Individual differences in numerical representations of risk in health decision making: A fuzzy-trace theory approach

Fuzzy-trace theory predicts that decisionmakers process numerical information about risk at multiple levels in parallel: the simplest level, nominal (categorical some-none) gist, and at more fine-grained levels, involving relative comparison (ordinal less-more gist) and exact quantities (verbatim representations). However, little is known about how individual differences in these numerical representations relate to judgments and decisions, especially involving health tradeoffs and relative risks. To investigate these differences, we administered measures of categorical and ordinal gist representations of number, objective numeracy, and intelligence in two studies (Ns = 978 and 956). In both studies, categorical and ordinal gist representations of number predicted risk judgments and decisions beyond objective numeracy and intelligence. Participants with higher scores in categorical gist were more likely to choose options to avoid cancer recurrence risks; those who were higher in ordinal gist of numbers were more likely to discriminate relative risk of skin cancer; and those with higher scores in objective numeracy were more likely to choose options that were numerically superior overall in terms of relative risk of skin cancer and of genetic risks of breast cancer (e.g., lower numerical probability of cancer). Results support parallel-processing models that assume multiple representations of numerical information about risk, which vary in precision, and illustrate how individual differences in numerical representations are relevant to tradeoffs and risk comparisons in health decisions. These representations cannot be reduced to one another and explain psychological variations in risk processing that go beyond low versus high levels of objective numeracy.     

Getting your supervisors and managers on the right team

They do a great job. So we promote them. Now they supervise people who don't do the job as well as they did. We give them a big raise. But because they're exempt they make less than their leads. They have the toughest job in the company—managing people. So we grant them an entire day of training to prepare. We ask them to mentor, coach, and have close relationships with their direct reports—all 132 of them. Then when the stock dips, we blame “middle management” and lay a bunch of them off.     

Circular and Repeat Migration: Counts of Exits and Years Away from the Host Country

The importance of repeat and circular migration starts receiving rising recognition. The paper studies this behavior by analyzing the number of exits and the total number of years away from the host country using count data models and panel data from the German guestworker experience. Beyond the myth, more than 60% of migrants in the sample from the guestworker countries living in Germany are indeed repeat or circular migrants. Migrants from European Union member countries, those not owning a dwelling in Germany, the younger and the older (excluding the middle-aged), are significantly more likely to engage in repeat migration and to stay out for longer. Males and those migrants with German passports exit more frequently, while those with higher education exit less; there are no differences with time spent out. Migrants with family in the home country remain out longer, and those closely attached to the labor market remain less; they are not leaving the country more frequently.     

“刘易斯转折点”假象及其对“人口红利”释放的冲击

本文分析了当前普遍范围的用工荒是由于实际工资低于保留工资引起的农民工用脚投票结果。在此利用新家庭经济学单一模型理论分析这种经济行为是与简单单一个体预期效用最大化的经济行为相区别;农户以家庭为单位在金融资本及现代教育人力资本短缺的情况下通过家庭成员劳动力资本对外投资实施风险规避,在家庭内部实现收入分享,风险共担。这种经济行为带来的在工业制造和农业无法有效释放人口红利的结果,最终导致用工荒和环境负外部性以资本替代劳动的现代农业生产。     

Responsive Survey Design,Demographic Data Collection,and Models of Demographic Behavior

To address declining response rates and rising data-collection costs, survey methodologists have devised new techniques for using process data (“paradata”) to address nonresponse by altering the survey design dynamically during data collection. We investigate the substantive consequences of responsive survey design—tools that use paradata to improve the representative qualities of surveys and control costs. By improving representation of reluctant respondents, responsive design can change our understanding of the topic being studied. Using the National Survey of Family Growth Cycle 6, we illustrate how responsive survey design can shape both demographic estimates and models of demographic behaviors based on survey data. By juxtaposing measures from regular and responsive data collection phases, we document how special efforts to interview reluctant respondents may affect demographic estimates. Results demonstrate the potential of responsive survey design to change the quality of demographic research based on survey data.     

在应对“用工荒”中推动企业转型升级

总结用工荒的基本特征,分析其产生的原因,并提出企业和政府联手应对用工荒的对策。认为企业要通过机械化和自动化降低用工依赖、提高效率和向低成本地区转移来化解用工高成本,变革企业管理减少员工流失。政府要通过加快区域产业布局调整、加强农民工职业技能培训、加快农业现代化建设提高用工供给、推动农民工与市民在住房保障等方面平权、优化农民工就业服务和劳动力市场建设、构建少取多予的财税扶持等措施,帮助企业应对用工荒,实现转型升级。     

The joint paediatric–forensic examination in child abuse

The investigation of alleged child abuse should be multi-professional and coordinated to minimize distress to the child and family. Much attention has focused on the joint interview process, with less prominence being given to the medical component of the initial investigation. No standard practice exists in the United Kingdom regarding the conduct of the medical examination or in the training requirements of the doctors who perform the examination. We present a model of practice which has evolved in Edinburgh and the Lothians, drawing on the combined expertise and experience of paediatricians and police surgeons, which has operated for over 2 years; and propose a formal accreditation process for doctors who wish to specialize in the field of child abuse. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Replanning the Master Production Schedule for a Capacity-Constrained Job Shop

This research examines the use of both frozen and replanning intervals for planning the master production schedule (MPS) for a capacity-constrained job shop. The results show that forecast error, demand lumpiness, setup time, planned lead time, and order size have a greater impact on the mean total backlog, total inventory, and number of setups than the frozen and replanning intervals. The study also shows that a repetitive lot dispatching rule reduces the importance of lot sizing, and a combination of repetitive lot dispatching rule and single-period order size consistently produces the lowest mean total backlog and total inventory. The results also indicate that rescheduling the open orders every period produces a lower mean total backlog and total inventory when the forecast errors are large relative to the order sizes. This result suggests that the due date of an open order should be updated only when a significant portion of the order is actually needed on the new due date.     

Designing Lateral Organizations: An Analysis of the Benefits,Costs, and Enablers of Nonhierarchical Organizational Forms*

Twenty-first century organizations will require designs that enable them to cope with turbulent environments. Organizations have experimented with lateral organizational designs for this purpose, but research evidence concerning these forms is sparse. We analyzed data obtained from 512 employees within eight diverse organizations implementing flexible lateral organizations. Using a sequence comparison methodology, we were able to identify and categorize the major costs, benefits, and enablers associated with implementing these forms of complex organizations. Propositions for effectively managing lateral relations were tested and managerial implications were explored.