Collective preferences as predictors of interstate migration

The comparison of objective and subjective social indicators can be illuminated by comparing their relations to individual choice, of which migration is an important instance. We have replicated for U.S. states Lowry's (1966) regression model of migration among SMSA's, and added an indirect subjective measure of quality of life in each state. This measure is based on a Gallup survey asking respondents about their preferences among states of the United States as places to live. A measure of collective preference for each state, as viewed by outsiders, is constructed from these responses. This new variable increases R ² from 0.798 to 0.828, and is itself predicted with an R ² of only 0.355 by objective variables. Objective indicators of well-being had increased R ² only from 0.762 to 0.798. We conclude that collective preferences — the subjective measure we have used — play an independent part in predicting migration.     

What are the economic consequences of divorce?

Our analysis suggests that Weitzman's finding concerning the precipitous decline in the economic status of women following divorce is likely to be incorrect. Her findings not only imply improbably large changes in income but are also inconsistent with the information she reports on changes in income and in income per capita. Corrected estimates suggest a decline in economic status of about one-third, rather than the widely cited 73 percent figure. It remains the case that the economic status of men and women diverge substantially in the years after divorce. That difference, however, is not nearly as dramatic as suggested by Weitzman's findings.     

Some models of response uncertainty for panel analysis

Data of L. M. Wiggins from three-wave panels, each with a single dichotomous response, illustrate the use of models with response probabilities that vary over occasions or over individuals, or neither, or both, with a “no interaction” combination of the two being specified for the last case, which can also be derived from the Rasch measurement model. Models more complicated than these, allowing for changes in individual parameters (interaction of occasions and persons) or serial dependence of responses are considered when the Rasch-type model does not adequately describe the data.     

Simultaneous estimation of the hardy-weinberg proportions

We consider the problem of simultaneously estimating k + 1 related proportions, with a special emphasis on the estimation of Hardy-Weinberg (HW) proportions. We prove that the uniformly minimum-variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) of two proportions which are individually admissible under squared-error loss are inadmissible in estimating the proportions jointly. Furthermore, rules that dominate the UMVUE are given. A Bayesian analysis is then presented to provide insight into this inadmissibility issue: The UMVUE is undesirable because the two estimators are Bayes rules corresponding to different priors. It is also shown that there does not exist a prior which yields the maximum-likelihood estimators simultaneously. When the risks of several estimators for the HW proportions are compared, it is seen that some Bayesian estimates yield significantly smaller risks over a large portion of the parameter space for small samples. However, the differences in risks become less significant as the sample size gets larger.     

THE TIME LINE AND THE “WHY NOW?” QUESTION: A TECHNIQUE AND RATIONALE FOR THERAPY,TRAINING, ORGANIZATION CONSULTATIONS AND RESEARCH

A method is presented for quickly and graphically clarfying the relationships between life cyle evnts and the onset of probles Its basic from involves laterally organizing events in terms of the points in time at which they ocurred. A structural version-expressed in two formate-elucidates the interaction between nodal events and changes in family/organization structure. The device can both tease out hypotheses and identify directoins for treatment. It addreses the “Why now?” question for therapists and trainees and can provide a normalizing, edifying, and encouraging experience for families. It is also adaptable for research and for use in organizational development and consultation with agencies and businesses.     

Remarriage patterns among recent widows and widowers

Remarriage is one of the most important determinants of physical and economic well-being among the widowed. The goal of this study is to estimate how hazard rates for remarriage vary among widows and widowers on the basis of both observable and unobservable characteristics. The remarriage estimates rely on nationally representative samples of widows and widowers from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Continuous-time hazard rate regressions indicate strong age and duration dependence effects for middle-aged widows and widowers and for older widowers. Among middle-aged widows, blacks and those with dependent children in the home have lower rates of remarriage. For middle-aged widowers, living in urbanized areas limits the prospects of remarriage. For older widowers, education and, to some extent, economic status appear to have positive effects on the remarriage rates. Overall, age and time since widowhood have the strongest and most consistent effects on remarriage rates for different widowed groups.     

A new look at child abuse tragedies

Thirty-five child abuse inquiry reports, published in Britain between 1973 and 1989, were reviewed and the cases reanalysed using a systemic framework. Problematic interactions were identified within the families, among members of the professional networks and between the families and professionals. These relational aspects of each case interacted and progressively skewed the course of events. The findings have important implications for the practice of child protection, including the assessment of risk and decisions by statutory professionals to employ controlling interventions such as Emergency Protection Orders.     

Understanding Leaders of Repressive Social Movements

Researchers studying right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) have discussed the need to distinguish authoritarian followers from leaders. Altemeyer's (2003) studies raise several issues about political leadership in the real world. First, are most leaders of authoritarian social movements high on both RWA and social dominance (SDO)? Second, is it possible to be an authoritarian leader of a repressive social movement without being high on SDO? Third, it would be useful to develop techniques to assess SDO at a distance. Fourth, what roles do the psychological motives of need for power, need for affiliation and intimacy, and need for responsibility play in motivating leadership behavior in high SDO leaders? Finally, does social dominance exist in countries with non–Western value systems? Understanding the psychology of leaders of repressive social movements may help us develop ways to limit access to the power they crave and to mitigate the damage that they do.