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41.
Christian P. Robert Xiao-Li Meng Jesper Møller Jeffrey S Rosenthal C Jennison M. A Hurn F Al-Awadhi Peter McCullagh Christophe Andrieu Arnaud Doucet Petros Dellaportas Ioulia Papageorgiou Ricardo S Ehlers Elena A Erosheva Stephen E Fienberg Jonathan J Forster Roger C Gill Nial Friel Peter Green David Hastie R King Hans R Künsch N. A. Lazar C Osinski 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(1):39-55
42.
Cathy W. S. Chen F. C. Liu Mike K. P. So 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2008,50(1):29-51
To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models. 相似文献
43.
Michael S. Rendall Ryan Admiraal Alessandra DeRose Paola DiGiulio Mark S. Handcock Filomena Racioppi 《Statistical Methods and Applications》2008,17(4):519-539
In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument.
For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations
on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum
use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic
regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in
the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors
about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller
survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total
survey sample size. 相似文献
44.
45.
Jerald F. Lawless 《Revue canadienne de statistique》2004,32(3):327-331
Oiler, Gomez & Calle (2004) give a constant sum condition for processes that generate interval‐censored lifetime data. They show that in models satisfying this condition, it is possible to estimate non‐parametrically the lifetime distribution based on a well‐known simplified likelihood. The author shows that this constant‐sum condition is equivalent to the existence of an observation process that is independent of lifetimes and which gives the same probability distribution for the observed data as the underlying true process. 相似文献
46.
47.
Banks winners in tournaments are difficult to recognize 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Gerhard J. Woeginger 《Social Choice and Welfare》2003,20(3):523-528
Given a tournament T, a Banks winner of T is the top vertex of any maximal (with respect to inclusion) transitive subtournament of T. In this technical note, we show that the problem of deciding whether some fixed vertex v is a Banks winner for T is NP-complete.
Received: 22 February 2002/Accepted: 20 June 2002
Supported by the START program Y43-MAT of the Austrian Ministry of Science.
I would like to thank two thank the referees for a careful reading of the paper, for helpful remarks, and for many suggestions
how to improve the presentation. 相似文献
48.
Gayane Novikova 《Transition Studies Review》2004,11(3):213-223
The collapse of the USSR was accompanied by transformation of the South Caucasian latent ethnopolitical conflicts into local wars. Today the situation in the area of the conflicts is “neither war, nor peace”. Three unresolved conflicts of the South Caucasus can be considered as one of the most serious obstacles for establishing a regional security system.The article gives the general characteristics of these conflicts, the trends of their development, taking into account the time factor, and analyzes the behavioral models of the main players – de jure recognized and unrecognized de facto states of the South Caucasus. The basic objective of the main players should be to keep the situation on a level preventing the resumption of the armed conflicts. The attempts of forced resolution of the conflicts are fraught with destabilization of the situation not only in the area of any of these conflicts but in the whole region. 相似文献
49.
Mohammad Salehi M. George A.F. Seber 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2004,46(3):483-494
Not having a variance estimator is a seriously weak point of a sampling design from a practical perspective. This paper provides unbiased variance estimators for several sampling designs based on inverse sampling, both with and without an adaptive component. It proposes a new design, which is called the general inverse sampling design, that avoids sampling an infeasibly large number of units. The paper provide estimators for this design as well as its adaptive modification. A simple artificial example is used to demonstrate the computations. The adaptive and non‐adaptive designs are compared using simulations based on real data sets. The results indicate that, for appropriate populations, the adaptive version can have a substantial variance reduction compared with the non‐adaptive version. Also, adaptive general inverse sampling with a limitation on the initial sample size has a greater variance reduction than without the limitation. 相似文献
50.
Lu Lin 《Statistical Papers》2004,45(4):529-544
The quasi-score function, as defined by Wedderburn (1974) and McCullagh (1983) and so on, is a linear function of observations.
The generalized quasi-score function introduced in this paper is a linear function of some unbiased basis functions, where
the unbiased basis functions may be some linear functions of the observations or not, and can be easily constructed by the
meaning of the parameters such as mean and median and so on. The generalized quasi-likelihood estimate obtained by such a
generalized quasi-score function is consistent and has an asymptotically normal distribution. As a result, the optimum generalized
quasi-score is obtained and a method to construct the optimum unbiased basis function is introduced. In order to construct
the potential function, a conservative generalized estimating function is defined. By conservative, a potential function for
the projected score has many properties of a log-likelihood function. Finally, some examples are given to illustrate the theoretical
results.
This paper is supported by NNSF project (10371059) of China and Youth Teacher Foundation of Nankai University. 相似文献