An optimal k of kth MA-ARIMA models under a class of ARIMA model

In this article, we discuss finding the optimal k of (i) kth simple moving average, (ii) kth weighted moving average, and (iii) kth exponential weighted moving average based on simulated ARIMA(p, d, q) model. We run a simulation using the three above examining methods under specific conditions. The main finding is that 5th exponential weighted moving average (5th EWMA) ARIMA model is the best forecasting model among others, which means the optimal k = 5. For Turkish Telecommunications (TTKOM) stock market, real data reveal the similar results of simulation study.     

Gender differences in gambling preferences and problem gambling: a network-level analysis

Most gambling studies have a gender-blind research approach, although a large body of scientific evidence suggests that gambling in females is on the rise and that males and females have different gambling behaviours and experience specific gambling-related harm. This study addressed these gender differences using a network analysis, an innovative approach considering disorders/concepts as dynamic systems of interacting symptoms/items. Data on gambling activities, problem gambling, substance use and mental health were collected in a representative sample of French adult gamblers (n = 8805). The study capitalized on the network analysis directly to compare associations of specific gambling activities with gambling disorder symptoms separately for both genders. The network analysis revealed that problem gambling was strongly associated with gambling machines among females, whereas it was related to sports betting, poker and casino games among males. The networks that included substance use and mental health showed that substance use was related to specific gambling activities. These findings confirm the links between various gender-specific gambling patterns and problem gambling and suggest a need to consider these gender differences to improve prevention efforts. More broadly, the present study further supports the importance of gender differences for gambling research and policy.     

How leader humility helps teams to be humbler,psychologically stronger,and more effective: A moderated mediation model

We hypothesize that (a) the level of humility expressed by leaders predicts team performance through, serially, team humility and team PsyCap, and (b) the strength (i.e., consensus within the team) of the leader humility, team humility and team PsyCap moderates the paths of that hypothesized model. A sample comprising 82 teams (82 leaders; 332 team members) was collected. Team members reported leader humility, team humility and team PsyCap. Leaders reported team performance. To handle the risks of common method bias, each mediating path of the hypothesized model is based on data from two different subsamples within each team. Our model's most novel theoretical contribution is the (moderated mediated) connection between leader humility, collective humility, and team PsyCap, and this was consistently supported in our data. Our inconsistent findings dealing with the relationship between team PsyCap and performance is well established in the literature and our results in both sub-samples were in the theorized direction. The study contributes to understand why, how and when humble leaders are more effective.     

Les effets pervers du partage de la sécurité. Polices publiques et privées dans une gare et un centre commercial

This article focuses on controlling delinquency in a train station and a shopping center in a big French city. The increasing implication of private organizations in implementing security policies in public areas has spawned a literature about the “dangers of privatization”. As this fieldwork shows, private security officers and NGOs assume duties (related, for example to public relations or social policy) left vacant by police officers. Owing to this sharing of security, the police concentrate on its purely bureaucratic assignments and this has a negative impact on its legitimacy. A historical approach helps us understand how relations between the police and other parties have soured.     

Passion and gambling: on the validation of the Gambling Passion Scale (GPS)

Vallerand and his colleagues (Vallerand & Blanchard, 1999; Vallerand, Blanchard, Koestner, & Gagné, 2001) have recently proposed a new concept of passion. According to these authors, passion refers to a strong inclination toward an activity that we like, find important, and in which we invest time. Vallerand et al. have identified two types of passion: obsessive and harmonious. Obsessive passion refers to an internal pressure that forces an individual to engage in the activity. Harmonious passion, on the other hand, refers to an internal force that leads an individual to choose freely to engage in an activity. While obsessive passion has been shown in some circumstances to lead to negative psychological and physical consequences, harmonious passion generally leads to positive psychological and physical consequences. The purpose of the present research was to validate a measure of passion toward gambling: the Gambling Passion Scale (GPS). The GPS consists of two subscales (obsessive passion and harmonious passion) comprising five items each. Results from two studies involving a total of 340 participants revealed satisfactory internal consistency and temporal stability indices, as well as a two-factor structure supported by exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Finally, a series of partial correlational analyses between the two subscales and scales assessing behavioral measures related to gambling supported the construct validity of the GPS. The present results suggest that the GPS is a useful scale for research on gambling.     

Challenges in Development and Implementation of Health‐Risk‐Based Soil Quality Guidelines: Turkey's Experience

Management of contaminated sites is a critical environmental issue around the world due to the human health risk involved for many sites and scarcity of funding. Moreover, clean‐up costs of all contaminated sites to their background levels with existing engineering technologies may be financially infeasible and demand extended periods of operation time. Given these constraints, to achieve optimal utilization of available funds and prioritization of contaminated sites that need immediate attention, health‐risk‐based soil quality guidelines should be preferred over the traditional soil quality standards. For these reasons, traditional soil quality standards are being replaced by health‐risk‐based ones in many countries and in Turkey as well. The need for health‐risk‐based guidelines is clear, but developing these guidelines and implementation of them in contaminated site management is not a straightforward process. The goal of this study is to highlight the problems that are encountered at various stages of the development process of risk‐based soil quality guidelines for Turkey and how they are dealt with. Utilization of different definitions and methodologies at different countries, existence of inconsistent risk assessment tools, difficulties in accessing relevant documents and reports, and lack of specific data required for Turkey are among these problems. We believe that Turkey's experience may help other countries that are planning to develop health‐risk‐based guidelines achieve their goals in a more efficient manner.     

Social capital in the field of power: the case of Norway

This paper analyses social capital structures in the field of power, based on data from the Norwegian Power and Democracy Survey on elites. Separating between objectified, institutionalised, embodied, and inherited social capital, and inspired by Bourdieu's approach, we analyse the relations between social capital and the other forms of capital by way of specific multiple correspondence analysis and ascending hierarchical cluster analysis. First, we find that the level of institutionalised social capital varies from one fraction of the Norwegian elite to another. Secondly, the range of networks established through previous work experiences is related to field seniority. Thirdly, the positions of highest endogamy are situated in the religious field, and to a lesser extent, in the scientific field, and in the juridical field. Finally, the ‘core of the core’ is defined by actors who are strongly interconnected inside what is called ‘the tripartite system’, with a high level of multipositionality and intersectorial connections.     

Heterogeneous risk and time preferences

Assessing individuals’ time and risk preferences is crucial in domains such as health-related decisions (e.g., dieting, addictions), environmentally-friendly practices, and saving opportunities. We propose a new method to jointly elicit and estimate risk attitudes and intertemporal choices. We use a novel individual level estimation procedure based on a hierarchical Bayes methodology, which can integrate different functional forms for discounting and risk attitudes. This method provides individual level estimates, and allows us to explore the heterogeneity in the data. In addition, we report a negative correlation between risk and time preferences, implying that risk-seeking individuals are less patient and less willing to defer consumption.     

The Inquisitorial Trial of a Cross-Dressing Lesbian: Reactions and Responses to Female Homosexuality in 18th-Century Portugal

This article analyzes the inquisitorial trial of Maria Duran, a Catalan novice in the Dominican convent of Nossa Senhora do Paraíso in Portugal. Maria Duran was arrested by the Inquisition in 1741 and, after a lengthy trial, condemned in 1744 to a public lashing and exile. She was suspected of having made a pact with the Devil and was accused by many female witnesses of possessing a “secret penis” that she had allegedly used in her amorous relations with fellow nuns and novices. Her voluminous trial dossier offers a rare and fascinating documentary insight into the often extreme reactions that female homosexuality provoked from both men and women in early modern Portugal. Using the evidence offered by the 18th-century trial of Maria Duran, this article highlights female bewilderment when faced with female-on-female sexual violence and the difficulty that men (in this case, churchmen) had coming to terms with the existence of female homosexuality. It also discusses the case in light of the acts/identity debate among historians of the history of sexuality.