Spatial variation in risk of disease: a nonparametric binary regression approach

A common problem in environmental epidemiology is the estimation and mapping of spatial variation in disease risk. In this paper we analyse data from the Walsall District Health Authority, UK, concerning the spatial distributions of cancer cases compared with controls sampled from the population register. We formulate the risk estimation problem as a nonparametric binary regression problem and consider two different methods of estimation. The first uses a standard kernel method with a cross-validation criterion for choosing the associated bandwidth parameter. The second uses the framework of the generalized additive model (GAM) which has the advantage that it can allow for additional explanatory variables, but is computationally more demanding. For the Walsall data, we obtain similar results using either the kernel method with controls stratified by age and sex to match the age–sex distribution of the cases or the GAM method with random controls but incorporating age and sex as additional explanatory variables. For cancers of the lung or stomach, the analysis shows highly statistically significant spatial variation in risk. For the less common cancers of the pancreas, the spatial variation in risk is not statistically significant.     

Application of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to modelling birth prevalence of Down syndrome

Data collected before the routine application of prenatal screening are of unique value in estimating the natural live-birth prevalence of Down syndrome. However, much of these data are from births from over 20 years ago and they are of uncertain quality. In particular, they are subject to varying degrees of underascertainment. Published approaches have used ad hoc corrections to deal with this problem or have been restricted to data sets in which ascertainment is assumed to be complete. In this paper we adopt a Bayesian approach to modelling ascertainment and live-birth prevalence. We consider three prior specifications concerning ascertainment and compare predicted maternal-age-specific prevalence under these three different prior specifications. The computations are carried out by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in which model parameters and missing data are sampled.     

Fit and Skill in Employee Selection: Insights from a Study of Headhunters

We draw upon evidence from a qualitative study of headhunters to provide insights into the character and importance of candidate fit and skill for the selection of a broad range of white-collar employees. Headhunters suggest that the fit of a job candidate is assessed at two levels, one corresponding with a general compatibility with organization-level norms, culture, and strategy, the other corresponding more closely with traits and characteristics of the person or persons with whom the job candidate actually interviews. Skill—a factor which is largely neglected by those who tout the importance of fit—also plays an important and independent role in employee selection. Stalls that influence the selection of employees from a pool of candidates tend to be highly specific if not idiosyncratic, and take the form of what headhunters call hot buttons. We conclude by discussing the conceptualization, causes, and implications of fit; we also consider how the importance of fit and hot buttons challenges the explanatory logic of standard accounts of labor-market success.     

Will you be ready when the pink slip arrives?

Are you prepared to ride the waves of change? Will you be ready when the pink slip arrives? Health care executives who can jump a little higher and run a little faster will go further in the draft. Those of you who are prepared for change will always be appealing to recruiters and prospective employers. How can you ride these turbulent waves and not capsize? This article explores some suggestions for positioning yourself: Proper positioning with the inevitable changes in mind will help you move your career in a forward direction.     

The medical practice as business organization

Medical practices historically have not been examined in terms of their organizational structures and of the appropriateness of their structures for survival as business entities. In this paper, we propose a model for the typical medical practice and discuss its fit with current organizational theory. It is apparent that the medical practice organization does not fit with the demands of a rapidly changing and complex environment. To survive and grow, the medical practice organization must align itself with others that have an interest and stake in the health care system, develop teamwork among physicians, bridge the gap between physicians and others in the organization, and recognize that the work done in the organization depends on other components of the organization.     

The computerized patient record and confidentiality. The nabobs of negativism are wrong

The handwritten medical record has been the method of choice for documenting health care data since the last millennium. Given this successful tenure, it would be natural to greet any new information system that purports to be an advancement with skepticism. Moreover, physicians as a group are hardly progressive. Yet health care is taking a giant leap and is finally accepting computerization. The advantages and drawbacks of computerized information systems have long been thoroughly tested in such diverse industries as the military, banking, and the airlines. It is difficult to imagine any of these industries in their modern form without an advanced information system.     

Next-generation informatics. A new picture of quality medicine

It's up to the physician executive to make an informed choice when selecting a "next-generation" information system. Look for systems that truly integrate (not merely interface) managed care components, clinical capabilities, and other features in a model that mimics the workflow of an actual practice. Take the time to learn about the technology. Consider how a vendor's product will work at every point within your organization. Seven critical features that physician executives should consider in their decision-making are described.     

The changing academic health center. The death of the traditional academic physician

Organizational change is required if academic health centers (AHCs) are to survive the decreased societal commitment to them. The changes will generate significant emotional responses in the physicians employed by such institutions. This article presents an analogy between the reactions of academic physicians to the changes they are experiencing, and the stages of grief that Dr. Kübler Ross described in terminally ill patients. By placing physician responses in this context, emotional responses to organizational changes can be more easily understood and managed, allowing academic physicians to devote more energy to facing the threats to AHCs in an innovative and constructive manner.     

Lessons from the trenches in physician integration

Beyond the theoretical basis for integration, three core considerations stand out as the primary reasons for pursuing integration from a physician's perspective. In the authors' experience, the ability to make a case for physician integration stands or falls based on the ability of the integrated delivery system to address these considerations: Gain greater access to capital; develop human resources with talents in managed care and the full spectrum of care services; and sustain an information infrastructure. This article explores the lessons learned in pursuing physician integration.     

Refugees of Turkish origin: "coerced immigrants" to Turkey since 1945

"While several studies (in both Turkish and English) have been made on migration to the Ottoman Empire from the Caucasus and the Balkans during the nineteenth century...very little systematic and comprehensive research on migration has been undertaken on the period since the establishment of the Turkish Republic. This article, which aims to partially fill the gap, is divided into three parts: the issue of national refugees (refugees of Turkish origin) in relation to Turkey's overall refugee policy; Turkey's policy towards national refugees; and the volume and causes of refugee migration to Turkey since 1945." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)