Determining the importance of an independent variable: A path analytic solution

Various methods have been proposed for evaluating the importance of an independent variable in determining a given dependent variable. This paper suggests that the analysis of direct and indirect effects in a recursive causal model can provide a more satisfactory evaluation than the ordinary correlation and regression techniques commonly used. The interpretation of an independent variable's impact derived from a path model is generally more adequate because it is able to take into account the operation of indirect effects and spuriousness. To demonstrate this contention, data gathered by the author to explain organizational innovation are presented.     

扎,空间的反复

加拿大雕塑家Elisabeth Picard喜欢以常见的扎带为创作材料,将平凡无奇的扎带转化成犹如来自未来世界的雕塑作品.借着手工技巧,Picard熟稔地挥洒着这项工业材料.原本粗糙无华的扎带经过她的细心组织后,模拟出生物或地景的形态,并在作品中彰显出巧拙对比.而这种对材料的人为设计,亦透过组装、扭转、绘画以及半透明等...     

Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame‐shifting “lame excuses” for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning—especially from near‐misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk‐reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management.     

Dose‐Response Models Incorporating Aerosol Size Dependency for Francisella tularensis

The effect of bioaerosol size was incorporated into predictive dose‐response models for the effects of inhaled aerosols of Francisella tularensis (the causative agent of tularemia) on rhesus monkeys and guinea pigs with bioaerosol diameters ranging between 1.0 and 24 μm. Aerosol‐size‐dependent models were formulated as modification of the exponential and β‐Poisson dose‐response models and model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood methods and multiple data sets of quantal dose‐response data for which aerosol sizes of inhaled doses were known. Analysis of F. tularensis dose‐response data was best fit by an exponential dose‐response model with a power function including the particle diameter size substituting for the rate parameter k scaling the applied dose. There were differences in the pathogen's aerosol‐size‐dependence equation and models that better represent the observed dose‐response results than the estimate derived from applying the model developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP, 1994) that relies on differential regional lung deposition for human particle exposure.     

Perceptions of Randomized Security Schedules

Security of infrastructure is a major concern. Traditional security schedules are unable to provide omnipresent coverage; consequently, adversaries can exploit predictable vulnerabilities to their advantage. Randomized security schedules, which randomly deploy security measures, overcome these limitations, but public perceptions of such schedules have not been examined. In this experiment, participants were asked to make a choice between attending a venue that employed a traditional (i.e., search everyone) or a random (i.e., a probability of being searched) security schedule. The absolute probability of detecting contraband was manipulated (i.e., 1/10, 1/4, 1/2) but equivalent between the two schedule types. In general, participants were indifferent to either security schedule, regardless of the probability of detection. The randomized schedule was deemed more convenient, but the traditional schedule was considered fairer and safer. There were no differences between traditional and random schedule in terms of perceived effectiveness or deterrence. Policy implications for the implementation and utilization of randomized schedules are discussed.     

Model Uncertainty and Bayesian Model Averaged Benchmark Dose Estimation for Continuous Data

The benchmark dose (BMD) approach has gained acceptance as a valuable risk assessment tool, but risk assessors still face significant challenges associated with selecting an appropriate BMD/BMDL estimate from the results of a set of acceptable dose‐response models. Current approaches do not explicitly address model uncertainty, and there is an existing need to more fully inform health risk assessors in this regard. In this study, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) BMD estimation method taking model uncertainty into account is proposed as an alternative to current BMD estimation approaches for continuous data. Using the “hybrid” method proposed by Crump, two strategies of BMA, including both “maximum likelihood estimation based” and “Markov Chain Monte Carlo based” methods, are first applied as a demonstration to calculate model averaged BMD estimates from real continuous dose‐response data. The outcomes from the example data sets examined suggest that the BMA BMD estimates have higher reliability than the estimates from the individual models with highest posterior weight in terms of higher BMDL and smaller 90th percentile intervals. In addition, a simulation study is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the BMA BMD estimator. The results from the simulation study recommend that the BMA BMD estimates have smaller bias than the BMDs selected using other criteria. To further validate the BMA method, some technical issues, including the selection of models and the use of bootstrap methods for BMDL derivation, need further investigation over a more extensive, representative set of dose‐response data.     

State of the Art in Risk Analysis of Workforce Criticality Influencing Disaster Preparedness for Interdependent Systems

The objective of this article is to discuss a needed paradigm shift in disaster risk analysis to emphasize the role of the workforce in managing the recovery of interdependent infrastructure and economic systems. Much of the work that has been done on disaster risk analysis has focused primarily on preparedness and recovery strategies for disrupted infrastructure systems. The reliability of systems such as transportation, electric power, and telecommunications is crucial in sustaining business processes, supply chains, and regional livelihoods, as well as ensuring the availability of vital services in the aftermath of disasters. There has been a growing momentum in recognizing workforce criticality in the aftermath of disasters; nevertheless, significant gaps still remain in modeling, assessing, and managing workforce disruptions and their associated ripple effects to other interdependent systems. The workforce plays a pivotal role in ensuring that a disrupted region continues to function and subsequently recover from the adverse effects of disasters. With this in mind, this article presents a review of recent studies that have underscored the criticality of workforce sectors in formulating synergistic preparedness and recovery policies for interdependent infrastructure and regional economic systems.     

Anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor antibody encephalitis: An important cause of encephalitis in young adults. A report of two cases

Encephalitis is a clinical syndrome which can include altered mental status, motor and sensory deficits, altered behavior including personality changes, speech and movement disorders and seizures. While the overall incidence of encephalitis is not known, it is common enough that most pediatric and adolescent medicine physicians will have seen at least one case. Peak times of risk include the newborn period and middle-to-late adolescence.¹ Dalmau J, Tüzün E, Wu HY, et al. Paraneoplastic anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor encephalitis associated with ovarian teratoma. Ann Neurol. 2007 Jan;61(1):25–36. doi:10.1002/ana.21050. PMID: 17262855.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] It is important for clinicians to have a working knowledge of the broad range of encephalitis etiologies: viral, post-viral, toxic, auto-immune, and paraneoplastic. We discuss two cases of encephalitis in young adult women with ovarian teratoma and production of anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) antibodies.     

Integrating self-care into clinical practice with trauma clients

ABSTRACT

Self-care is recognized as an important aspect of social work practice. Beginning in educational settings, developing social workers are encouraged to learn about and practice self-care. However, self-care is typically promoted through strategies and approaches outside of the practice context. Social workers are oftentimes encouraged to use individualized self-care plans, which often feature a variety of relaxation and secondary techniques; focus on self-awareness and self-reflection; and have proper use of supervision. Although these strategies are invaluable, they do little to directly benefit the social worker during direct practice or while in session with a client which is a time period when clinicians are particularly vulnerable to distress or burnout. The importance of real-time self-care strategies is particularly critical for clinicians, especially those who engage in trauma work, given the sensitivity of topics that clients may have endured or benefit from assistance in processing. Further, little information has been published on the use of self-care techniques during a session with a client or in a clinical context. The purpose of the present paper is to discuss self-care strategies that can be useful both outside of and within a clinical setting and present a model of such strategies that focus on integrating self-care in clinical practice particularly for those engaging in trauma work. The paper will conclude by discussing the relevancy of the developed model in practice.