Paternity Leave and the Motherhood Penalty: New Causal Evidence

Objective: The objective of this study was to test how a father's paternity leave affects the within‐household gender wage gap among heterosexual couples. Background: Previous studies focus on the actual number of days of leave the father takes, but if an important driver of the gender wage gap is the effect of parental leave on gender‐specific household specialization, absolute variations in the father's leave should not be the key interest. Instead, this article tests the effect of the extent of the father's leave relative to that of the mother's leave because it is this variation that plausibly affects the division of household labor and through this the within‐household gender wage gap. Method: Full sample, administrative data are from Statistics Denmark. Causal inference was facilitated by exploiting 5 Danish parental leave reforms on 5 separate samples of all households who become first‐time parents within the year before and after each reform (N₁ = 2,304; N₂ = 45,683; N₃ = 16,668; N₄ = 42,328; N₅ = 38,978). Results: Father's leave reduces the within‐household gender wage gap through increasing mother's wages. Father's leave furthermore causes an increase in total household wage incomes. Conclusion: Father's stronger involvement in the household may be one route to more gender equality, but more so to increased financial well‐being among families.     

Playful organisations: Undecidability as a scarce resource

This article explores how organisational play becomes a managerial tool to increase and benefit from undecidability. The article draws on Niklas Luhmann's concept of decision and on Gregory Bateson's theory of play to create a conceptual framework for analysing the relation between decision and undecidability. With an empirical point of departure in Danish public school policy and two concrete examples of games utilised in school development, the article analyses how play is a way for organisations to simultaneously decide and also avoid making a decision, thus keeping flexibility and possibilities intact. In its final sections, the article discusses what happens to conditions of decision-making when organisations do not just see undecidability as a given condition, but as a limited resource indispensable for change and renewal. The article advances discussions of organisational play by exploring the consequences play has for the very conditions of organising and for key concepts in organisation theory.     

Inferring beliefs as subjectively imprecise probabilities

We propose a method for estimating subjective beliefs, viewed as a subjective probability distribution. The key insight is to characterize beliefs as a parameter to be estimated from observed choices in a well-defined experimental task and to estimate that parameter as a random coefficient. The experimental task consists of a series of standard lottery choices in which the subject is assumed to use conventional risk attitudes to select one lottery or the other and then a series of betting choices in which the subject is presented with a range of bookies offering odds on the outcome of some event that the subject has a belief over. Knowledge of the risk attitudes of subjects conditions the inferences about subjective beliefs. Maximum simulated likelihood methods are used to estimate a structural model in which subjects employ subjective beliefs to make bets. We present evidence that some subjective probabilities are indeed best characterized as probability distributions with non-zero variance.     

Physical activity in the life of a woman with cerebral palsy: physiotherapy,social exclusion,competence, and intimacy

Although physical activity can have substantial mental and physical health benefits, people with cerebral palsy usually lead sedentary lives. To understand, at an individual level, this inactivity, we interviewed a 29-year-old minimally active woman with cerebral palsy (Alana) about the meanings and experiences of physical activity throughout her life. Using a case-study approach, we found that Alana had adverse childhood experiences with physical activity, including: having to perform difficult, and sometimes painful, physiotherapy; wearing callipers to assist her walking; demonstrating limited competence at physical activity; being excluded from physical education and other organised physical activity at school; and feeling socially isolated from her classmates. These experiences seemed to contribute to feelings of difference/inferiority and the subsequent avoidance of physical activity, which, in turn, might have contributed to premature functional decline. Physical activity levels in people with cerebral palsy might be increased through focusing on enhancing childhood experiences.     

Social Class,Economic Inequality,and the Convergence of Policy Preferences: Evidence from 24 Modern Democracies

Using data from the World Values Survey and national‐level indicators for 24 modern democracies, we assess the influence of social class and economic inequality on preferences for government responsibility. We improve on previous research by using multilevel models that account for differences in attitudes both within (i.e., over time) and across countries. Our findings are consistent with the economic self‐interest hypothesis. Specifically, working class individuals, who tend to gain the most from government intervention because of their low and often more precarious economic position, are more likely than others to support government intervention. We also find a positive relationship between national‐level income inequality and support for government intervention. As income inequality rises, its social ills tend to be more pervasive, resulting in public opinion becoming more supportive of governments taking responsibility for their citizens. We further demonstrate that inequality moderates the relationship between social class and attitudes. Although the effect of income inequality is positive for all social classes, attitudes across social classes become more similar as inequality rises. Utilisant les données de World Values Survey et indicateurs de niveau national, nous évaluons l'influence de la classe sociale et l'inégalité économique sur les préférences en matière de responsabilité du gouvernement dans 24 démocraties modernes. Notre analyse se améliore sur la recherche précédente en utilisant des modèles à plusieurs niveaux qui tiennent compte des différences dans les attitudes au sein (ce est à dire, au fil du temps) et entre les pays. Nos résultats sont cohérents avec l'hypothèse d'auto‐ intérêt économique. Par exemple, les travailleurs ‐ qui ont tendance à bénéficier plus quand le gouvernement intervient dans l’économie en raison de leurs faibles revenus et souvent position plus précaire ‐ sont plus susceptibles que d'autres à un soutien responsabilité du gouvernement. Nous constatons également une relation positive entre l'inégalité des revenus au niveau national et le soutien à l'intervention du gouvernement. Comme l'inégalité des revenus se élève—et ses maux sociaux ont tendance à être plus répandue—l'opinion publique devient plus favorable des gouvernements assument la responsabilité de citoyens. Tout aussi important, cependant, nous démontrons également que la relation entre la social classe et les préférences pour la responsabilisation du gouvernement diffèrent par la quantité de l'inégalité des revenus dans un pays. Bien que l'effet de l'inégalité des revenus est positif pour toutes les classes sociales, les différences dans les attitudes de la classes sociale convergent que l'inégalité augmente.     

Modeling marginal features in studies of recurrent events in the presence of a terminal event

We study models for recurrent events with special emphasis on the situation where a terminal event acts as a competing risk for the recurrent events process and where there may be gaps between periods during which subjects are at risk for the recurrent event. We focus on marginal analysis of the expected number of events and show that an Aalen–Johansen type estimator proposed by Cook and Lawless is applicable in this situation. A motivating example deals with psychiatric hospital admissions where we supplement with analyses of the marginal distribution of time to the competing event and the marginal distribution of the time spent in hospital. Pseudo-observations are used for the latter purpose.

     

How Terrorism Affects Attitudes toward Democracy: Tunisia in 2015

Tunisia is the only country that emerged from the Arab Spring as a democracy. However, Tunisian democracy is threatened by political divisions, economic problems, and the threat of terrorist attacks. We shed light on Tunisia's democratic prospects by examining (1) the degree to which major terrorist attacks in 2015 influenced Tunisian public opinion on democracy and (2) the extent to which preference for a democratic system affected opinions on the prospects for democracy in Tunisia. We use data from three waves of a nationwide survey conducted just before and just after Tunisia's first major terrorist attack, and just after the country's second major terrorist attack. We demonstrate that after the attacks the Tunisian public became less favourable toward democracy and less optimistic that Tunisia would soon be ready for it. Such scepticism was widespread, affecting people who preferred democracy as much as those who did not. We conclude that the prospects for Tunisian democracy are more precarious than is sometimes assumed.