Gender discrimination and self-employment dynamics in Europe

This paper examines the effect that gender-based earnings discrimination has on self-employment dynamics among females, with a focus on four countries in Western Europe. Using data from the European Community Household Panel in the 1999–2001 time period, we test the hypothesis that the probability of moving into self-employment is positively related to prior earnings discrimination, as measured by unexplained deviations from expected (male) earnings. Our findings suggest that women who have lower than expected wage sector earnings are more likely to leave wage employment in the following year. The results with respect to discrimination, per se, however, are mixed.     

Seeking consistency with paired comparisons: a systems approach

It is well known that decision methods based on pairwise rankings can suffer from a wide range of difficulties. These problems are addressed here by treating the methods as systems, where each pair is looked upon as a subsystem with an assigned task. In this manner, the source of several difficulties (including Arrow’s Theorem) is equated with the standard concern that the “whole need not be the sum of its parts.” These problems arise because the objectives assigned to subsystems need not be compatible with that of the system. Knowing what causes the difficulties leads to resolutions.

     

Fast searching games on graphs

Given a graph, suppose that intruders hide on vertices or along edges of the graph. The fast searching problem is to find the minimum number of searchers required to capture all the intruders satisfying the constraint that every edge is traversed exactly once and searchers are not allowed to jump. In this paper, we prove lower bounds on the fast search number. We present a linear time algorithm to compute the fast search number of Halin graphs and their extensions. We present a quadratic time algorithm to compute the fast search number of cubic graphs.     

Post-1969 Immigration and the Example of the Insolvency of the Social Security System

Advocates of immigration to save Social Security (S.S.) assume that a pay-as-you-go system will work over the long run. That assumption is not shared by the Social Security Board of Trustees. Reflection shows that it would entail ever-larger new cohorts of immigrants to support those who are retiring, in effect, a Ponzi scheme. In fact, the benefits structure of the S.S. system, which pays out proportionately more to low-wage earners than to high-wage earners relative to their contributions, taken together with the income profile of post-1969 immigrants, means that the more immigration which occurs, the deeper into insolvency the system falls.     

R2 Bounds for Predictive Models: What Univariate Properties Tell us About Multivariate Predictability

ABSTRACT

A long-standing puzzle in macroeconomic forecasting has been that a wide variety of multivariate models have struggled to out-predict univariate models consistently. We seek an explanation for this puzzle in terms of population properties. We derive bounds for the predictive R² of the true, but unknown, multivariate model from univariate ARMA parameters alone. These bounds can be quite tight, implying little forecasting gain even if we knew the true multivariate model. We illustrate using CPI inflation data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Influence functions applied to the estimation of mean rain rate

In this paper we illustrate the usefulness of influence functions for studying properties of various statistical estimators of mean rain rate using space-borne radar data. In Martin (1999), estimators using censoring, minimum chi-square, and least squares are compared in terms of asymptotic variance. Here, we use influence functions to consider robustness properties of the same estimators. We also obtain formulas for the asymptotic variance of the estimators using influence functions, and thus show that they may also be used for studying relative efficiency. The least squares estimator, although less efficient, is shown to be more robust in the sense that it has the smallest gross-error sensitivity. In some cases, influence functions associated with the estimators reveal counterintuitive behaviour. For example, observations that are less than the mean rain rate may increase the estimated mean. The additional information gleaned from influence functions may be used to understand better and improve the estimation procedures themselves.     

Perceptions of Sexual Consent: The Impact of Relationship History and Gender

Patterns of extradyadic involvement (EDI) were assessed for 3 samples: an undergraduate dating sample and a community marital sample reporting on an actual experience of EDI, and an undergraduate sample which denied recent EDI and was asked to imagine a hypothetical EDI experience. Good consistency of responses within and between measures was found for the hypothetical EDI sample. Persons reporting on a hypothetical EDI were generally less approving of EDI and imagined that they would experience higher levels of primary relationship satisfaction, overall remorse, and specific types of distress, particularly in comparison to the dating EDI group. Relative to the dating EDI group, the marital EDI group recalled greater dissonance with the EDI behavior, more concern about disapproval from others, and higher levels of intimacy, self‐esteem, and love reasons for the EDI. No differences were found among the groups on the level of emotional closeness with the extradyadic partner.     

Bayesian inferences related to shifting sequences and two-phase regression

The problem of estimating the switch point in a sequence of independent random variables is studied from a Bayesian viewpoint. Theoretical results and numerical examples are given for the normal sequence and two-phase regression.