Regional Variations in the Realignment of American Politics, 1944–2004*

Objective. Perennial questions in electoral studies are what constitutes realignment, and when and where do realignments occur? Using the concepts of critical and secular realignments as a framework, we model change in the end product of realignment, election outcomes. We test for secular and critical changes in partisan strength across six geographic regions of the United States, focusing on office‐holding data at both the federal and state legislative level. Methods. Using an interrupted time‐series model, we examine evidence for secular realignment and posit five critical interventions that have affected American politics since World War II. Results. Our findings suggest that there are elements of both critical and secular realignments at work with different patterns in each region, and that different regions have been affected by a variety of elections associated with critical events since 1944. Conclusions. The collapse of Republican hegemony in the Northeast and Pacific West has gone largely unnoticed, buried in the intense examination of the growth of the Republican Party in the American South. The 1994 election is the most prominent in terms of its impact on seat holding by the parties at both the state and national level, and constitutes a realigning election.     

The Effects of Gender on Charge Reduction

Studies of criminal justice processing of adults commonly report that females are accorded more lenient treatment than are males. These results have given rise to theories that chivalry and male paternalism cause gender discrimination. This study examines the relationship between gender and charge reduction in the criminal justice process. Analyses focus on (1) the extent to which gender affects charge reduction independent of other social and legal variables, and (2) whether gender operates indirectly through variables that are correlated with it. The data are drawn from one judicial district in Florida using information from presentence reports. Using a variety of measures, we find no evidence that there is differential treatment by gender in charge reduction considerations.     

Risk Factors for Adolescent Pregnancy Reports Among African American Males

This study examined childhood and adolescent risk factors for males' reports of getting someone pregnant during adolescence. These questions were examined in an urban sample of 335 African American males involved in a prospective, longitudinal study. Childhood aggression significantly predicted reported pregnancies during adolescence. Boys who were stably aggressive across 3rd through 5th grades were at particularly high risk for reporting getting a female pregnant. Adolescent substance use and deviant peer involvement incrementally added to the prediction of pregnancy reports over and above the effects of childhood aggression. Adolescent aggressive problems did not contribute to reports of pregnancy once childhood aggression was accounted for in the model. These results highlight that precursors for males' pregnancy reports can be identified by as early as age 8. Findings also emphasize the importance of an expanded developmental focus to understand risk factors for adolescent pregnancy. The implications of these results are discussed for preventive interventions to reduce adolescent pregnancy.     

Importance of Uncertainty and Variability to Predicted Risks from Trophic Transfer of PCBs in Dredged Sediments

Biomagnification of organochlorine and other persistent organic contaminants by higher trophic level organisms represents one of the most significant sources of uncertainty and variability in evaluating potential risks associated with disposal of dredged materials. While it is important to distinguish between population variability (e.g., true population heterogeneity in fish weight, and lipid content) and uncertainty (e.g., measurement error), they can be operationally difficult to define separately in probabilistic estimates of human health and ecological risk. We propose a disaggregation of uncertain and variable parameters based on: (1) availability of supporting data; (2) the specific management and regulatory context (in this case, of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency tiered approach to dredged material management); and (3) professional judgment and experience in conducting probabilistic risk assessments. We describe and quantitatively evaluate several sources of uncertainty and variability in estimating risk to human health from trophic transfer of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) using a case study of sediments obtained from the New York-New Jersey Harbor and being evaluated for disposal at an open water off-shore disposal site within the northeast region. The estimates of PCB concentrations in fish and dietary doses of PCBs to humans ingesting fish are expressed as distributions of values, of which the arithmetic mean or mode represents a particular fractile. The distribution of risk values is obtained using a food chain biomagnification model developed by Gobas by specifying distributions for input parameters disaggregated to represent either uncertainty or variability. Only those sources of uncertainty that could be quantified were included in the analysis. Results for several different two-dimensional Latin Hypercube analyses are provided to evaluate the influence of the uncertain versus variable disaggregation of model parameters. The analysis suggests that variability in human exposure parameters is greater than the uncertainty bounds on any particular fractile, given the described assumptions.     

Antecedents of Union Commitment: The Impact of Union Membership Differences in Vertical Dyads and Work Group Relationships

Relational demography has recently been employedto investigate the influence of workplace diversity onorganizational outcomes, such as organizationalcommitment, turnover, and performance (O Reilly,Caldwell, & Barnett, 1989; Tsui & O Reilly, 1989;Tsui, Egan, & O Reilly, 1992; Tsui, Egan, &Porter, 1994). In the present study, we utilize thetechniques and theoretical framework employed in the relational demography literature to examine theimpact of heterogeneous union membership status withinwork groups and vertical dyads, and the effect of thesedifferences on union commitment. A composite dataset was created from two Australianhospitals. Analyses of the data were confined to 460nursing staff who could be identified within 43 specificwork groups (hospital wards). The results indicate that while no relationship was found betweendifferences in membership status among co-workers inwork groups on commitment, differences between membersand their supervisors served to decrease union loyalty and belief in unionism (controlling for otherunion and organizational factors). Importantly, we foundsupport for an interaction effect between work groupsand vertical dyads. Differences in membership status among co-workers were observed to lowerunion loyalty and willingness to work for the union whensupervisors were nonunion members. The implications ofsuch findings for union policy are addressed.     

Housing as Health Capital: How Health Trajectories and Housing Paths Are Linked

This article explores the relationships between housing and health inequalities. It locates housing within a network of health resources that can either promote well-being or increase susceptibility to disease. Housing thereby contributes to the accumulation, or depletion, of the health capital of individuals and communities. Qualitative interviews in three British regions help specify the links between health capital, on the one hand, and the network of resources, environments, events, institutions, and social relations comprising the housing system, on the other. The findings show why, from a health capital/health-resources-network perspective, a segment of the housing system (owner-occupation) that generally appears therapeutic can have the opposite effect for people whose resilience is low or whose health is in decline .     

Chemical Health Effects Assessment Methodology for Airborne Contaminants

Chemical Health Effects Assessment Methodology (CHEM) is a new procedure for assessing hazardous properties of airborne toxic contaminants. CHEM evaluates substances for four major health effect categories: carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, reproductive/developmental toxicity, and toxic effects other than the first three. Three elements are considered in the assessment: weight of evidence, potency, and severity of effect. This approach produces a profile of toxic properties of chemicals which preserves their unique multidimensional character and highlights data gaps.     

The training process of the Maryland Guardianship Assistance Project: a collaborative model for kinship foster care

Understanding models of multidisciplinary collaborations in child welfare has become essential for policy development, program success, and improving outcomes for children in foster care. The authors present the state of Maryland's Guardianship Assistance Project (GAP) as a model of multidisciplinary collaboration in child welfare and describe the training process that supported the development of the model. Key components for effective collaborative practice, lessons learned, and recommendations from the GAP collaboration are presented.     

The Characteristics of Children with a Disability Looked After away from Home and their Future Service Needs

Correspondence to Professor Roy McConkey, School of Nursing, University of Ulster, Newtownabbey, N. Ireland BT37 0QB. E-mail: r.mcconkey{at}ulster.ac.uk Summary Little is known about the characteristics of children with disabilitieswho meet the British legal definition of ‘looked after’children. Data were obtained on 108 such children living withinone geographical area in Northern Ireland and who spent 90 daysor more in a 12-month period living away from the family home.However, this figure may under-estimate the numbers, given thedifficulties in tracking children aged over 14 years who wereadmitted to hospitals on a short- or long-term basis. The medianage of the children was 14 years; most had learning disabilitiesallied with challenging behaviours, communication difficulties,autism and some were technologically dependent. Many of theirfamilies experienced a range of problems. One-third of the childrenwere accommodated in various residential settings but half ofthese placements were in hospital or adult residential accommodation.However, there were marked differences in the services providedto this client group by the four provider agencies. Future serviceneeds included increased respite breaks for families and theprovision of both more residential placements and more appropriateaccommodation, especially for teenagers. The dilemmas in reconcilingthe need for local, but specialized, service provision are discussed.