Bayessche Indexmodelle in der Portfoliotheorie

An index model for determining efficient portfolios is considered. Subjective estimates by the investor concerning the future development are shown to be part of the decision process. The subjective assumptions refer to the parameters of the distribution of the index. A conjugate prior distribution is used to derive the moments of the index. Efficient portfolios depend on the subjective estimates by these moments.     

Gambling participation in Australia: findings from the national Household Expenditure Survey

Regression modeling is used to predict gambling patterns in Australia on the basis of the unit record files underlying the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Household Expenditure Survey of 6,892 households. The four largest categories of gambling expenditure are examined, namely: lottery tickets, lotto-type games and instant lottery (scratch cards), TAB (pari-mutuel wagering) and related on course betting, and poker (slot) machines and ticket machines. Determining factors analyzed include the source and level of household income, family composition and structure, welfare status, gender, age, ethnicity and geographic location. Apart from the determinants of expenditure varying widely across the different types of gambling activity, the results generally indicate that the source of household income is more important than the level of income and that household composition and regional location are likewise significant in determining gambling expenditure.      

DIFFERENTIAL DEPOSIT GUARANTEES AND THE EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY ON BANK LENDING

This paper utilizes differences in de jure deposit insurance coverage across banks and changes in coverage over time to identify a bank‐lending channel in Poland. Banks with partial guarantees have a stronger loan response to monetary policy than banks with full guarantees. Furthermore, the weak response of the fully guaranteed banks is attributed to their ability to raise low‐reserve, uninsured time deposits relative to the partially covered banks. When differential coverage is eliminated, there is no disparity in the loan response between the two groups. This lending channel has implications for credit control and financial system development in emerging markets. (JEL E52, G21, G28)     

Politics,Plurality and Problemsheds: A Strategic Approach for Reform of Agricultural Water Resources Management

Starting from the assessment that past efforts at reform in agricultural water management in developing countries have achieved very little, this article argues that a fundamental change is required in the approach to policy and institutional transformation if the present deadlock in the internalisation of ecological sustainability, human development/poverty alleviation and democratic governance into the ‘core business’ of water bureaucracies is to be overcome. ‘Social engineering’ approaches need to be replaced by ‘strategic action’ approaches that acknowledge the inherently political character and the plurality of actors, institutions and objectives of water management — a perspective operationalised here around the notions of ‘problemshed’ and ‘issue network’.     

Children of sex rings

Children who have been sexually abused by a ring of adults present in a way that may confuse and mislead practitioners familiar only with single-offender sexual abuse. Understanding the similarities and differences between single- and multiple-offender sexual abuse is essential in determining the validity of a child's disclosure as well as in carrying out an appropriate treatment plan. Addressing the denial and resistance within the child welfare system in relation to child sexual exploitation by a ring is crucial to a practitioner's effectiveness. Finally, developing a therapeutic parent-child relationship is critical to the families who must live with their child's experience.     

How Resource Dependency Can Influence Social Resilience within a Primary Resource Industry*

Abstract Maintaining a healthy balance between human prosperity and environmental integrity is at the core of the principles of Ecological Sustainable Development. Resource‐protection policies are frequently implemented so as to regulate the balance between resource access and use, however, they can inadvertently compromise the ability of resource users to adapt and be resilient. Resource users who are especially dependent on a resource are more seriously compromised. But how do we define and measure resource dependency? And how do we assess its ability to influence social resilience? In this study, a conceptual model of resource dependency is developed in terms of: (i) occupational attachment, (ii) attachment to place, (iii) employability, (iv) family attitude to change, (v) business size, (vi) business approach, (vii) financial situation, (viii) level of specialisation, (ix) time spent harvesting, and (x) interest in and knowledge of the environment. The model of resource dependency and its effect on social resilience are (quantitatively and qualitatively) tested and explored using the commercial fishing industry in North Queensland, Australia. Results show that occupational attachment and employability were important influences as were business size and approach. Results can be used to identify vulnerability to institutional change and guide policy development processes.     

Child,Parent, and Situational Correlates of Familial Ethnic/Race Socialization

This study examines child, parent, and situational correlates of familial ethnic/race socialization using nationally representative data gathered as part of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998 – 1999 (ECLS‐K). The ECLS‐K sample (N = 18,950) includes White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, American Indian, and multiracial kindergarteners, with survey data available at the child, parent/guardian, teacher, and school level. We find that child correlates such as race and gender, parent correlates such as education and warmth of parent‐child relationship, and situational correlates such as percent of minorities at the child’s school and cultural event participation influence how often family members discuss children’s ethnic/racial heritage with them. We advocate for continued research of contextualized family dynamics.     

CALIBRATING MEASURES OF FAMILY ACTIVITIES BETWEEN LARGE- AND SMALL-SCALE DATA SETS

Two studies of working families are combined to demonstrate a strategy for producing reliable estimates from the combination of self-reported (large N) and observational (small N) data. Both studies examine where and how dual-career families spend time at home. The 500 Family Study is sociological and uses self-reported time diary data from a national sample; the CELF study is anthropological and uses observational scan sampling data from a regional sample of 32 families. The data are combined as if they constitute one sample, and an analytic solution for establishing the reliability of the resulting composite estimates of time use is provided. Merging the data sets provides validation for each study, neither of which is without potential methodological weaknesses. The advantages of combining data from the independent data collection methods are discussed, and selected substantive findings on families' activities are highlighted, illustrating similarities and differences between findings in the independent and combined data sets. Results show that working families spend significant time in a small spectrum of home spaces, particularly kitchens and living rooms, with leisure activities prevailing, but mothers, fathers, and children differ in where and how they spend their time. Overall, a template for merging data from different disciplines and methods is provided.