Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts’ Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies

Expert elicitations are now frequently used to characterize uncertain future technology outcomes. However, their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and overconfidence is a persistent problem. We provide quantitative evidence of how these choices affect experts’ estimates. We standardize data from 16 elicitations, involving 169 experts, on the 2030 costs of five energy technologies: nuclear, biofuels, bioelectricity, solar, and carbon capture. We estimate determinants of experts’ confidence using survey design, expert characteristics, and public R&D investment levels on which the elicited values are conditional. Our central finding is that when experts respond to elicitations in person (vs. online or mail) they ascribe lower confidence (larger uncertainty) to their estimates, but more optimistic assessments of best‐case (10th percentile) outcomes. The effects of expert affiliation and country of residence vary by technology, but in general: academics and public‐sector experts express lower confidence than private‐sector experts; and E.U. experts are more confident than U.S. experts. Finally, extending previous technology‐specific work, higher R&D spending increases experts’ uncertainty rather than resolves it. We discuss ways in which these findings should be seriously considered in interpreting the results of existing elicitations and in designing new ones.     

DESCRIBING DISABILITY THROUGH INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL MIXTURE MODELS FOR MULTIVARIATE BINARY DATA

Data on functional disability are of widespread policy interest in the United States, especially with respect to planning for Medicare and Social Security for a growing population of elderly adults. We consider an extract of functional disability data from the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) and attempt to develop disability profiles using variations of the Grade of Membership (GoM) model. We first describe GoM as an individual-level mixture model that allows individuals to have partial membership in several mixture components simultaneously. We then prove the equivalence between individual-level and population-level mixture models, and use this property to develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian estimation of the model. We use our approach to analyze functional disability data from the NLTCS.     

Perspectives of inclusive education in Russia

This paper discusses the issues of exclusion and inclusion of children with disabilities in educational policies. The background and context for inclusion in Russia is described, with a short overview of the history of special education and with the emphasis on the current legislative conditions for inclusion. The article analyzes peculiarities of the hidden curriculum in a Russian boarding school for children with disabilities, and discusses the ways in which special education constructs the students’ identities. In particular, practices of socialization in an educational institution for children with motor impairments are considered using the qualitative methodology of ethnographic observation and interviews. In addition, the attitudes of contemporary mainstream school students towards the idea of inclusive education are explored and a case of integration of a disabled child into a regular school setting is considered. Finally, the authors outline some policy recommendations and the prospects for inclusion.     

Statistical Adequacy and the Testing of Trend Versus Difference Stationarity

The debate on whether macroeconomic series are trend or difference stationary, initiated by Nelson and Plosser [Nelson, C. R.; Plosser, C. I. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics10:139-162] remains unresolved. The main objective of the paper is to contribute toward a resolution of this issue by bringing into the discussion the problem of statistical adequacy. The paper revisits the empirical results of Nelson and Plosser [Nelson, C. R.; Plosser, C. I. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics10:139-162] and Perron [Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica57:1361-1401] and shows that several of their estimated models are misspecified. Respecification with a view to ensuring statistical adequacy gives rise to heteroskedastic AR(k) models for some of the price series. Based on estimated models which are statistically adequate, the main conclusion of the paper is that the majority of the data series are trend stationary.     

Refining the Concept of Political Will: A Gender Perspective

While politics are known to be prevalent at managerial levels, there is currently little insight into what drives managers to engage in organizational politics and whether there are gender differences in this respect. In the current study we explore the concept of political will by using a qualitative approach based on 14 semi‐structured interviews with managers (five men and nine women) in a global semiconductor company. We identify key dimensions of managerial political will consisting of three attitudinal ambivalences: functional, ethical and emotional. We also examine gender differences along these dimensions and discuss managers' political will in the context of a masculine organizational setting. We conclude by discussing the theoretical and practical implications of the findings and further research directions.     

A control chart for variance based on squared ranks

A nonparametric control chart for variance is proposed. The chart is constructed following the change-point approach through the recursive use of the squared ranks test for variance. It is capable of detecting changes in the behaviour of individual observations with performance similar to a self-starting CUSUM chart for scale when normality is assumed, and a relatively better power when assessing nonnormal observations. A comparison is also made with two equivalent nonparametric charts based on Mood and Ansari-Bradley statistics. When dealing with symmetrical distributions, the proposed chart shows smaller (better) out-of-control average run length (ARL), and a competing performance otherwise. In addition, sensitivity to changes in mean and variance at the same time was tested. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation was used to measure performance, and a practical example is provided to illustrate how the proposed control chart can be implemented in practice.     

After the End of History

Over the last century, the national approach has been the mainstream conception leading superpowers’ foreign policy, while the end of the Cold War brought about the worldwide multiplication of local conflicts. This differs from the past as this extensive international fragmentation urgently requires the adaptation of a new theoretical model to current international relations. This implies the re-consideration of some basic concepts such as national sovereignty, whose traditional fixed borders tend now to blur with a set of overlapping clusters of jurisdictional, economic, political, cultural interests.     

Gated Communities in the United States: From Case Studies to Systematic Evidence

Scholarly research about gated communities is a recently established field of study, because the significant proliferation of these communities has occurred in the last couple of decades. In this article, I argue that the seminal work of Blakely and Snyder (1997, Fortress America: Gated communities in the United States. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.) gave the first impetus and the initial research directions in gated communities’ study. The subsequent research established it as a true interdisciplinary urban field and produced important knowledge across several different academic disciplines: sociology, political science, anthropology, urban policy and planning, geography, and legal studies. The article discusses this first phase of theoretical and empirical work, based mostly on qualitative and secondary data sources. A new methodological shift is proposed, which should determine the second phase of research based on hypotheses testing and collection of systematic empirical evidence. Such evidence is essential to understand the wider impact of gated communities on larger urban areas and society as a whole.     

Five-Way Experiential Learning Model for Social Work Education

Social workers exercise their practice skills by helping clients find strengths and solutions. In order to comprehensively practice skills for diverse client situations, it is crucial to practice and fine-tune the applications of various therapeutic approaches through clinical drills. This paper presents an experiential learning model, expanded from Kolb's Learning Cycle, which fits the dynamic pedagogical needs of the social work profession. It examines the implementation of the use of the ‘Five-Way Experiential Learning Model’ based on practice learning through personal reflections and professional evaluations. This practice learning study helped 79 MSW students define their ‘five-way learning’ and to analyze its impact on their acquisition of social work skills and clinical practice competencies. This process demonstrates the importance of the transtheoretical connection to achieve a better understanding of clients' situations through the process of change and peer input. Discussions will focus on the model elements, results on experiential learning, and ethical considerations.