Bayes model averaging with selection of regressors

Summary. When a number of distinct models contend for use in prediction, the choice of a single model can offer rather unstable predictions. In regression, stochastic search variable selection with Bayesian model averaging offers a cure for this robustness issue but at the expense of requiring very many predictors. Here we look at Bayes model averaging incorporating variable selection for prediction. This offers similar mean-square errors of prediction but with a vastly reduced predictor space. This can greatly aid the interpretation of the model. It also reduces the cost if measured variables have costs. The development here uses decision theory in the context of the multivariate general linear model. In passing, this reduced predictor space Bayes model averaging is contrasted with single-model approximations. A fast algorithm for updating regressions in the Markov chain Monte Carlo searches for posterior inference is developed, allowing many more variables than observations to be contemplated. We discuss the merits of absolute rather than proportionate shrinkage in regression, especially when there are more variables than observations. The methodology is illustrated on a set of spectroscopic data used for measuring the amounts of different sugars in an aqueous solution.     

Patterns of labor mobility in a dual economy: The case of semiskilled and unskilled workers

The focus of recent stratification research demonstrates increasing recognition of the structured nature of social inequality. Among the forms these efforts have taken has been the development of a number of models drawing attention to the importance of various labor market decisions or cleavages. The crucial role which restricted labor mobility must play in maintaining these cleavages, while largely untested, has long been recognized. We argue that analysis of the patterns of job sequencing can be used to draw important inferences regarding the existence and character of labor market structures. From this premise, we use job transition data to test a number of propositions derived from dual economy theory, relating to the extent of intersectoral moves and the patterns of intersectoral and intrasectoral moves. Using log-linear methods, we find the hypothesized restricted evidence of intersectoral job shifts and also find patterns of intrasectoral moves indicative of the pervasiveness of rigidly structured internal labor markets in the core. While these results are consistent with a dualistic interpretation, they are equally as consistent with any model emphasizing the existence of strong intrafirm and intraindustry job structures.     

Manufacturing ghost fathers: the paradox of father presence and absence in child welfare

Fathers exist in the lives of women and children involved with child welfare authorities, and yet, they are rarely seen by child welfare. This invisibility exists whether or not fathers are deemed as risks or as assets to their families. Using an analysis of fundamental child welfare policies and practices and relevant literature, the paper examines how 'ghost' fathers are manufactured, and how this phenomenon affects families and professionals in child welfare. An analysis of gender, class, race and culture of child welfare discourses shows how these fathers are seen as deviant, dangerous, irresponsible and irrelevant, and even further, how absence in child welfare is inextricably linked to blaming mothers. In failing to work with fathers, child welfare ignores potential risks and assets for both mothers and children.     

如何理解新时代中国共产党的文化与中国故事——访伦敦国王学院中国研究中心主任凯瑞·布朗教授

凯瑞·布朗是享誉世界的中国问题研究专家。2019年1月,凯瑞·布朗在访谈中谈到了他对中国共产党的文化以及中国故事的理解。他主张以中国共产党的历史为基础,植根中国的传统文化来理解中国共产党的文化,理解中国故事,分析中国政治与全球秩序。中国共产党的力量植根于改革开放的伟大进程中;一部成功的中国故事,就是具有积极愿景的未来的故事,是一个信仰团体的故事,是道德正义的故事;只有植根中国历史与文化,才可以理解并解决中西方的“幻象冲突”问题。     

Biologically Motivated Cancer Risk Models

A two-stage dose response model is proposed for use in cancer risk assessment. The model assumes that transformation probabilities and cellular dynamics are exposure- and time-dependent.     

Research Notes on the Best British Companies: a Peer Evaluation of Britain's Leading Firms

The assessment of company performance is one of the major dilemmas facing the strategic researcher. This paper reviews the alternative methods available, then uses one approach, peer assessment, to produce a guide to British company performance. Britain's best companies are identified and their profiles are examined. Their declared financial strengths and relative weaknesses in marketing and innovation are identified.     

The Opinions of Minorities About Preparing for Work: Report of the Second NCDA National Survey

A report of the 1989 NCDA survey of the perceptions of American adults of their career planning, the nature of their workplaces, and the availability of and utility of occupational information is presented. The survey, which was administered by the Gallup Organization, included an oversampling of Hispanics, African Americans, and Asian-Pacific Islanders. Although the results for all groups including Whites are presented, the emphasis is upon the perceptions of minority groups.     

Dropouts and continuers in Gamblers Anonymous: Life-context and other factors

The design, aims and rationale are outlined of a follow-up study of dropouts from Gamblers Anonymous. A cohort of those attending for the first time and dropping out after more than one meeting was contacted and the cooperators given a structured interview examining factors which may have contributed to decisions to dropout. A comparison group of continuers from the same meeting who had been totally abstinent for at least a year were given the same structured interviews. This first of four parts examines life context factors making it more difficult to maintain attendance, commitment to the treatment program, perceived pre-meeting expectations and reasons for coming, impacts of the first meeting, effects of pressures to maintain attendance and the influence of spouses.