Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections: An Update and Extension

The popularity of the president as ascertained months priorto a presidential election permits an accurate prediction ofthe election outcome, even when the incumbent president is notrunning for reelection.     

The romantic heresy

L'apparition de l'amour romantique en chrétienté du douzième siècle et sa légitimation éventuelle comme base pour la sélection du conjoint sont expliquées en terme du contraste idéologique entre l'amour romantique (mania), l'amour chretien (agape-caritas), et le mariage féodal de convenance (amour pragmatique). Les institutions sociales supportant chaque légitimation sont analysées. L'amour romantique était particulièrement approprié aux aspirations de mobilité des chevaliers sans terre, vu qu'il mettait en question l'emphase sur le devoir dans l'amour chretien et le mariage féodal, sans proposer un renversement marcusien complet du Principe de réalité pour le Principe du plaisir.
The emergence of romantic love in twelfth-century Christendom and its eventual legitimation as a basis of mate selection are explained in terms of the ideological contrast of romantic love (mania) with Christian love (agape-caritas) and feudal arranged marriage (pragmatic love). The social institutions supporting each legitimation are analysed. Romantic love is found particularly suited to the status striving of the landless knights, as it challenged the emphasis on duty in Christian love and feudal marriage, without proposing a complete Marcusian overthrow of the reality principle in favour of the pleasure principle.     

Health effects of child work: Evidence from rural Vietnam

We test whether work in childhood impacts on health. We focus on agricultural work, the dominant form of child work worldwide. Data are from the Vietnam Living Standards Survey, 1992–93 and 1997–98. We correct for both unobservable heterogeneity and simultaneity biases. Instruments are land holdings and commune labour market and school quality indicators. We examine three indicators of health: weight-for-age Z-score; reported illness; and, height growth. There is clear evidence of a healthy worker selection effect. We find little evidence of a contemporaneous negative impact of child work on health but, particularly for females, work undertaken during childhood raises the risk of illness up to five years later. For boys, the risk is increasing with the period of time in work. There is no evidence that work impedes the growth of the child. This work was undertaken as part of the Understanding Children's Work project, an inter-agency program between the International Labour Organisation, UNICEF and the World Bank. The views expressed are those of the authors alone and do not reflect positions of the sponsoring organisations. We are grateful to the Government of Vietnam for permission to use the data. We thank two referees for very helpful comments. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

Parental Participation in Child Protection Work: Rethinking the Rhetoric

Correspondence to Brian Corby, University of Liverpool, Department of Sociology, Social Policy and Social Work Studies, Eleanor Rathbone Building, Myrtle Street, PO Box 147, Liverpool L69 3BX Summary Parental participation and, to a lesser extent, that of childrenat child protection conferences is seen as an important elementin resolving some of the conflicts that beset child protectionwork. Using data from a study of participation in one metropolitanborough, those outcomes that are generally regarded as positivein this respect are critically examined. Our findings suggestthat the optimism of advocates of participation is not whollyjustified. While at a basic level, parents are better informedthan before, their involvement in all aspects of the decision-makingprocess remains very limited. We conclude by arguing that thereis a need for more realism about the extent to which all parentscan be actively involved in making decisions about the futureprotection of their children. We point to the need for greaterrecognition of conflicts of interests between parents, professionalsand children and to the need for changes in the child protectionconference system in order to ensure more ethical and effectiveparticipation.     

Measuring the Business Impacts of Community Involvement: The Case of Employee Volunteering at UL

The study presents findings from piloting a new framework for measuring the business impacts of corporate community involvement at UL. It focuses on evaluating the human resource (HR) outcomes of employee volunteering in three signature programs. Five business impacts were measured—job satisfaction, morale, organizational pride, belief in UL mission, and engagement. Using an employee survey, the research team compared signature program volunteers with others and found a positive correlation between volunteering and impacts on morale, organizational pride, belief in UL mission, and engagement. Employee awareness (without participation) of UL signature programs was also associated with increased morale and organizational pride. While the study did not prove causation, it confirmed previous research on the link between employee volunteering and positive HR outcomes. The authors provide recommendations for further research and how companies can use the impact measurement framework to evaluate the bottom‐line benefits of their community involvement programs.     

Enterprise risk management for automation in correctional facilities with pandemic and other stressors

Real-time tracking of tool and equipment inventories is a critical function of many organizations and sectors. For prisons and correctional facilities, tracking and monitoring of assets such as cookware, hardware, keys, janitorial equipment, vocational/technical specialty tools, etc., is essential for safety, security, trust, efficiency, education, etc. The performance of automated systems for this purpose can be diminished by a variety of emergent and future sociotechnical factors alone and in combination. This article introduces a methodology for contractor evaluation and selection in acquisition of innovative asset management systems, with an emphasis on evolving system requirements under uncertainty. The methodology features a scenario-based preferences analysis of emergent and future conditions that are disruptive to the performance of the asset-control system. The conditions are across technologies, operating environments, regulations, workforce behaviors, offender behaviors, prices and markets, organizations, cyber threats, etc. The methodology addresses the influence and interaction of the conditions to disrupt system priorities. Examples include: (i) infectious disease disrupting priorities among requirements and (ii)  radio-frequency identification (RFID) and wireless-technology innovations disrupting priorities among stakeholders. The combinations of conditions that most and least matter for the system acquisition are characterized. The methodology constitutes a risk register for monitoring sources of risk to project performance, schedule, and cost throughout the system lifecycle. The results will be of interest to both practitioners and scholars engaged in systems acquisition as the pandemic interacts with other factors to affect risk, uncertainty, and resilience of organizational missions and operations.     

NEW PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENTS AND STOCK PRICES

The final test of any management decision is its effect on the value of the firm's securities. This paper examines the subsequent impact of the publication of new product announcements on stock returns. A distinguishing feature of this presentation is the integration of decision making in the marketing and finance functional areas.     

DECISION ANALYSIS THROUGH GOAL PROGRAMMING

In recent years, decision making based on systematic analysis has been greatly emphasized. Yet, decision analysis is often carried out without analyzing the limitations of certain quantitative techniques. This paper presents the concept, solution method, and application potential of goal programming which eliminates many limitations of conventional linear optimization models.