities by their 2nd birthday.     

Sources of drug information among adolescent students

A sample of 1023 eighth and tenth grade students in small to medium-sized central Texas school districts was assessed to determine the amount of information they receive from ten sources about six categories of drugs. The amount of information males reported receiving about each drug category was significantly greater than what females reported, and the amount of information that eighth graders reported receiving about each drug category was significantly greater than what tenth graders reported. Television was the primary source of drug information for all categories of drugs except inhalants, for which friends and television were equally important sources. Parents and printed media (magazines or newspapers) were of secondary importance, followed by friends and teachers. Adolescents were less likely to receive drug-related information from experience, siblings, church, doctors, and police. The reliance on the mass media for drug information in smaller school districts is a pattern which has been previously observed in larger urban districts. This consistency suggests that mass media approaches to drug education are likely to be as effective in rural areas and smaller towns as they are among urban adolescents. Implications for television programming are discussed.     

Housing affordability among elderly female heads of household in nonmetropolitan areas

This study investigates the extent and nature of housing affordability for elderly nonmetropolitan female heads of household using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The results indicate that over one-third of elderly nonmetropolitan female heads of household experience housing poverty and that those who rent, who have fair to poor health, and who are minorities are particularly vulnerable. Housing affordability, measured by the concept of housing poverty, identifies households struggling to meet basic needs while the conventional 25% of income for housing expenditures ratio identifies a larger population. The findings suggest the need for multifaceted public policies to address the problem of housing poverty. Her research interests include housing affordability, housing and community vitality, and decision making. She received her Ph.D. from Purdue University. Sooyoun Park is in the same department as a Project Assistant on a USDA-funded research project entitled “Housing Affordability in Rural Areas,” which is a joint project between Nebraska and Wisconsin. Her research interests focus on housing management behavior in relation to housing expenditure burden. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.