SELECTING PARAMETERS FOR SHORT-TERM FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

The objective of this paper is to discover which of three forecasting modes used to select parameters for four short-term forecasting techniques minimizes errors. The study also examines whether the amount of historical data used to find parameters contributes to forecasting success. The results show the traditional one-ahead search routine works well in some, but not all, forecasting situations. Also, forecasting errors appear to decline when more historical data are included in the parameter search.     

A Bayesian approach to non-parametric monotone function estimation

Summary.  The paper proposes two Bayesian approaches to non-parametric monotone function estimation. The first approach uses a hierarchical Bayes framework and a characterization of smooth monotone functions given by Ramsay that allows unconstrained estimation. The second approach uses a Bayesian regression spline model of Smith and Kohn with a mixture distribution of constrained normal distributions as the prior for the regression coefficients to ensure the monotonicity of the resulting function estimate. The small sample properties of the two function estimators across a range of functions are provided via simulation and compared with existing methods. Asymptotic results are also given that show that Bayesian methods provide consistent function estimators for a large class of smooth functions. An example is provided involving economic demand functions that illustrates the application of the constrained regression spline estimator in the context of a multiple-regression model where two functions are constrained to be monotone.     

High school graduation rates among children of same-sex households

Almost all studies of same-sex parenting have concluded there is “no difference” in a range of outcome measures for children who live in a household with same-sex parents compared to children living with married opposite-sex parents. Recently, some work based on the US census has suggested otherwise, but those studies have considerable drawbacks. Here, a 20 % sample of the 2006 Canada census is used to identify self-reported children living with same-sex parents, and to examine the association of household type with children’s high school graduation rates. This large random sample allows for control of parental marital status, distinguishes between gay and lesbian families, and is large enough to evaluate differences in gender between parents and children. Children living with gay and lesbian families in 2006 were about 65 % as likely to graduate compared to children living in opposite sex marriage families. Daughters of same-sex parents do considerably worse than sons.     

The tournament careers of top-ranked men and women tennis professionals: Are the gentlemen more committed than the ladies?

We ask whether top-ranked male tennis professionals are more dedicated or commit-ted to their careers than the top-ranked female professionals. We find no evidence that this is the case in the 1979–1994 period. Despite substantially lower real earnings, the women pros competed for as many years as did the men and just as intensely in terms of annual number of tournaments played.     

The Speed of Adjustment of Warrant Prices to Changes in Stock Prices

This article reports on work designed to measure the time required for a change in a stock's price to be fully reflected in the price of a warrant on that stock. The method employed to measure the adjustment speed is the bivariate transfer function technique of Box and Jenkins. An interesting aspect of the study is the use of trade-by-trade data for measuring stock and warrant returns. The evidence presented here suggests that warrant prices adjust quickly to changes in stock prices. In addition, evidence concerning the ability of the estimated models to forecast warrant prices is presented.     

An Improved Boxplot for Univariate Data

The boxplot is an effective data-visualization tool useful in diverse applications and disciplines. Although more sophisticated graphical methods exist, the boxplot remains relevant due to its simplicity, interpretability, and usefulness, even in the age of big data. This article highlights the origins and developments of the boxplot that is now widely viewed as an industry standard as well as its inherent limitations when dealing with data from skewed distributions, particularly when detecting outliers. The proposed Ratio-Skewed boxplot is shown to be practical and suitable for outlier labeling across several parametric distributions.     

The Resistible Rise of Sarah Palin: Continuity and Paradox in the American Right Wing1

Sarah Palin clearly holds a powerful appeal for a right‐wing constituency although even her most fervent followers may doubt that she is electable. This article examines the basis of her appeal. We argue that it can be summed up as an appeal to American authenticity, which consists of several elements: the valorization of small town ordinary life takes second place to faith and religious commitment; an equal faith in American exceptionality implies that Americans should never be apologetic about their country and never waver in their belief in its special greatness; the final elements are a foundational libertarian creed and a peculiar brand of right‐wing populism. However, for all her affinities with classical right‐wing sentiment, Sarah Palin, we argue, brings something new to the mix: a genuinely maverick right‐wing feminism. That is why in the end, we call the Palin phenomenon a paradoxical one.