An Effective Statistical Approach for Comparative Risk Assessment1

Comparative risk assessment is an evaluation process designed to rank environmental problems based on the severity of potential hazards. The purpose of this paper is to provide an effective statistical approach to analyze perceived environmental risks. Environmental problems, evaluative criteria, and other potential moderator variables need to be determined first, and then the risk perception data collected. Repeated measures analysis is used to first test for interactions between environmental problems and potential moderator variables. If there are no significant interactions, then the risk difference among environmental problems is tested unconditionally; otherwise the risk difference is tested conditionally. Cluster analysis for environmental problems is performed only when the risk difference is significant. The clustering results can be objectively determined by using the simultaneous T² confidence intervals. Risk-based priority setting is made according to the clusters obtained. To illustrate this approach, an empirical study of comparative socioeconomic risks in Taiwan was conducted. Socioeconomic impacts areas including social security, quality of life, production cost, investment willingness, and economic resources are used as evaluative criteria. Results indicate that selected impact areas do affect relative risk differences among 24 environmental problems, and the difference is significant for each area. Therefore, cluster analysis is conducted separately for each impact area. Risk-based priority settings for clusters of environmental problems are reported.     

声乐艺术学科发展的前瞻性构想--也论建立当代声乐艺术科学理论体系

徐行效先生提出建立当代声乐艺术科学理论体系,从声乐艺术发展的过程和前景来看,是完全必要的.提出这一新观点、新概念、新理论是富有时代特色的科学构想,它的构建具有重要的现实意义和深远的影响.本文拟就这个论题从几个方面论述声乐艺术学科发展的一些前瞻性构想.     

A cohort analysis of the fertility of the July 1 People's Commune in Shanghai, County]

The survey was conducted in February-March 1981. The population of this commune at the end of 1980 was 18,608. The cultural and educational levels, economic condition, and work in family planning of this commune form a typical example among numerous similar communes in Shanghai County. The birthrate, natural growth rate, and average fertility rate began to decline in the later half of 1950s and reached the lowest level in 1974. The survey shows a delay in the marriage age. The fertility rate also dropped by 21.31% from 1963 to 1980. The average fertility rate dropped by 162.73% from 1963 to 1980. Among the women of childbearing age, 99% of them have a knowledge of birth control measures, 95% of them have used them before, and 78% are currently using them. All these figures show that the work in family planning in the commune has reached a high level by world standards. 3 factors which have a strong impact on fertility are: the economic and educational level, formation of population elements, and family planning work. A rise in the standard of living and improvement in education normally leads to late marriage and a decline in fertility. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age causes a rise in fertility. The population growth after 1974 is a reflection of this situation. The survey shows that the decline in fertility before 1973 was caused mainly by family planning work.     

微波辐射对油脂稳定性影响的研究

以大豆油、菜籽油和猪油为原料 ,研究微波辐射场中油脂的抗氧化稳定性。结果发现在微波作用下油脂的抗氧化稳定性与场的强度、作用时间、油脂的不饱和程度有关     

Public Policy and Diffusion of Innovation

Marketers have traditionally studied diffusionof innovation with a primary focus on theindividual consumer as a unit of analysis, themajor types of findings being characteristicsof adopter categories and opinion leadership. We propose that this perspective is notadequate from a macromarketing perspective, inwhich the goals are to set public policy forsocietal good or to create an environment whichenables the diffusion of an innovation in a waythat no single marketer could do alone. Insetting public policy which can enable (orinhibit) diffusion of innovation for societalgood, a system composed of a mass socialinfrastructure, a competitive infrastructure,and a technical infrastructure should beconsidered.     

儒学的人文关怀与现代制度文明

西方现代制度的不足在于重程序而轻实质、重形式而轻内容、重科学而轻人文,故其要朝着理性与价值相统一的方向发展,就必须善于汲取包括儒学在内的人类一切优秀精神文化成果。儒学的人文关怀对现代制度有补给意义,其人本观与人权、民本观与民主、义利观与市场经济体制,皆有某种程度的相容性。东亚现代工业化的实践证明,作为后发的国家不能简单地移植西方现代制度,只有将其与自己的文化传统相结合,才能够享用现代制度所带来的福音。     

京派乡土小说的浪漫寻梦与田园诗抒写

乌托邦式的审美理想决定了京派作家的文化价值立场,从反现代文明和反现代文化的角度出发,最终又部分复归于现代文化批判的视角.所以,京派乡土小说在其创作的理论和实践中呈现出的是"半叙景物,半涉人世"的书写状态,而风景画、风俗画与风情画的描写则成为他们田园诗的乡土抒情体式和小说修辞.     

城市人口增长对主导产业变化的影响分析——广州与武汉的比较

城市主导产业的变迁发展受到多种因素制约,其中人口因素的作用不容忽视。人口数量的增减、人口结构的合理与否以及人口质量的优劣都将作用于区域产业结构调整,进而影响城市主导产业的兴衰更迭。本文选取广州市和武汉市进行实证分析,发现广州市商贸等服务业的持续发展离不开人口结构的优化,武汉市光电子信息技术产业的异军突起是人口质量提升的结果;并针对两地人口增长现状,分别提出了如何进一步引导产业结构优化的政策建议,以利于在新型城市化进程中有效协调城市人口增长与主导产业变化的关系。     

文化、性别与回族社会

社会性别是由文化建构的.回族文化是伊斯兰文化与中国传统文化结合的产物,其社会性别观念也深深打上了这两种文化影响的烙印.     

社会和谐是中国特色社会主义的基本要求

社会和谐,是科学社会主义的应有之意,是中国特色社会主义的本质属性.社会主义制度提供了实现社会和谐的基础和前提条件,但是,构建社会主义和谐社会是一个长期的历史任务和逐步实现的持续过程.我们要立足国情,根据已经具备的条件,积极主动地推进和谐社会建设.