Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number in the General Epidemic Model with an Unknown Initial Number of Susceptible Individuals

Abstract. In any epidemic, there may exist an unidentified subpopulation which might be naturally immune or isolated and who will not be involved in the transmission of the disease. Estimation of key parameters, for example, the basic reproductive number, without accounting for this possibility would underestimate the severity of the epidemics. Here, we propose a procedure to estimate the basic reproductive number ( R ₀ ) in an epidemic model with an unknown initial number of susceptibles. The infection process is usually not completely observed, but is reconstructed by a kernel‐smoothing method under a counting process framework. Simulation is used to evaluate the performance of the estimators for major epidemics. We illustrate the procedure using the Abakaliki smallpox data.     

Mobile phones,communities and social networks among foreign workers in Singapore

Transnational mobility affects both high‐status and low‐income workers, disrupting traditional assumptions of the boundedness of communities. There is a need to reconfigure our most basic theoretical and analytical constructs. In this article I engage in this task by illustrating a complex set of distinctions (as well as connections) between ‘communities’ as ideationally constituted through cultural practices and ‘social networks’ constituted through interaction and exchange. I have grounded the analysis ethnographically in the experiences of foreign workers in Singapore, focusing on domestic and construction workers from the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Bangladesh. I examine the cultural, social and communicative role that mobile phones play in the lives of workers who are otherwise constrained in terms of mobility, living patterns and activities. Mobile phones are constituted as symbol status markers in relationship to foreign workers. Local representations construct foreign workers as users and consumers of mobile telephony, reinscribing ideas of transnational identities as well as foreignness within the context of Singapore. Migrant workers demonstrate a detailed knowledge of the various telephony options available, but the desire to use phones to communicate can overwhelm their self‐control and lead to very high expenditures. The research highlights the constraints – as well as possibilities – individuals experience as subjects and agents within both social and cultural systems, and the ways in which those constraints and possibilities are mediated by a particular technology – in this case, mobile phones.     

The Social Work Role in Assisted Conception

¹ Eric Blyth, The University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield HD1 3DH, UK. Summary The provision of assisted conception has become a major industryin most industrialized countries, buttressed by powerful professionaland commercial interests. Assisted conception has significantimplications not only for those directly involved or affected,but also for wider society. The paper summarizes the contributionsocial work has made to the debate and to service development,especially in the UK. The author argues that the ethical valuesunderpinning social work, and the Knowledge and skills possessedby social workers, provide both an opportunity and a mandatefor social workers to influence the development of assistedconception services, in particular to ensure that the humanimplications of providing children for people who are involuntarilychildless are not subordinated to the pursuit of technical efficacy.     

An Australian map of British and Irish literacy in 1841

This contribution to the study of the literacy transition in Britain, Ireland, and Australia also touches on the relationship between literacy and international migration. Some 20,000 emigrants arrived in Australia in 1841 and their literacy is here established at the individual level, and then related to regional origins, occupations, religion, sex, and family status in the British Isles. The new Australian data offer unusual evidence to juxtapose with the prevailing account of British and Irish literacy. The paper makes systematic comparisons of the immigrant evidence with existing literacy findings for the populations of England and Wales, of Ireland, and the colonial population of Australia in the year 1841. The results also show extraordinary similarity of rank orderings between the Australian data and the conventional sources. The results show that the immigrants were consistently more literate than the home and the receiving populations and indicate a substantial link between migration and literacy.     

From Values of Rights in Social Work: Some Issues in Practice Development and Research

Prof. E. Sainsbury. Dept. of Sociological Studies. University of Sheffield. Sheffield S10 2TN. Summary The following is a discussion paper prepared for a researchteam engaged in a project funded by the Joseph Rowntree MemorialTrust. The problems it sought to address concerned how the teamcould derive a clear statement of clients rights from broadformulations of professional values, and the extent to whichresearch can measure the realization of these rights in socialwork practice. It was found in the research that the practical wisdom (commonsense) of social workers is frequently assumed to be based onprofessionally agreed values, and that—in the pressuresof daily work —values are seldom articulated in ways whichchallenge the procedures and solutions dictated by common sense.Thus, an initial purpose in preparing the paper was to commenton ways in which matters concerned with values become obscuredin practice, and to find ways of linking together values. rightsand practice more strongly. In offering this paper for widerpublication. the research team hopes that it will stimulatecomments which will assist their thinking.     

POWER IN A RURAL COUNTY

To more fully understand power structures in rural settings, this article investigates the power structure of an economically depressed rural county in southwestern Pennsylvania. The power structure must be viewed in the context of the economic hard times that the county has confronted. In this regard, there has been a decline in the number of local economic notables over the years making the formation of growth machines unlikely. The most powerful individual in the county, a wealthy philanthropist, has enhanced his stature and influence in the community by forming an economic development organization in an attempt to improve the economic situation in the county. The other powerful individuals in the county are political or state actors, who have benefited from the increases in government funding for various social programs.     

Mobilization of Personal Social Networks and Institutional Resources of Private Entrepreneurs in China*

Les auteurs examinent les liens micro et macroscopiques dans l'étude de l'économie en transition, en analysant la façon dont les entrepreneurs mobilisent leurs réseaux sociaux personnels intégrés à diverses institutions, afin de protéger leurs ressources d'affaires. Les résultats démontrent que les membres du réseau travaillant dans les organismes du gouvernement ou du parti jouent, en gros, un rôle essentiel dans l'obtention des ressources importantes comme les contacts gouvernementaux et l'information sur le marché et le financement. Ils démontrent aussi que les entrepreneurs utilisent différents membres de leurs réseaux pour différents types de ressources. Les auteurs discutent les différentes conséquences que cela entraine pour l'étude des réseaux et de l'économie en transition. This paper addresses the micro and macro link in studying transitional economy by examining how entrepreneurs mobilize their personal social networks embedded in various institutions to secure business resources. The results show that, by and large, network members working in government/party agencies play an essential role in obtaining important resources, such as those for government contact and market information/funding. The results also show that entrepreneurs utilize different members of their networks for different types of resources. Implications to the study of networks and transitional economy are discussed.     

MULTIPLE-MEASURE ASSESSMENT OF PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Recent research has focused attention on the importance of accountingfor measurement error in party identification when modelingthe stability of partisanship and the determinants of the vote.Measurement error estimates have in the past been based on asingle measure of partisanship observed at multiple points intime, a test-retest methodology that requires fairly strongassumptions about the character of change over time. This articleassesses the reliability of the Michigan party identificationscale using multiple measures of partisanship at a single pointin time. Our data not only corroborate previous test-retestresults but also suggest that the accuracy with which partisanshippredicts candidate preferences can be enhanced using multiplemeasures. One measure in particular, a labeled 7-point self-placementcontinuum, is found to hold significant potential to supplementand illuminate the Michigan scale.