Wann werden Ehen getrennt?

With regard to marriages, numerous studies have reported a time-dependent course of the dissolution rate, which is characterized by an initial rise and a subsequent decline after a couple of years. The article at hand discusses potential explanations for the correlation of marital duration and the risk of dissolution and examines them on the basis of the Family Survey 2000. The results indicate, among other things, that the concentration of childbirths in an early stage of marriage leads to a slow-down of the initial rise of the dissolution rate whereas it weakens its later decline as the stabilizing effect of shared children on marriage decreases when the children become older. There are significant differences with respect to the dependency of the dissolution risk on marital duration between the successive marriage cohorts, depending on the wife’s occupation, age at marriage as well as between couples who did vs. those who did not cohabitate before marriage. The results suggest that relationship-specific processes as well as changes of the marital preconditions resulting from the partners’ respective ages contribute to the explanation of the course of the dissolution rate.     

Moral sentiments and social choice

We examine the implications, for social choice, of individuals having an intrinsic sense of fairness. Taking the viewpoint that social justice reflects the moral attitudes of the constituent members, we analyze the effect of the intensity of the individual sense of fairness on the solution of Nash bargaining over random allocation procedures. We use a stylized model of university admission policies to illustrate our approach. We show that even if social policies are ultimately determined by the bargaining power of the different groups, a society whose members have a common notion of fairness tends to implement fairer admission policies when the intensity of the sense of fairness of individual members increases. While working on the research that is summarized in this paper the authors visited several institutions. Edi Karni visited the Berglas School of Economics, Tel Aviv University and GRID, at Ecole Normale Superieur de Cachan. Zvi Safra visited CERMCEM and EUREQua, at the University of Paris I and LIP6, at the University of Paris 6. The hospitality of these institutions is gratefully acknowledged. We are also grateful to the editor and two anonymous referees for their very useful comments and suggestions. Zvi Safra thanks The Israel Science Foudation (grant 1299/05) for its support.     

Linking Financial Strain to Marital Instability: Examining the Roles of Emotional Distress and Marital Interaction

Using a sample consisting of 4,997 married couples from the National Survey of Families and Households, individual emotional distress, the occurrence of couple disagreements, couple fighting, and couple quality time together mediated the relationship between financial strain and personal assessments of marital instability. The overall results suggest that financial strain influences both positive and negative forms of couple interaction which are stronger mediators than personal emotional distress of the relationship between financial strain and marital instability. The results further suggest that there were no gender differences among these linkages.     

Transitional appreciation of equilibrium exchange rates and the ERM II

A suitable parity for exchange rate fixing can be derived from an analysis of the equilibrium exchange rate. As the equilibrium exchange rates of the new EU 5 countries, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, and the Slovak Republic, tend to exhibit appreciation trends, credibility of the potential commitment to fixed exchange rate parity with respect to the euro can be undermined. In order to investigate this issue, we estimate a behavioral model of real exchange rates for EU 5 countries and derive the respective equilibrium real exchange rates. Using the linear-quadratic filter we estimate permanent equilibrium exchange rates and their stationary points. We find that as of 2004 fixing of the national currencies to the euro should not be undermined by further significant trend appreciation in the equilibrium exchange rates of the EU 5 countries, in aggregate.     

Zum Einfluss regionaler Arbeitslosigkeit auf Einstellungen zur sozialen Gerechtigkeit

Im Vordergrund des Beitrags steht die Erweiterung der bisherigen Erkl?rungsans?tze zu Einstellungen zur sozialen Gerechtigkeit, welche sich vornehmlich auf rationale Motive im Hinblick auf die soziale Position und normative Wertvorstellungen aus dem kulturellen Kontext beziehen. Diese traditionellen Ans?tze werden um Einflüsse der regionalen Arbeitslosigkeit erg?nzt. Eine zentrale Rolle nimmt dabei zun?chst die theoretische Auseinandersetzung mit dem Einfluss des regionalen Kontextes auf Einstellungen und Handlungen im Allgemeinen ein. Ausgehend von Boudons cognitivist model werden diese Mechanismen anschlie?end in ein umfassendes theoretisches Konzept zusammen mit den rationalen und normativen Einflussfaktoren integriert. In einem zweiten Schritt wird das erweiterte theoretische Modell mit Hilfe von Mehrebenenmodellen empirisch überprüft. Datenbasis sind zum einen die Umfragedaten des International Social Justice Project aus 2006 und zum anderen die Informationen zu Raumordnungsregionen der Arbeitsmarktstatistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit. Die empirischen Analysen unterstützen weitgehend die Untersuchung von regionalen Einflussfaktoren neben individuellen Merkmalen.     

Power Mapping: Enhancing Sociological Knowledge by Developing Generalizable Analytical Public Tools

In this article, I argue for and illustrate ‘power mapping’ as a concrete research approach that can benefit specific publics while enhancing professional sociological knowledge and theory. I present power mapping as an example of a more broad approach to public sociology which seeks to harness sociological theory and knowledge in order to create generalizable analytical tools that social movements, policy makers, concerned citizens, voluntary associations, and community organizations can use to develop their own strategic assessments of the sociological contexts in which they act. One of the ironies of the current discussion of public sociology is that it has been conducted in an abstract, hyper-theoretical discourse which is precisely one of the factors that has disconnected so much sociology from general publics. In this article, I instead turn towards presenting a specific concrete research strategy which could engender mutually beneficial research collaboration and dialogue between sociologists and specific publics.     

Can preferences for catastrophe avoidance reconcile social discounting with intergenerational equity?

A social welfare function treating all generations equally is derived from a set of axioms that allow for preferences for catastrophe avoidance or risk equity. Implications for the case where there is a risk of world extinction are studied. We show that substantial time discounting can arise from the planner’s taste for catastrophe avoidance, even if the probability of the world ending is infinitesimally small. We wish to thank Marc Fleurbaey, Thibault Gajdos, two anonymous referees and an associate editor for many valuable comments.     

Choice and circumstance: Qualitative insights into contemporary childlessness in Australia

Using data from in-depth interviews with 115 women, men and couples in eastern Australia for whom family formation was a recent, current or imminent future issue, this article explores contemporary childlessness among those physically able to have children. It differentiates between those childless by choice and by circumstance, and among other themes highlights (i) the role preservation of lifestyle appears to play as a motive for deliberate childlessness following development of a life course through early adulthood that both generates lifestyle aspirations and often places parenthood on the backburner until after age 30, and (ii) the roles difficulty forming suitable relationships, women’s desire for meaningful careers, and male involvement in family formation decisions play in bringing about childlessness by circumstance.