Forecasting intraday time series with multiple seasonal cycles using parsimonious seasonal exponential smoothing

This paper concerns the forecasting of seasonal intraday time series that exhibit repeating intraweek and intraday cycles. A recently proposed exponential smoothing method involves smoothing a different intraday cycle for each distinct type of day of the week. Similar days are allocated identical intraday cycles. A limitation is that the method allows only whole days to be treated as identical. We introduce a new exponential smoothing formulation that allows parts of different days of the week to be treated as identical. The result is a method that involves the smoothing and initialisation of fewer terms. We evaluate forecasting up to a day ahead using two empirical studies. For electricity load data, the new method compares well with a range of alternatives. The second study involves a series of arrivals at a call centre that is open for a shorter duration at the weekends than on weekdays. Among the variety of methods considered, the new method is the only one that can model in a satisfactory way in this situation, where the number of periods on each day of the week is not the same.     

Sensitivity to Confidence Cues Increases during the Second Year of Life

We investigated the emergence in infancy of a preference to imitate individuals who display confidence over lack of confidence. Eighteen‐ and 24‐month‐olds (N = 70) were presented with an experimenter who demonstrated the use of several objects accompanied by either nonverbal expressions of confidence or lack of confidence. At 24 months, infants were more likely to imitate the actions when demonstrated by a confident experimenter than by an unconfident experimenter; 18‐month‐olds showed no such preference. The experimenter then presented an additional imitation trial and a word‐learning trial while displaying a neutral expression. Twenty‐four‐month‐olds persisted in preferentially imitating a previously confident experimenter, but prior confidence had no effect on their word learning. These findings demonstrate a developmental increase in infants’ use of confidence cues toward the end of the second year of life.     

The Longitudinal Relationships Between Basic Psychological Needs Satisfaction at School and School-Related Subjective Well-Being in Adolescents

Situated within a positive psychology perspective, this study aimed at examining the nature and directionality of longitudinal relationships between basic psychological needs satisfaction at school and adolescents’ school-related subjective well-being. A total of 576 students (40.5 male and 36.8 % students in junior high school) completed measures of adolescent students’ basic psychological needs at school and school-related subjective well-being at two time points, 6 weeks apart. Cross-lagged structural equation modeling showed significant bidirectional longitudinal relationships between autonomy, relatedness, and competence needs satisfaction and school satisfaction. Furthermore, significant bidirectional relationships were observed between competence need satisfaction and positive affect in school. The findings provided important evidence of the roles of adolescents’ different types of needs satisfaction, experienced specifically during school, in adolescents’ school-related subjective well-being. The findings also helped extend the positive psychology perspective to the relatively neglected context of education.     

Beyond the urban stream syndrome: organic matter budget for diagnostics and restoration of an impaired urban river

In response to water quality standard violations linked to excessive organic matter (OM) and a lack of sampling data informing the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), an organic matter budget was created to quantify and identify sources of OM in the lower Jordan River (Salt Lake City, UT). By sampling dissolved, fine and coarse particulate OM, as well as measuring ecosystem metabolism at seven different sites, the researchers aimed to identify the origin of excess OM, and understand pathways by which different size classes of the OM pool are generated. The dissolved fraction (DOM; 94 %) was found to be the dominant form of OM transported within the river with fine particulate organic matter (FPOM; 6 %) the second most abundant, and coarse particulate organic matter (CPOM; 1 %) transport relatively insignificant in the overall OM budget. Primary production exceeded respiratory losses in the upper river, and this, along with OM inputs from two tributaries (where water reclamation facilities discharge into the river) delivered excess OM to the impaired lower reaches. Increasing stream metabolism index (SMI) with distance downstream (>1 in the lower river) further demonstrated that transport of excessive organic matter into the lower river was from upstream sources and not due to lateral inputs. This simple approach to characterizing the organic matter budget as it relates to water quality in the Jordan River was effective and could serve as a model for future studies attempting to quantify and identify sources of OM in urban ecosystems.     

Into the IRIS: a model for analyzing identity dynamics in conflict

I propose a lens model for understanding how core identities (ethnic, sectarian, racial or national) are affected by past interactions and narratives increasing the chances of the outbreak of violent conflict. The model can be used to show how core identities are polarized during conflict escalation and how they might de-polarize during periods of de-escalation and conflict resolution, leading to potential transformation of core identities in post-conflict situations. Northern Ireland will be used to illustrate the Integrated Relational Identity Structure model, showing how conflicting identities have changed, or not, as a result of history, the conflict and the peace process.     

Zen and the art of aut-ethnography: a tribute to Robert M. Pirsig

With the passing of Robert M. Pirsig, I felt that it was an appropriate time to write a tribute to his work and the influence it has had on my own theorising in regard to autistic ways of being. This reflection utilises the concept of an ‘aut-ethnography’ to examine passages that I had highlighted word by word when I first read Pirsig’s book: Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. These fragments contain links to a number of theoretical ‘lines of flight’ within my own work and that of others, from his concepts of dynamic ‘quality’ to his discussion on the tension between scientific method and lived experience.     

‘There is always this feeling of otherness’: exploring the lived experiences of visually impaired immigrant women in Canada

This paper explores the experiences of immigrant women with visual impairment in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) of Canada. Conceptually, the paper draws from feminist disability theory and critical scholarship on blindness to consider the discursive and material processes shaping women’s experiences across different socio-cultural contexts. Empirically, the paper draws from in-depth interviews with seven women. The analysis is organized around three themes. The first explores women’s understandings of visual impairment. The second examines the ways in which women’s experiences of visual impairment are shaped by meanings and attitudes that circulate within their cultural communities, and the extent to which immigration might challenge or reinforce these meanings. The third examines the shifting barriers and opportunities women face with respect to social and economic participation. We close by identifying the conceptual implications of our research.     

Student and faculty perceptions about mandatory influenza vaccinations on a health sciences campus

Objective: To examine the perceptions among faculty and health professional students regarding mandatory vaccination policies on a health sciences campus. Participants: A total of 296 faculty and 244 students completed surveys during Fall 2015. Methods: The online survey administered to individuals who received the influenza vaccine during the fall 2015 influenza vaccination clinic season included five items evaluating perceptions of employer mandatory vaccination requirements. Results: Chi-square analysis indicated that although faculty and students agree mandatory vaccinations in a health care environment are appropriate, faculty are more likely than students to get vaccinated in the absence of a mandate. Additionally, a small fraction of faculty would consider employment elsewhere when facing this mandate. Conclusions: Overall, faculty and students had favorable perceptions about mandatory influenza vaccine policies. Since students were less likely to be vaccinated in the absence of a mandate, education of students should be improved to support the importance of vaccinations in a health care environment.     

Differential customer racial attitudes toward scandal and patriotism: The Mitchell Report,the Olympics,race, and baseball memorabilia

This paper investigates differential customer racial reaction to negative and positive publicity related to professional athletes. In terms of negative publicity, it analyzes the effect of mention in the Mitchell Report on the price of baseball cards. In regards to positive publicity, it considers the impact of having been identified as a member of the United States Olympic or national team. After controlling for player productivity with performance statistics, the effects of being mentioned in the Mitchell Report are isolated within regression analysis to draw conclusions concerning customer racial attitudes toward the steroids scandal. Similar analysis is conducted to see the impact of being seen as a baseball representative of the United States. Regression results are consistent with the conclusion that negative publicity devalues the cards of nonWhite players but not of White players. Positive publicity, however, increases the value of a player's card regardless of ethnicity.