中国文明有历史吗--中国史研究在西方的缘起、变化及新潮

自18世纪后期以来,西方学者开始研究中国历史,但囿于西方中心论的影响,他们一般将中国文明与埃及、巴比伦和亚述等已经衰落的文明等量齐观,既否认中国人有历史观念,又否认中国传统史学的价值。他们的研究,突出“历史的西方”与“非历史的东方”的对立。这种状况,一直到二战之后才有所改变。美国哈佛大学东亚研究中心的“费正清学派”,便是这一改变的一个标志,突出表现为走出了传统的欧洲汉学,以研究近现代中国为特点。20世纪60年代后期以来,美国的新一代中国研究者,进一步努力清除西方中心论的影响,提倡“从中国发现历史”。这一努力在近年,又由于后现代主义和后殖民主义的影响,更有显著的表现。但对中国文明、历史的性质及其优劣的评价,最终还需要由中国人自己来做出。     

INTEGRATING EMPIRICAL RESEARCH INTO THE PUBLIC POLICY PROCESS: AN ILLUSTRATION

A number of critical questions have arisen surrounding the value of using empirical data and analytical procedures in the formulation of social and/or public policy. This exploratory study illustrates how multivariate analyses can contribute to an objective formulation of compromise positions on a complex public policy issue. Both multidimensional scaling and analysis of variance were used to study how the perceptions of three divergent key influential groups could be integrated into a final legislative package. This researchbased methodology provides a more logical approach to public policy formulation than that typically offered by political compromise.     

Analysis and Management of Periodic Review,Order‐Up‐To Level Inventory Systems with Order Crossover

In this article, we investigate the (R, S) periodic review, order‐up‐to level inventory control system with stochastic demand and variable leadtimes. Variable leadtimes can lead to order crossover, in which some orders arrive out of sequence. Most theoretical studies of order‐up‐to inventory systems under variable leadtimes assume that crossovers do not occur and, in so doing, overestimate the standard deviation of the realized leadtime distribution and prescribe policies that can inflate inventory costs. We develop a new analytic model of the expected costs associated with this system, making use of a novel approximation of the realized (reduced) leadtime standard deviation resulting from order crossovers. Extensive experimentation through simulation shows that our model closely approximates the true expected cost and can be used to find values of R and S that provide an expected cost close to the minimum cost. Taking account of, as opposed to ignoring, crossovers leads, on average, to substantial improvements in accuracy and significant cost reductions. Our results are particularly useful for managers seeking to reduce inventory costs in supply chains with variable leadtimes.     

Dynamic Group Scheduling Heuristics in a Flow-through Cell Environment*

The increased use of cellular manufacturing configurations designed to grapple with increasing competitive pressures is providing manufacturing managers and engineers with a broad variety of operational challenges. Many questions concerning the best procedures and policies for the day-to-day operation of manufacturing cells are still unanswered. The primary objective of this study is to compare the performance of traditional single-stage heuristics and the two-stage group scheduling heuristics that have exhibited superior performance in previous studies in a flow-through cell environment under a rigorous set of experimental conditions. Such a comparison is of great interest since each previous study has focused on proposing new heuristics and testing them against some particular baseline heuristic, often without comprehensive comparisons to the broad variety of previously proposed heuristics. Two single-stage heuristics and four two-stage heuristics are examined under sixteen experimental conditions (four experimental factors at two levels each). The experimental factors examined are shop load, due date tightness, setup to run-time ratio, and interarrival time distribution. Results vary by experimental condition and performance criteria, but in general, two-stage heuristics outperformed single-stage heuristics under all experimental conditions, as well as being relatively insensitive to changing experimental conditions. In addition, two of the two-stage heuristics displayed superior performance on all performance measures under most experimental conditions. Finally, the results indicated that interarrival time distribution does have a major impact on the performance of scheduling heuristics.     

A WORLD OF CITIES: THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF URBANIZATION IN POORER COUNTRIES

Historically, urban growth required enough development to grow and transport significant agricultural surpluses or a government effective enough to build an empire. But there has been an explosion of poor mega‐cities over the last 30 years. A simple urban model illustrates that in closed economies, agricultural prosperity leads to more urbanization, but that in an open economy, urbanization increases with agricultural desperation. The challenge of developing world mega‐cities is that poverty and weak governance reduce the ability to address the negative externalities that come with density. This paper models the connection between urban size and institutional failure, and shows that urban anonymity causes institutions to break down. For large cities with weak governments, draconian policies may be the only way to curb negative externalities, suggesting a painful trade‐off between dictatorship and disorder. A simple model suggests that private provision of infrastructure to reduce negative externalities is less costly when city populations are low or institutions are strong, but that public provision can cost less in bigger cities.     

A SIMULATION GAME FOR TEACHING SERVICE‐ORIENTED SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: DOES INFORMATION SHARING HELP MANAGERS WITH SERVICE CAPACITY DECISIONS?*

For decades, the Beer Game has taught complex principles of supply chain management in a finished good inventory supply chain. However, services typically cannot hold inventory and can only manage backlogs through capacity adjustments. We propose a simulation game designed to teach service‐oriented supply chain management principles and to test whether managers use them effectively. For example, using a sample of typical student results, we determine that student managers can effectively use end‐user demand information to reduce backlog and capacity adjustment costs. The game can also demonstrate the impact of demand variability and reduced capacity adjustment time and lead times.     

SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FOR THE DECISION MAKER

A procedure is presented for removing the influence of seasonal variation from an observed time series. The procedure leads to the development of moving average filters which optimally adjust the data based upon their unique characteristics. In this paper optimal adjustments are determined by the requirements of the decision maker.     

A MULTIATTRIBUTE DECISION-MAKING APPROACH TO THE SELECTION OF AN AUXILIARY DEVICE FOR ICEBREAKERS*

This paper describes the use of multiattribute decision making by the U.S. Coast Guard when choosing the most appropriate auxiliary device to use on an icebreaker. Five different missions of icebreakers are defined, and the objectives and attributes that describe the effectiveness of each auxiliary device in accomplishing these missions are established. For each geographical area of interest, the missions are weighted using the analytical hierarchy process. Also, group utilities are developed for attribute vectors in order to incorporate the judgments of different icebreaker operators.     

Sequencing Rules for Productivity Improvements in Underground Coal Mining*

In this paper, we report on a unique two-machine, dynamic sequencing problem that was involved in a project designed to improve the productivity of underground coal mining operations. It was discovered that mine output was dependent on the particular sequence of faces the continuous miner and bolter worked. The problem is characterized by two unique features. First, the problem is unique because of the geological and safety constraints that must be satisfied by the sequence. Second, the scheduling problem is dynamic because the available job sets change as work progresses, and the production times change as coal is mined. Three heuristic approaches were developed and tested using mine parameters. The best heuristic had a worst case scenario of being within 2.7 percent of the optimal sequence and only a 1.1 percent chance of determining a better sequence. This heuristic resulted in an 8.1 percent productivity improvement.     

Labour Legislation and Institutional Aspects of the Brazilian Labour Market

Abstract. This paper analyses the structure of the Brazilian Labour Code (CLT), the changes introduced since its approval in 1943, emphasizing the new Federal Constitution of 1988, the costs of labour and of dismissals for employers, the structure of union organizations, the regulation of collective bargaining and capital labour conflicts, and the process of wages determination. We also analyze the evolution of strike activity, and the evolution of wage differentials and functional distribution of income between profits and wages in industry in the last 15 years.