Bayesian Binomial Regression: Predicting Survival at a Trauma Center

Standard methods for analyzing binomial regression data rely on asymptotic inferences. Bayesian methods can be performed using simple computations, and they apply for any sample size. We provide a relatively complete discussion of Bayesian inferences for binomial regression with emphasis on inferences for the probability of “success.” Furthermore, we illustrate diagnostic tools, perform model selection among nonnested models, and examine the sensitivity of the Bayesian methods.     

Asymptotic equivalence of the harrell-davis median estimator and the sample median

This paper presents an asymptotic equivalence result with a sharp rate of convergence forthe sample median and the Harrell-Davis median estimator. The consequences of this result are discussed.     

Optimum spacings for the joint estimation and tests of hypothesis of location and scale parameters of the cauchy distribution

A simultaneous test for the location and scale parameters of the Cauchy distribution is considered based on selected order statistics.. It is shown that optimum spacings that maximise the Pitman ARE of the test coincide with that of the optimum spacings for the estimation problem.     

A multivariate solution of the multivariate ranking and selection problem

The problem of selection of the best multivariate population is given a new formulation which does not involve reducing the populations to univariate quantities. This formulation's solution is developed for known, and (using the Heteroscedastic Method) also for unknown, variance-covariance matrices. Preference reversals and arbitrary nonlinear preference functions are explicitly allowed in this new theory     

Now What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? Survey Studies of Educated Laypeople

In 1992, a mental‐models‐based survey in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, revealed that educated laypeople often conflated global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, and appeared relatively unaware of the role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in global warming. This study compares those survey results with 2009 data from a sample of similarly well‐educated laypeople responding to the same survey instrument. Not surprisingly, following a decade of explosive attention to climate change in politics and in the mainstream media, survey respondents in 2009 showed higher awareness and comprehension of some climate change causes. Most notably, unlike those in 1992, 2009 respondents rarely mentioned ozone depletion as a cause of global warming. They were also far more likely to correctly volunteer energy use as a major cause of climate change; many in 2009 also cited natural processes and historical climatic cycles as key causes. When asked how to address the problem of climate change, while respondents in 1992 were unable to differentiate between general “good environmental practices” and actions specific to addressing climate change, respondents in 2009 have begun to appreciate the differences. Despite this, many individuals in 2009 still had incorrect beliefs about climate change, and still did not appear to fully appreciate key facts such as that global warming is primarily due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the single most important source of this carbon dioxide is the combustion of fossil fuels.     

On a nonparametric test for the mixed-model

Nonparametric tests for the null hypothesis of no treatment effect in the mixed-model experiment which involves n randomly chosen subjects who respond once to each of ρ distinct treatments have been developed by Koch and Sen (1968), These tests were based on the assumption of compound symmetry of the error vectors and on the weaker assumption of diagonal symmetry of the error vectors. This paper considers an alternative (permutationally) distribution-free test under this latter assumption. The new test follows the same type of distribution theory as those in Koch and Sen, but utilizes the inherent invariance structure in a more visable and direct way.     

Employee attitudes to work-based counselling services

Work-based counselling services have increasingly been introduced in organizational settings in the 1980s and 1990s. In this paper, a study is reported of the attitudes of 213 employees of a UK Health Authority towards an existing counselling service. Questionnaires sought information about attitudes to counselling, confidentiality, attitudes to those seeking counselling and general health. The results suggested that attitudes to work-based counselling services are predicted by employees' perceptions of those seeking counselling as trustworthy and their beliefs about the confidentiality of the service. The practical implications of these results are examined.