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221.
While most of the literature on measurement error focuses on additive measurement error, we consider in this paper the multiplicative
case. We apply the Simulation Extrapolation method (SIMEX)—a procedure which was originally proposed by Cook and Stefanski
(J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 89:1314–1328, 1994) in order to correct the bias due to additive measurement error—to the case where data are perturbed by multiplicative noise
and present several approaches to account for multiplicative noise in the SIMEX procedure. Furthermore, we analyze how well
these approaches reduce the bias caused by multiplicative perturbation. Using a binary probit model, we produce Monte Carlo
evidence on how the reduction of data quality can be minimized.
For helpful comments, we would like to thank Helmut Küchenhoff, Winfried Pohlmeier, and Gerd Ronning. Sandra Nolte gratefully
acknowledges financial support by the DFG. Elena Biewen and Martin Rosemann gratefully acknowledge the financial support by
the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The usual disclaimer applies. 相似文献
222.
223.
Helping professions address the growing number of social problems which have emerged, along with contextual changes in Russian society, culture and state social policy. Social work only emerged in Russia in 1991 and it still lacks recognition by public opinion and by other caring professions. This paper addresses the current development of the social work profession in Russia, considers its context and reviews the main issues affecting processes within social work practice and education. Many social work agencies are in search of new forms of organization and are trying to develop new philosophies of service, in order to build positive relations with communities. However, given the 70 years of the Soviet era when social protection was highly centralized and bureaucratized, the organizational cultures of the new social services sometimes reproduce old patterns of bureaucracy, especially where employees lack professional education. The reflective practitioner type of professionalism is here argued to be more appropriate for social workers in today's Russia. The paper includes an analysis of interviews with social workers and administrators in a large Russian city and considers the results of an ethnographic study of social services in the same city. 相似文献
224.
Elena Kulinskaya 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(5):1121-1150
This paper deals with the asymptotics of a class of tests for association in 2-way contingency tables based on square forms in cell frequencies, given the total number of observations (multinomial sampling) or one set of marginal totals (stratified sampling). The case when both row and column marginal totals are fixed (hypergeometric sampling) was studied in Kulinskaya (1994), The class of tests under consideration includes a number of classical measures for association, Its two subclasses are the tests based on statistics using centralized cell frequencies (asymptotically distributed as weighted sums of central chi-squares) and those using the non-centralized cell frequencies (asymptotically normal). The parameters of asymptotic distributions depend on the sampling model and on true marginal probabilities. Maximum efficiency for asymptotically normal statistics is achieved under hypergeometric sampling, If the cell frequencies or the statistic as a whole are centralized using marginal proportions as estimates for marginal probabilities, the asymptotic distribution does not differ much between models and it is equivalent to that under hypergeometric sampling. These findings give an extra justification for the use of permutation tests for association (which are based on hypergeometric sampling). As an application, several well known measures of association are analysed. 相似文献
225.
Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts’ Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies
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Expert elicitations are now frequently used to characterize uncertain future technology outcomes. However, their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and overconfidence is a persistent problem. We provide quantitative evidence of how these choices affect experts’ estimates. We standardize data from 16 elicitations, involving 169 experts, on the 2030 costs of five energy technologies: nuclear, biofuels, bioelectricity, solar, and carbon capture. We estimate determinants of experts’ confidence using survey design, expert characteristics, and public R&D investment levels on which the elicited values are conditional. Our central finding is that when experts respond to elicitations in person (vs. online or mail) they ascribe lower confidence (larger uncertainty) to their estimates, but more optimistic assessments of best‐case (10th percentile) outcomes. The effects of expert affiliation and country of residence vary by technology, but in general: academics and public‐sector experts express lower confidence than private‐sector experts; and E.U. experts are more confident than U.S. experts. Finally, extending previous technology‐specific work, higher R&D spending increases experts’ uncertainty rather than resolves it. We discuss ways in which these findings should be seriously considered in interpreting the results of existing elicitations and in designing new ones. 相似文献
226.
Data on functional disability are of widespread policy interest in the United States, especially with respect to planning for Medicare and Social Security for a growing population of elderly adults. We consider an extract of functional disability data from the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) and attempt to develop disability profiles using variations of the Grade of Membership (GoM) model. We first describe GoM as an individual-level mixture model that allows individuals to have partial membership in several mixture components simultaneously. We then prove the equivalence between individual-level and population-level mixture models, and use this property to develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian estimation of the model. We use our approach to analyze functional disability data from the NLTCS. 相似文献
227.
Refining the Concept of Political Will: A Gender Perspective 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
While politics are known to be prevalent at managerial levels, there is currently little insight into what drives managers to engage in organizational politics and whether there are gender differences in this respect. In the current study we explore the concept of political will by using a qualitative approach based on 14 semi‐structured interviews with managers (five men and nine women) in a global semiconductor company. We identify key dimensions of managerial political will consisting of three attitudinal ambivalences: functional, ethical and emotional. We also examine gender differences along these dimensions and discuss managers' political will in the context of a masculine organizational setting. We conclude by discussing the theoretical and practical implications of the findings and further research directions. 相似文献
228.
Elena Cristina Villanueva-Guerra Vìctor Gustavo Tercero-Gómez William Jay Conover 《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2017,87(18):3537-3562
A nonparametric control chart for variance is proposed. The chart is constructed following the change-point approach through the recursive use of the squared ranks test for variance. It is capable of detecting changes in the behaviour of individual observations with performance similar to a self-starting CUSUM chart for scale when normality is assumed, and a relatively better power when assessing nonnormal observations. A comparison is also made with two equivalent nonparametric charts based on Mood and Ansari-Bradley statistics. When dealing with symmetrical distributions, the proposed chart shows smaller (better) out-of-control average run length (ARL), and a competing performance otherwise. In addition, sensitivity to changes in mean and variance at the same time was tested. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation was used to measure performance, and a practical example is provided to illustrate how the proposed control chart can be implemented in practice. 相似文献
229.
David Akhvlediani Elena Cavagni Nato Chakvetadze Stefano Malvestio Elisa Paladini 《Transition Studies Review》2010,17(2):311-319
Over the last century, the national approach has been the mainstream conception leading superpowers’ foreign policy, while
the end of the Cold War brought about the worldwide multiplication of local conflicts. This differs from the past as this
extensive international fragmentation urgently requires the adaptation of a new theoretical model to current international
relations. This implies the re-consideration of some basic concepts such as national sovereignty, whose traditional fixed
borders tend now to blur with a set of overlapping clusters of jurisdictional, economic, political, cultural interests. 相似文献
230.