Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in asymmetric vector autoregressive models

The estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) model is sensitive to model misspecifications, resulting to biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. This article extends the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates, a robustness procedure in cross-section data, to a vector time-series that is estimated using a large number of asymmetric VAR models. The proposed procedure was applied to simulated data from various forms of model misspecifications. The results of the simulation suggest that, under misspecification problems, particularly if an important variable and moving average (MA) terms were omitted, the proposed procedure gives robust results and better forecasts than the automatically selected equal lag-length VAR model.     

Predictors of Intrusive Sexual Behaviors in Preschool-Aged Children

Intrusive sexual behaviors (ISBs) are a specific type of problematic sexual behavior characterized by the invasive nature of the acts (e.g., touching others’ private parts, attempting intercourse; Friedrich, 1997). The limited amount of research on ISBs has focused on sexual abuse history as the primary predictor. However, Friedrich, Davies, Feher, and Wright (2003) found that ISBs in children up to age 12 were related to four broad conceptual factors: (a) exposure to sexual content, (b) exposure to violent behavior, (c) family adversity, and (d) child vulnerabilities. The current study sought to replicate Friedrich’s study using a clinical sample of 217 preschool-aged children (ages two to six). Results supported variables from within the child vulnerabilities construct (externalizing behaviors, β_EXT = 0.032, p = 0.001), post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) criteria met (β_PTSD = 0.177, p = 0.02), and an inverse relationship with age (β_AGE = ?0.206, p = 0.024). These results highlight the importance of considering childhood behavioral patterns and reactivity to traumatic events as correlates of ISBs in young children.     

Work-related drinking and processes of social integration and marginalization in two Norwegian workplaces

The aim of this study was to investigate the role of drinking in two Norwegian workplaces, focusing on how the drinking may contribute to both social integration and marginalization of employees. The two workplaces were a division of a multinational oil company and a public library both located in one of Norway's larger cities. Data were collected through ethnographic fieldwork, including using participant observation, qualitative interviews, and brief surveys. Work-related drinking was found to be common in both workplaces and played a significant role in a wide range of social situations in the twilight zone between normal working hours and leisure. Drinking was regulated by dominant workplace alcohol cultural ideals, but also involved opposition to these ideals. The results of this study have demonstrated that different forms of drinking (and non-drinking) may lead to both social integration and marginalization – or even exclusion of groups of employees or individual employees.     

On the mathematics of the Jeffreys–Lindley paradox

This paper is concerned with the well known Jeffreys–Lindley paradox. In a Bayesian set up, the so-called paradox arises when a point null hypothesis is tested and an objective prior is sought for the alternative hypothesis. In particular, the posterior for the null hypothesis tends to one when the uncertainty, i.e., the variance, for the parameter value goes to infinity. We argue that the appropriate way to deal with the paradox is to use simple mathematics, and that any philosophical argument is to be regarded as irrelevant.     

Tomorrow's Leaders and Today's Agents of Change? Children,Sustainability Education and Environmental Governance

Children are central to the rhetoric supporting global climate agreements, yet they are also envisaged to play a strategic role in materialising such agreements. Along with other household actors, children are implicated in localised efforts to manage global resource sustainability. As learners in educational systems that are being redesigned to encompass messages of sustainability, children are moreover positioned as ‘agents of change’ through sustainability education. Drawing on theoretical work on children's agency and interdependence, this review calls for greater attention to the structural and relational dimensions of environmental knowledge transmission to inform sustainability education. This is presented as one move towards constructing what Middlemiss (2014) terms a more ‘socially sensitive’ model of sustainable development.     

Maternal union instability and childhood mortality risk in the Global South, 2010–14

Efforts to improve child survival in lower-income countries typically focus on fundamental factors such as economic resources and infrastructure provision, even though research from post-industrial countries confirms that family instability has important health consequences. We tested the association between maternal union instability and children’s mortality risk in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia using children’s actual experience of mortality (discrete-time probit hazard models) as well as their experience of untreated morbidity (probit regression). Children of divorced/separated mothers experience compromised survival chances, but children of mothers who have never been in a union generally do not. Among children of partnered women, those whose mothers have experienced prior union transitions have a higher mortality risk. Targeting children of mothers who have experienced union instability—regardless of current union status—may augment ongoing efforts to reduce childhood mortality, especially in Africa and Latin America where union transitions are common.     

Some properties of Lin–Wong divergence on the past lifetime data

Measures of statistical divergence are used to assess mutual similarities between distributions of multiple variables through a variety of methodologies including Shannon entropy and Csiszar divergence. Modified measures of statistical divergence are introduced throughout the present article. Those modified measures are related to the Lin–Wong (LW) divergence applied on the past lifetime data. Accordingly, the relationship between Fisher information and the LW divergence measure was explored when applied on the past lifetime data. Throughout this study, a number of relations are proposed between various assessment methods which implement the Jensen–Shannon, Jeffreys, and Hellinger divergence measures. Also, relations between the LW measure and the Kullback–Leibler (KL) measures for past lifetime data were examined. Furthermore, the present study discusses the relationship between the proposed ordering scheme and the distance interval between LW and KL measures under certain conditions.     

Job-Related Well-Being of Immigrants

Social Indicators Research - Considerable literature exists on the acculturation and adaptation of immigrants. For the most part, studies looked at their psychological and social adaptation to the...