COWORDS: a probabilistic model for multiple word clouds

Word clouds constitute one of the most popular statistical tools for the visual analysis of text documents because they provide users with a quick and intuitive understanding of the content. Despite their popularity for visualizing single documents, word clouds are not appropriate to compare different text documents. Independently generating word clouds for each document leads to configurations where the same word is typically located in widely different positions. This makes it very difficult to compare two or more word clouds. This paper introduces COWORDS, a new stochastic algorithm to create multiple word clouds, including one for each document. The shared words in multiple documents are placed in the same position in all clouds. Similar documents produce similar and compact clouds, making it easier to simultaneously compare and interpret several word clouds. The algorithm is based on a probability distribution in which the most probable configurations are those with a desirable visual aspect, such as a low value for the total distance between the words in all clouds. The algorithm output is a set of word clouds that are randomly selected from this probability distribution. The selection procedure uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. We present several examples that illustrate the performance and visual results that can be obtained by our algorithm.     

Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

An exercise in futurity: servitude as pathway to young Filipino men’s education- to-work transition

This article examines how young Filipino men looking to work in international seafaring deploy servitude as a means of attaining education-to-work transition. It focuses on those applying to work for free as ‘utility men’ (gofer or flunkey) in Manila’s manning and crewing agencies that supply seafarers to ship operators around the world in exchange for the promise of boarding a ship. Based on participant observation and life history interviews, the article accounts for how they transform their servitude into diskarte – strategy by which they navigate the limited employment opportunities in the Philippines – by constructing their ‘utility manning’ as an informal and negotiated pathway to employment. The young Filipino men’s seeking and enduring servitude, geared towards gleaning better social possibilities, becomes a profoundly rational act of investing in and securing their future.     

Attitudes of social work students towards older people

Demographic ageing is a challenge for many countries. Even though Turkey has a relatively younger demographic composition, the proportion of the older people (65+) within the population is rapidly increasing. Within this framework, older people are becoming more important clients for both social work students and social workers in Turkey. This study aims to reveal the attitudes of social work students towards older people and determine the various factors that affect their views on older persons. In the scope of the project, Kogan's Attitude Towards Old People Scale was applied to 419 social work undergraduate students at a university located in Central Anatolia. The findings showed that social work students scored a mean of 130.96 and they generally had positive attitudes towards older people. The correlation between year of study, gender and age was not statistically significant. However, having lived mostly in urban areas was positively correlated with the mean Kogan scores and this finding was found to be statistically significant. Exposure to personal contact with older people at both the personal and professional levels was influential in shaping attitudes about the older people.     

Combining QMRA and Epidemiology to Estimate Campylobacteriosis Incidence

The disease burden of pathogens as estimated by QMRA (quantitative microbial risk assessment) and EA (epidemiological analysis) often differs considerably. This is an unsatisfactory situation for policymakers and scientists. We explored methods to obtain a unified estimate using campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands as an example, where previous work resulted in estimates of 4.9 million (QMRA) and 90,600 (EA) cases per year. Using the maximum likelihood approach and considering EA the gold standard, the QMRA model could produce the original EA estimate by adjusting mainly the dose‐infection relationship. Considering QMRA the gold standard, the EA model could produce the original QMRA estimate by adjusting mainly the probability that a gastroenteritis case is caused by Campylobacter. A joint analysis of QMRA and EA data and models assuming identical outcomes, using a frequentist or Bayesian approach (using vague priors), resulted in estimates of 102,000 or 123,000 campylobacteriosis cases per year, respectively. These were close to the original EA estimate, and this will be related to the dissimilarity in data availability. The Bayesian approach further showed that attenuating the condition of equal outcomes immediately resulted in very different estimates of the number of campylobacteriosis cases per year and that using more informative priors had little effect on the results. In conclusion, EA was dominant in estimating the burden of campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands. However, it must be noted that only statistical uncertainties were taken into account here. Taking all, usually difficult to quantify, uncertainties into account might lead to a different conclusion.     

The generalized odd half-Cauchy family of distributions: Properties and applications

We introduce and study general mathematical properties of a new generator of continuous distributions with one extra parameter called the generalized odd half-Cauchy family. We present some special models and investigate the asymptotics and shapes. The new density function can be expressed as a linear mixture of exponentiated densities based on the same baseline distribution. We derive a power series for the quantile function. We discuss the estimation of the model parameters by maximum likelihood and prove empirically the flexibility of the new family by means of two real data sets.     

GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION TO PREVENT BANKRUPTCY: THE EFFECT OF BLIND‐BIDDING LAWS ON MOVIE THEATERS

In the 1970s motion picture studios increased their use of blind bidding and nonrefundable guarantees in an attempt to reduce the risks associated with producing a small number of large budget films. However, theater owners claimed that blind bidding and guarantees shifted risk to them and increased the likelihood of bankruptcy, because they were required to bid for the right to exhibit a movie without seeing it first. In response to the lobbying of theater owners, 24 states passed laws between 1978 and 1984 that banned blind bidding, while 7 states also banned nonrefundable guarantees. This paper provides the first empirical analysis of the conflicting claims made by theater owners and movie studios about the impact of these laws on the survival rates of independent theaters, admission prices, and delays in the release of movies. We find that the laws were not only ineffective in keeping theater owners at risk of bankruptcy from exiting the market; they may have been even detrimental to those theater owners converting theaters to multiplexes at that time. (JEL K, L)     

Dashed Hopes,Dashed Selves? A Sociometer Perspective on Self‐esteem Change Across the Transition to Secondary School

The transition from primary to secondary school challenges children's psychological well‐being. A cross‐transitional longitudinal study (N = 306; mean age = 12.2 years) examined why some children's self‐esteem decreases across the transition whereas other children's self‐esteem does not. Children's expected social acceptance in secondary school was measured before the transition; their actually perceived social acceptance was measured after the transition. Self‐esteem and Big Five personality traits were measured both pre‐ and posttransition. Self‐esteem changed as a function of the discrepancy between children's expected and actually perceived social acceptance. Furthermore, neuroticism magnified self‐esteem decreases when children's ‘hopes were dashed'—when they experienced disappointing levels of social acceptance. These findings provide longitudinal support for sociometer theory across the critical transition to secondary school.