Minimax estimation of a lower-bounded scale parameter of a gamma distribution for scale-invariant squared-error loss

Let X have a gamma distribution with known shape parameter θr;aL and unknown scale parameter θ. Suppose it is known that θ ≥ a for some known a > 0. An admissible minimax estimator for scale-invariant squared-error loss is presented. This estimator is the pointwise limit of a sequence of Bayes estimators. Further, the class of truncated linear estimators C = {θ_ρ|θ_ρ(x) = max(a, ρ), ρ > 0} is studied. It is shown that each θ_ρ is inadmissible and that exactly one of them is minimax. Finally, it is shown that Katz's [Ann. Math. Statist., 32, 136–142 (1961)] estimator of θ is not minimax for our loss function. Some further properties of and comparisons among these estimators are also presented.     

An empirical Bayes approach to outliers

A formulation of the problem of detecting outliers as an empirical Bayes problem is studied. In so doing we encounter a non-standard empirical Bayes problem for which the notion of average risk asymptotic optimality (a.r.a.o.) of procedures is defined. Some general theorems giving sufficient conditions for a.r.a.o. procedures are developed. These general results are then used in various formulations of the outlier problem for underlying normal distributions to give a.r.a.o. empirical Bayes procedures. Rates of convergence results are also given using the methods of Johns and Van Ryzin (1971, 1972).     

The Imaginary Audience and Personal Fable: Factor Analyses and Concurrent Validity of the “New Look” Measures

This study examined key components of the “New Look” at the imaginary audience and personal fable constructs. Toward this end, data from four samples of Belgian high school students (N= 1,458) were analyzed. Confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses failed to confirm that the measures associated with the New Look theory, the New Imaginary Audience Scale, and the New Personal Fable Scale (NPFS), tapped a common underlying construct. Only the invulnerability and omnipotence subscales of the NPFS proved to be highly related. In line with the New Look theory, boys were found to believe more strongly in their own uniqueness, invulnerability, and omnipotence than were girls. Higher scores on the invulnerability and omnipotence subscales were associated with lower levels of depression and loneliness. Finally, each aspect of the personal fable seemed to have its own specific role in the process of separation – individuation. Implications of these findings for the New Look theory of the imaginary audience and the personal fable are discussed. Suggestions for future research are put forth, with particular emphasis on the role of the invulnerability/omnipotence complex in adolescent development and behavior and on the family resemblances among the various aspects of the personal fable.     

The Formation of Group Affect and Team Effectiveness: The Moderating Role of Identification

In the current research we use the social identity perspective to enhance our understanding of group affect (i.e. a collectively shared pattern of affective states among group members). Because higher identification (i.e. the extent to which group members define themselves in terms of their group membership) is related to higher attentiveness to fellow group members, we expected that group identification would foster affective convergence, and that the effects of group affective tone on team effectiveness would be stronger for higher identifying groups. A survey of teams (n=71 teams) confirmed our expectations. A scenario experiment (n=121 participants) added to our findings by showing that identification does indeed lead group members to affectively converge to their fellow group members and that this affective convergence, in turn, explains subsequent team‐oriented attitudes. Our study testifies to the notion that team managers may want to take notice of and manage affect in work groups, because, especially in higher identifying teams, affect may spread among team members and influence the team's effectiveness.     

Organizational Cultures as Holding Environments: A Psychodynamic Look at Organizational Symbolism

The traditional formulation of symbols asbundles of meaning has supported manyfine-grained analyses of organizational culture.However, it tends to obscure deeper psychodynamicelements that are essential to shaping how culture forms,develops, and dies. This paper adapts the idea ofholding environment from Winnicott, Kegan,and others to sketch the potential contribution of such a psychodynamic perspective. An illustrativecase is presented to support the argument.     

Europe's second demographic transition

By 1985, fertility rates in Europe were below the replacement level of 2.1 births/woman in all but Albania, Ireland, Malta, Poland, and Turkey, following a steady decline from a 1965 postwar peak well above 2.5 in Northern, Western, and Southern Europe and an erratic trend from a lower level in Eastern Europe. Natural decrease (fewer births than deaths) had begun already in Austria, Denmark, Hungary, and the Federal Republic of Germany and can be expected shortly in many other countries. According to current UN medium projections, Europe's population (minus the USSR) will grow only 6% between 1985 and 2025, from 492 to 524 million and 18.4% of the population in 2025 will be 65 and over. The decline to low fertility in the 1930s during Europe's 1st demographic transition was propelled by a concern for family and offspring. Behind the 2nd transition is a dramatic shift in norms toward progressiveness and individualism, which is moving Europeans away from marriage and parenthood. Cohabitation and out-of-wedlock fertility are increasingly acceptable; having a child is more and more a deliberate choice made to achieve greater self-fulfillment. Many Europeans view population decline and aging as threats to national influence and the welfare state. However, governments outside Eastern Europe, except for France, have hesitated to try politically risky and costly economic pronatalist incentives. As used in Eastern Europe, coupled with some restrictions on legal abortion, such incentives have not managed to boost fertility back up to replacement level. Immigration as a solution is unfeasible. All countries of immigration have now imposed strict controls, tried to stimulate return migration of guestworkers recruited during labor shortages of the 1960s and early 1970s, and now aim at rapid integration of minorities. Only measures compatible with the shift to individualism might slow or reverse the fertility decline, but a rebound to replacement level seems unlikely and long-term population decline appears inevitable for most of Europe.     

Displacing Disney: Some notes on the flow of culture

This article presents a comparative reading of the theme parks Disneyland, DisneyWorld, Tokyo Disneyland, and (in brief) EuroDisney. The aim is to explore how an explicitly American product flows across distinct cultural boundaries. The park itself is treated as a source of cultural experience for those who pay to wander about its grounds and partake of its attractions. The meaning of this cultural experience depends however on the social context in which it occurs and — despite corporate claims to the contrary — is anything but universal.     

Planning for business with China

The purpose of this article is to suggest planning approaches to the business opportunities offered by the People's Republic of China (hereafter “China”). It is directed to the company trying to determine its position with respect to China rather than to the company which has a product with impending sales prospects.     

Estimators of location based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type statistics

Two classes of estimators of a location parameter ø₀ are proposed, based on a nonnegative functional H₁^* of the pair (D₁^ø_N, G^ø_N), where and where F_N is the sample distribution function. The estimators of the first class are defined as a value of ø minimizing H₁^*; the estimators of the second class are linearized versions of those of the first. The asymptotic distribution of the estimators is derived, and it is shown that the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, the signed linear rank statistics, and the Cramérvon Mises statistics are special cases of such functionals H₁^*;. These estimators are closely related to the estimators of a shift in the two-sample case, proposed and studied by Boulanger in B2 (pp. 271–284).