国际上非基准年购买力平价推算方法评价

 全球国际比较项目大约每隔5年或6年调查一次,有关国际组织应用总量外推法、分类项目外推法、基期滚动法和简缩信息法等方法推算非基准年的PPP数据,以便取得完整的连续时间序列。本文对国际上常用的各种非基准年PPP推算方法和结果作详细分析、评价。     

An efficient sequential design of clinical trials

We propose an efficient group sequential monitoring rule for clinical trials. At each interim analysis both efficacy and futility are evaluated through a specified loss structure together with the predicted power. The proposed design is robust to a wide range of priors, and achieves the specified power with a saving of sample size compared to existing adaptive designs. A method is also proposed to obtain a reduced-bias estimator of treatment difference for the proposed design. The new approaches hold great potential for efficiently selecting a more effective treatment in comparative trials. Operating characteristics are evaluated and compared with other group sequential designs in empirical studies. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the method.     

Bayesian Binomial Regression: Predicting Survival at a Trauma Center

Standard methods for analyzing binomial regression data rely on asymptotic inferences. Bayesian methods can be performed using simple computations, and they apply for any sample size. We provide a relatively complete discussion of Bayesian inferences for binomial regression with emphasis on inferences for the probability of “success.” Furthermore, we illustrate diagnostic tools, perform model selection among nonnested models, and examine the sensitivity of the Bayesian methods.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of the bimodal failure rate for censored and tied observations

DIMITROV, RACHEV and YAKOVLEV ( 1985 ) have obtained the isotonic maximum likelihood estimator for the bimodal failure rate function. The authors considered only the complete failure time data. The generalization of this estimator for the case of censored and tied observations is now proposed.     

Book Reviews

The diagnostic tools examined in this article are applicable to regressions estimated with panel data or cross-sectional data drawn from a population with grouped structure. The diagnostic tools considered include (a) tests for the existence of group effects under both fixed and random effects models, (b) checks for outlying groups, and (c) specification tests for comparing the fixed and random effects models. A group-specific counterpart to the studentized residual is introduced. The methods are illustrated using a hedonic housing price regression.     

The Ranges of Limiting Values of Some Partial Correlations under Conditional Independence

Pearson's partial correlation, Kendall's partial tau, and a partial correlation based on Spearman's rho need not be consistent estimators of zero under conditional independence. The ranges of possible limiting values of these correlations are computed under multivariate normality and lognormality. Students should exercise caution when interpreting these partial correlations as a measure of conditional independence.     

An Extension of Economic Design of x-Bar Control Charts for Non Normally Distributed Data Under Weibull Shock Models

Three parameters—sample size, sampling intervals, and the control limits—must be determined when the x bar chart to monitor a manufacturing process. The constant sampling intervals were widely employed because of its administrative simplicity. However, the variable sampling interval (VSI) has recently been shown to give substantially faster detection of most process shifts than fixed-sampling-interval (FSI) for x-bar charts. In addition, these measurements in the subgroup are assumed to be normally distributed. That assumption may not be tenable. This investigation compares the economic design of x-bar control charts for non normal data under Weibull shock models with various sampling avenues.     

Modeling of covariance structures of random effects and random errors in linear mixed models

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss how to model the mean and covariancestructures in linear mixed models (LMMs) simultaneously. We propose a data-driven method to modelcovariance structures of the random effects and random errors in the LMMs. Parameter estimation in the mean and covariances is considered by using EM algorithm, and standard errors of the parameter estimates are calculated through Louis’ (1982 Louis, T.A. (1982). Finding observed information using the EM algorithm. J. Royal Stat. Soc. B 44:98–130. [Google Scholar]) information principle. Kenward’s (1987 Kenward, M.G. (1987). A method for comparing profiles of repeated measurements. Appl. Stat. 36:296–308.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) cattle data sets are analyzed for illustration,and comparison to the literature work is made through simulation studies. Our numerical analysis confirms the superiority of the proposed method to existing approaches in terms of Akaike information criterion.     

The MLE of Geometric Parameter for a Geometric Process

In this article, we provide the MLE of the ratio parameter of a geometric process and discuss its consistency and asymptotic normality.