Two-Stage Estimation in Copula Models Used in Family Studies

In this paper register based family studies provide the motivation for studying a two-stage estimation procedure in copula models for multivariate failure time data. The asymptotic properties of the estimators in both parametric and semi-parametric models are derived, generalising the approach by Shih and Louis (Biometrics vol. 51, pp. 1384–1399, 1995b) and Glidden (Lifetime Data Analysis vol. 6, pp. 141–156, 2000). Because register based family studies often involve very large cohorts a method for analysing a sampled cohort is also derived together with the asymptotic properties of the estimators. The proposed methods are studied in simulations and the estimators are found to be highly efficient. Finally, the methods are applied to a study of mortality in twins.     

Learning from the Piper Alpha Accident: A Postmortem Analysis of Technical and Organizational Factors

The accident that occurred on board the offshore platform Piper Alpha in July 1988 killed 167 people and cost billions of dollars in property damage. It was caused by a massive fire, which was not the result of an unpredictable "act of God" but of an accumulation of errors and questionable decisions. Most of them were rooted in the organization, its structure, procedures, and culture. This paper analyzes the accident scenario using the risk analysis framework, determines which human decision and actions influenced the occurrence of the basic events, and then identifies the organizational roots of these decisions and actions. These organizational factors are generalizable to other industries and engineering systems. They include flaws in the design guidelines and design practices (e.g., tight physical couplings or insufficient redundancies), misguided priorities in the management of the tradeoff between productivity and safety, mistakes in the management of the personnel on board, and errors of judgment in the process by which financial pressures are applied on the production sector (i.e., the oil companies' definition of profit centers) resulting in deficiencies in inspection and maintenance operations. This analytical approach allows identification of risk management measures that go beyond the purely technical (e.g., add redundancies to a safety system) and also include improvements of management practices.     

From city club to nation state: business networks in American political development

Although cities were given no role in the constitutional order of the United States, the new nation posed the same potential threats to the accumulation of capital and wealth as European monarchs posed to long-powerful urban centers. In mobilizing for self-protection and advancement, American business developed new practices and discourses of citizenship that sustained a central role for the community as the locus of social provision. The strategy combined opportunity-hoarding through restricted membership in civic groups and obligation-hoarding through the alignment of diverse networks of voluntarism with this civic core. The linkage of business interests to this hybrid charitable-civic configuration constituted a source of resistance to nationalizing tendencies driven by demands for social protection. This alternative model of social provision and civic organization sustained a distinctive pattern of political membership and state development. By fiercely defending the capacity of privately governed civic networks to provide substantial social support, this history of business influence through community organizations lives on in the partial and fragmented character of the American welfare state.     

Capturing Relatedness: Comprehensive Measures based on Secondary Data

This paper presents new measures of technological and customer‐side relatedness constructed from widely available secondary data. Relatedness is a concept central to predicting the existence and nature of a relationship between corporate diversification and firm performance. Yet, finding appropriate measures has been an ongoing struggle. The widely used SIC‐based entropy measure has low construct validity, and survey‐based measures are hard to replicate across firms and industries and over time. The measures we develop significantly outperform established measures in explaining variation in firm performance across firms and over time, and both sources of relatedness are found to be independent and significant explanations of firm performance.     

Body-Related Emotions in Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Following Childhood Sexual Abuse

Traumatic experiences are associated with emotions such as anxiety, shame, guilt, disgust, and anger. For patients who have experienced child sexual abuse, these emotions might be triggered by perceptions of their own body. The aim of this study was to investigate the extent of the association of the body to traumatic experiences and to discern the emotions linked to trauma-associated body areas. Ninety-seven female participants were assigned to four groups: post-traumatic stress disorder following child sexual abuse with co-occurring borderline personality disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder following child sexual abuse without co-occurring borderline personality disorder, borderline personality disorder without post-traumatic stress disorder, and healthy controls. Participants rated 26 body areas regarding their association with trauma and 7 emotions. Emotions were assessed by questionnaires. Results suggest that specific areas of the body are associated with trauma and linked to highly aversive emotions. In post-traumatic stress disorder patients, the areas associated with highly negative emotions were the pubic region and inner thighs. Thus, the patient’s body may act as a trigger for traumatic memories.     

SOUTHERN (DIS)COMFORT: SEXUAL PREJUDICE AND CONTACT WITH GAY MEN AND LESBIANS IN THE SOUTH

Recent surveys have found antigay attitudes and behavior to be commonplace. In this article, we use contact theory to explain these prejudicial attitudes. We contribute to the literature on contact and prejudice by expanding contact to include not only whether the heterosexual knows any gay men or lesbians, but also how many, for how long, and in what ways. To these, we add a new and unique measure of contact: a person's contact with the gay community. The data are from a survey of 956 undergraduate students at a large urban university in the southeastern United States. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analyses find that contact with gay men and lesbians significantly reduces prejudice toward them; although, only as contact with gay friends or the gay community. Contact has stronger effects on women's prejudice than men's prejudice; however, the attitudes of African Americans toward lesbians and gay men are unaffected by gay contact. The results suggest that contact intervenes between prejudice and sex, race, religiosity, and gender attitudes.     

Ideas in action: the politics of Prussian child labor reform, 1817–1839

This article explains the political origins of an 1839 law regulating the factory employment of children in Prussia. The article has two aims. First, it seeks to explain why Prussia adopted the particular law that it did. Existing historical explanations of this particular policy change are not correct, largely because they fail to take into account the actual motivations and intentions of key reformers. Second, the article contributes to theories of the role of ideas in public policymaking. Ideas interact with institutional and political factors to serve as motivators and as resources for policy change. As motivators, they drive political action and shape the content of policy programs; as resources, they enable political actors to recruit supporters and forge alliances. I offer a theory of the relationship between ideas, motivation, and political action, and I develop a methodological framework for assessing the reliability of political actors’ expressed motivations. Further, I explain how political actors use ideas as resources by deploying three specific ideational strategies: framing, borrowing, and citing. By tracing how different understandings of the child labor problem motivated and were embodied in two competing child labor policy proposals, I show how the ideas underlying reform had significant consequences for policy outcomes.     

Experts,ideas, and policy change: the Russell Sage Foundation and small loan reform, 1909–1941

Between 1909 and 1941, the Russell Sage Foundation (RSF) was actively involved in crafting and lobbying for policy solutions to the pervasive problem of predatory lending. Using a rich assortment of archival records, I build upon political learning theory by demonstrating how institutional conditions and political pressures – in addition to new knowledge gained through scientific study and practical experience – all contributed to the emergence and development of RSF experts’ policy ideas over the course of this 30-year period. In light of these findings, I suggest that policy ideas and political interests are mutually constitutive, and that the notion that ideas must be shown to operate independent of interests in order to “prove” that they matter in policymaking is misguided. Furthermore, I discuss the implications of the remarkable success of RSF’s policy proposals for current understandings of institutional change. In particular, I argue that the passage of RSF’s controversial Uniform Small Loan Law in 34 states suggests that political actors’ collective agency can produce significant policy reforms in a context of normal policymaking without the intervention of major destabilizing events.

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