Project Re•Vision: disability at the edges of representation

The representational history of disabled people can largely be characterized as one of being put on display or hidden away. Self-representations have been a powerful part of the disability rights and culture movement, but recently scholars have analysed the ways in which these run the risk of creating a ‘single story’ that centres the experiences of white, western, physically disabled men. Here we introduce and theorize with Project Re?Vision, our arts-based research project that resists this singularity by creating and centring, without normalizing, representations that have previously been relegated to the margins. We draw from body becoming and new materialist theory to explore the dynamic ways in which positionality illuminates bodies of difference and open into a discussion about what is at stake when these stories are let loose into the world.     

Risk Perception and Movies: A Study of Availability as a Factor in Risk Perception

Media effects on risk perception have often been explained by Tversky and Kahneman's availability principle, but research has not consistently supported it. What seem like media effects based on availability may be effects of new information. In an experimental study, entertainment movies depicting dramatic risk events were shown. They were found to produce no average effects on perceived risks in spite of large mood effects and being perceived as credible. We found, however, evidence of idiosyncratic effects of the movies, that is, people reacted immediately after the movies with enhanced  or  diminished risk beliefs. These reactions had faded after 10 days. Implications for the availability heuristic and risk perception are discussed.     

Conditional Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decision Making: The Case of WIPP

Uncertainty analyses and the reporting of their results can be misinterpreted when these analyses are conditional on a set of assumptions generally intended to bring some conservatism in the decisions. In this paper, two cases of conditional uncertainty analysis are examined. The first case includes studies that result, for instance, in a family of risk curves representing percentiles of the probability distribution of the future frequency of exceeding specified consequence levels conditional on a set of hypotheses. The second case involves analyses that result in an interval of outcomes estimated on the basis of conservative assumptions. Both types of results are difficult to use because they are sometimes misinterpreted as if they represented the output of a full uncertainty analysis. In the first case, the percentiles shown on each risk curve may be taken at face value when in reality (in marginal terms) they are lower if the chosen hypotheses are conservative. In the second case, the fact that some segments of the resulting interval are highly unlikely—or that some more benign segments outside the range of results are quite possible—does not appear. Also, these results are difficult to compare to those of analyses of other risks, possibly competing for the same risk management resources, and the decision criteria have to be adapted to the conservatism of the hypotheses. In this paper, the focus is on the first type (conditional risk curves) more than on the second and the discussion is illustrated by the case of the performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. For policy-making purposes, however, the problems of interpretation, comparison, and use of the results are similar.     

Food Safety Objectives Should Integrate the Variability of the Concentration of Pathogen

The World Trade Organization introduced the concept of appropriate level of protection (ALOP) as a public health target. For this public health objective to be interpretable by the actors in the food chain, the concept of food safety objective (FSO) was proposed by the International Commission on Microbiological Specifications for Foods and adopted later by the Codex Alimentarius Food Hygiene Committee. The way to translate an ALOP into a FSO is still in debate. The purpose of this article is to develop a methodological tool to derive a FSO from an ALOP being expressed as a maximal annual marginal risk. We explore the different models relating the annual marginal risk to the parameters of the FSO depending on whether the variability in the survival probability and in the concentration of the pathogen are considered or not. If they are not, determination of the FSO is straightforward. If they are, we propose to use stochastic Monte Carlo simulation models and logistic discriminant analysis in order to determine which sets of parameters are compatible with the ALOP. The logistic discriminant function was chosen such that the kappa coefficient is maximized. We illustrate this method by the example of the risks of listeriosis and salmonellosis in one type of soft cheese. We conclude that the definition of the FSO should integrate three dimensions: the prevalence of contamination, the average concentration per contaminated typical serving, and the dispersion of the concentration among those servings.     

An equilibrium analysis of the gender wage gap

Within a two‐sector general equilibrium model, women's productivity in the marketplace decreases with the amount of household work they perform at home. Assuming that men's and women's household labour inputs are complementary here we prove the existence of multiple equilibria. In some, men and women allocate their labour equally and earn identical wages. In others, they allocate labour differently and earn different wages. In this context, beliefs about the inferiority of women's productivity are shown to be self‐fulfilling. By use of numerical examples, we show that welfare is highest when spouses allocate labour equally and suggest policy recommendations.     

Eight years after – a follow‐up study of mothers and children at psychosocial risk who received early treatment: does early intervention leave its mark?

One‐hundred forty‐five mothers at psychosocial risk who, with their babies, had been given treatment at a parent–baby clinic during a 2‐year period starting in 1999, treatment designed to strengthen the mother–child relationship, were followed up 8 years later. Both the mothers who had agreed to take part in the treatment programme (n= 73) and those who had declined (n= 72) were searched for in the records of the Social Welfare office to determine if the treated mothers had been focused on to a lesser degree in the following 8 years than those who had declined treatment, a hypothesis that was initially put forward. The behaviour of the children whose mothers had undergone treatment (n= 46) was studied. The initial hypothesis had to be rejected; support and intervention from the social authorities had been equally common in both groups. However, the children of treated mothers had fewer externalizing behaviour than children of untreated mothers at psychosocial risk.     

The SAM Framework: Modeling the Effects of Management Factors on Human Behavior in Risk Analysis

Complex engineered systems, such as nuclear reactors and chemical plants, have the potential for catastrophic failure with disastrous consequences. In recent years, human and management factors have been recognized as frequent root causes of major failures in such systems. However, classical probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) techniques do not account for the underlying causes of these errors because they focus on the physical system and do not explicitly address the link between components' performance and organizational factors. This paper describes a general approach for addressing the human and management causes of system failure, called the SAM (System-Action-Management) framework. Beginning with a quantitative risk model of the physical system, SAM expands the scope of analysis to incorporate first the decisions and actions of individuals that affect the physical system. SAM then links management factors (incentives, training, policies and procedures, selection criteria, etc.) to those decisions and actions. The focus of this paper is on four quantitative models of action that describe this last relationship. These models address the formation of intentions for action and their execution as a function of the organizational environment. Intention formation is described by three alternative models: a rational model, a bounded rationality model, and a rule-based model. The execution of intentions is then modeled separately. These four models are designed to assess the probabilities of individual actions from the perspective of management, thus reflecting the uncertainties inherent to human behavior. The SAM framework is illustrated for a hypothetical case of hazardous materials transportation. This framework can be used as a tool to increase the safety and reliability of complex technical systems by modifying the organization, rather than, or in addition to, re-designing the physical system.     

Risk Assessment Based on Financial Data: Market Response to Airline Accidents

The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be used to update a previous assessment of the risk. In this paper, we take a different approach and consider the risk and the updating from the investor's point of view. Based on the market response to past airplane accidents, we examine which ones have created a surprise response and which ones are considered part of the risk of the airline business as previously assessed. To do so, we quantify the magnitude and the timing of the observed market response to catastrophic accidents, and we compare it to an estimate of the response that would be expected based on the true actual cost of the accident including direct and indirect costs (full-cost information response). First, we develop a method based on stock market data to measure the actual market response to an accident and we construct an estimate of the full-cost information response to such an event. We then compare the two figures for the immediate and the long-term response of the market for the affected firm, as well as for the whole industry group to which the firm belongs. As an illustration, we analyze a sample of ten fatal accidents experienced by major US domestic airlines during the last seven years. In four cases, we observed an abnormal market response. In these instances, it seems that the shareholders may have updated their estimates of the probability of a future accident in the affected airlines or more generally of the firm's future business prospects. This market reaction is not always easy to explain much less to anticipate, a fact which management should bear in mind when planning a firm's response to such an event.     

Lifestyles,and Risk Perception Consumer Behavior

In this article, the concept of lifestyle is traced to its early roots in personality psychology and in marketing. In the latter field, many commercial marketing firms have made strong claims as to the explanatory power of lifestyle dimensions, often based on procedures which have been kept secret, but researchers have seldom been able to verify such claims. In spite of this, the approach is very popular, has wide credibility and is often given very favorable media coverage. Probably because of this, it is often considered as a very important and promising approach by administrators working with the regulation of risk and risk communication. It may also be credible in some quarters because it affords a way of ‘explaining’ risk perception as being non-rational. In this paper, we give results from an empirical study of nuclear waste risk perception which is related to a basic risk perception model and three approaches to lifestyles: Kahle's List of Values, a Swedish adaptation of the ‘Agoramétrie’ approach suggested by a group of French researchers, and Dake and Wildavsky's Cultural Theory dimensions. It was found that nuclear waste risk perception could be modeled successfully with risk attitudes and perception data (basic model about 65% of the variance explained), but that lifestyle dimensions added virtually nothing to the explanatory power of the model. Lifestyle dimensions in isolation only explained a minor part of the variance.