On “Black Swans” and “Perfect Storms”: Risk Analysis and Management When Statistics Are Not Enough

Two images, “black swans” and “perfect storms,” have struck the public's imagination and are used—at times indiscriminately—to describe the unthinkable or the extremely unlikely. These metaphors have been used as excuses to wait for an accident to happen before taking risk management measures, both in industry and government. These two images represent two distinct types of uncertainties (epistemic and aleatory). Existing statistics are often insufficient to support risk management because the sample may be too small and the system may have changed. Rationality as defined by the von Neumann axioms leads to a combination of both types of uncertainties into a single probability measure—Bayesian probability—and accounts only for risk aversion. Yet, the decisionmaker may also want to be ambiguity averse. This article presents an engineering risk analysis perspective on the problem, using all available information in support of proactive risk management decisions and considering both types of uncertainty. These measures involve monitoring of signals, precursors, and near‐misses, as well as reinforcement of the system and a thoughtful response strategy. It also involves careful examination of organizational factors such as the incentive system, which shape human performance and affect the risk of errors. In all cases, including rare events, risk quantification does not allow “prediction” of accidents and catastrophes. Instead, it is meant to support effective risk management rather than simply reacting to the latest events and headlines.     

‘I Need Help on Mondays,It’s Not My Day. The Other Days,I’m OK’.—Perspectives of Disabled Children on Inclusive Education

This article examines the experience of inclusive education from the perspective of disabled children. We worked with the observations of, and interviews with, 15 children, aged 5–17 who go to a mainstream school. The study is set in the context of a 3‐year research project exploring the practice of inclusive education in Flanders. Here, we report on the key findings from the children’s accounts, focusing on what they had to say about themselves, what they think about school, friends, support and their future prospects.     

Time with sons and daughters

We present a model of parental investment in child quality in which the effectiveness??objectively or as perceived by the parents??of parental childcare depends on the sex of the child. In particular, the time of the same-sex parent is more productive than that of the opposite-sex parent. When parents have equal wages, efficiency considerations dictate that a parent spends more time with a same-sex child than with an opposite-sex child, but parents allocate the same total time to boys and girls, and costs of raising a boy are the same as raising a girl. When wage rates differ, and the mother is the lower-waged parent, it is cheaper to produce child quality of girls than of boys. We show that many of the empirical results in terms of a different time allocation pattern, total amount of time invested in a child, expenditures on child consumption goods, and family size and composition can be explained by this technological difference and the gender wage gap, without relying on parental preferences for girls versus boys. Our analysis is largely diagrammatic.     

Cross-disciplinary problem-solving workshop: a pedagogical approach to anticipate ergonomist engineering design collaboration

The aims of this paper are to present concept and results of an innovative educational model approach based on ergonomics involvement in industrial project. First we present Cross disciplinary Problem solving Workshop by answering three questions:1) What is a CPW: A partnership between Universities and one or several companies, purposes of it are first to increase health, well being, companies teams competencies, and competitiveness, second to train the "IPOD generation" to include risks prevention in design. 2) How does it work? CPW allows cooperation between experience and new insight through inductive methods. This model follows the Piaget (1) philosophy linking concrete world to abstraction by a learning system associating realization and abstraction. 3) Is it successful? In order to answer this third question we will show examples of studies and models performed during CPWs.It appears that the CPWs produce visible results in companies such as new process designs, new methods, and also changes in lectures. However some less visible results remain unclear: How the company personnel evolve during and after CPW? Does CPW motivate our future engineers enough to continuously improve their skills in risk prevention and innovative design?     

“She was a little bit unrealistic”: Choice in healthcare decision making for older people

This paper examines autonomy, choice, options, and power in healthcare decision making for older people. Using discourse analysis and a case study from data gathered as part of an ethnographic field study we critique a common conceptualization of healthcare decision making as patients choosing from an array of options offered by healthcare providers. A discourse of “giving options and being realistic” used by healthcare providers is contrasted with the experience of a single patient's transitional care from hospital to home after hip fracture. This illustrates how a wide variety of actors, institutions, values, and resources take precedence in determining a discharge destination. While the accounts given by healthcare providers cast patient choice in respectful terms, an ethnographic approach illustrates that the “choices” are structured by a discourse which simplifies the complexity of what is offered and who gets to choose. In the case study the patient's choice was subjugated by expertise and institutional concerns; her options were largely illusory; and her autonomy was “at risk” due to her age, poor health, and limited resources. We use Foucault's ideas about discourse and governmentality to question the scope of agency in healthcare decision making. We argue that the conceptualization of informed patients making autonomous choices acts as “misdirection” which deflects problem solving and discussion away from a productive examination of the differences between healthcare system offerings and client needs. We conclude by posing questions to reorient the debate surrounding healthcare decision making for older adults and recommend a more participatory approach to designing social services.     

ViSC Social Competence Program

The ViSC Social Competence Program has been implemented in Austrian schools within the scope of a national strategy plan, Together Against Violence. The program is a primary preventive program designed for grades 5 to 8. The prevention of aggression and bullying is defined as a school development task, and the initial implementation of the program lasts one school year. The program consists of universal and specific actions that are implemented through in-school teacher training and a class project for students. The program was evaluated with a randomized intervention control group design. Data were collected from teachers and students. Results suggest that the program reduces aggression in schools.     

Organizational Conflict,Technology and Space: A Swedish Case Study of the Gender System and the Economic System in Action

The aim of this article is to show how the existing gender division of labour in an organization, the Department for Topographical Maps at the Swedish National Survey, was disrupted by the implementation of new technology, namely CAD (Computer Aided Design)-equipment. In this case the new technology was given to the female draughtpersons, not the male engineers, a surprising outcome considering the close relations between masculinity and technology often stated and proved. The explanation seems to be that space in this case was the most important factor in the organizational gender constructions. The outcome was a surprise to management. Most employees, both men and women, resisted the transition but for different reasons. The economic rationality was strong enough to change the gender division of labour but not strong enough to prevent the gender regime from remaining.     

Racism and anti-racism in placement reports

The focus of this article is upon the way in which practice teachers and students considered individual and institutional racism and anti-racism in a sample of 40 placement reports. First of all we will examine the background to the development of CCETSW policies and requirements for social work courses and the way in which they consider racism and anti-racism. Then we will consider the limitations and aims of our research. We will present a brief summary of our findings which contrasts the content of the placement reports from two cohorts of students in 1995 and 1997, whose reports were prepared using two different placement report frameworks: one framework developed from CCETSW's 1989 guidelines, the other framework from the revised guidelines dating from 1995. We go on to consider in some depth the overall comments of practice teachers and students in the placement reports about work with black clients/users, the use of 'what if' scenarios and case studies. We continue by examining the way in which students considered the numbers of black people in the local population, and the use made by black people of the placement agencies. Also examination is made of multiple oppression, any challenges to racism made by students, differences in terminology used to consider issues associated with 'race' and the attention given to racism and anti-racism as future learning needs. Finally, we consider implications for future research and a summary of the findings.     

Coming together and pulling apart: Exploring the influence of functional status on co-resident relationships in assisted living

Social relationships can have considerable influence on physical and mental well-being in later life, particularly for those in long-term care settings such as assisted living (AL). Research set in AL suggests that other residents are among the most available social contacts and that co-resident relationships can affect life satisfaction, quality of life, and well-being. Functional status is a major factor influencing relationships, yet AL research has not studied in-depth or systematically considered the role it plays in residents' relationships. This study examines the influences of physical and mental function on co-resident relationships in AL and identifies the factors shaping the influence of functional status. We present an analysis of qualitative data collected over a one-year period in two distinct AL settings. Data collection included: participant observation, informal interviews, and formal in-depth interviews with staff, residents, administrators and visitors, as well as surveys with residents. Grounded theory methods guided our data collection and analysis. Our analysis identified the core category, “coming together and pulling apart”, which signifies that functional status is multi-directional, fluid, and operates in different ways in various situations and across time. Key facility- (e.g., admission and retention practices, staff intervention) and resident-level (e.g., personal and situational characteristics) factors shape the influence of functional status on co-resident relationships. Based on our findings, we suggest strategies for promoting positive relationships among residents in AL, including the need to educate staff, families, and residents.     

Involuntary celibacy: A life course analysis

Using a life course perspective, we explored the development and maintenance of involuntary celibacy for 82 respondents recruited over the I'nternet. Data were collected using an open‐ended electronic questionnaire. Modified grounded theory analysis yielded three groups of involuntary celibates, persons desiring to have sex but unable to find partners. Virgins were those who had never had sex, singles had sex in the past but were unable to establish current sexual relationships, and part‐nereds were currently in sexless relationships. These groups differed on dating experiences, the circumstances surrounding their celibacy, barriers to sexual activity, and the perceived likelihood of becoming sexually active. They were similar, however, in their negative reactions to celibacy. Pervasive in our respondents’ accounts was the theme of becoming and remaining off time in making normative sexual transitions, which in turn perpetuated a celibate life course or trajectory.