Asymptotically Optimal Nonparametric Empirical Bayes Via Predictive Recursion

An empirical Bayes problem has an unknown prior to be estimated from data. The predictive recursion (PR) algorithm provides fast nonparametric estimation of mixing distributions and is ideally suited for empirical Bayes applications. This article presents a general notion of empirical Bayes asymptotic optimality, and it is shown that PR-based procedures satisfy this property under certain conditions. As an application, the problem of in-season prediction of baseball batting averages is considered. There the PR-based empirical Bayes rule performs well in terms of prediction error and ability to capture the distribution of the latent features.     

Bias reduction for the maximum likelihood estimator of the doubly-truncated Poisson distribution

ABSTRACT

We derive an analytic expression for the bias of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter in a doubly-truncated Poisson distribution, which proves highly effective as a means of bias correction. For smaller sample sizes, our method outperforms the alternative of bias correction via the parametric bootstrap. Bias is of little concern in the positive Poisson distribution, the most common form of truncation in the applied literature. Bias appears to be the most severe in the doubly-truncated Poisson distribution, when the mean of the distribution is close to the right (upper) truncation.     

An Approximate Bayesian Marginal Likelihood Approach for Estimating Finite Mixtures

Estimation of finite mixture models when the mixing distribution support is unknown is an important problem. This article gives a new approach based on a marginal likelihood for the unknown support. Motivated by a Bayesian Dirichlet prior model, a computationally efficient stochastic approximation version of the marginal likelihood is proposed and large-sample theory is presented. By restricting the support to a finite grid, a simulated annealing method is employed to maximize the marginal likelihood and estimate the support. Real and simulated data examples show that this novel stochastic approximation and simulated annealing procedure compares favorably with existing methods.     

Contributors

Abstract

The authors respond to an article on the role of the International Standard Serial Number (ISSN) as a manifestation (format) identifier of serials. They discuss some of the challenges that multiple manifestations present for the ISSN Network, some proposed solutions to this problem, and invite further input and dialogue on the topic. Serials Review 2003; 29:97–99.     

Employee financial wellness programs: Opportunities to promote financial inclusion?

ABSTRACT

Employee financial wellness programs (EFWPs) are a new practice that may promote financial inclusion by making it easier for workers with low- and moderate-incomes (LMI) to access financial services. We examine the strengths and limitations of workplace financial counseling, credit-building services, and small-dollar loans, and describe community collaboration to promote employee financial wellness. Findings suggest that these services are reaching a population that experiences financial exclusion, though evidence is mixed concerning how these services help workers with LMI resolve key financial challenges. Community collaboration focused on employee financial wellness presents opportunities to advocate for higher wages and better benefits.     

Truth® ads,receptivity, and motivation to use or quit tobacco among college students

Abstract

Objective: Examine receptivity and motivation to use/quit tobacco among college students after viewing Truth ads. Participants: Random sample of 10,000 college students invited to complete online survey February 2016 (8.5% response rate). Methods: Quasi-experimental. Participants (N?=?854) watched four ads and answered survey items for each ad. Results: Students rated ad receptivity and decreased motivation to use tobacco higher for the Catmageddon ad than the others. Regardless of ad, men and current cigarette smokers reported lower receptivity. Younger age was associated with lower motivation to use tobacco for all ads. Tobacco users reported greater motivation to quit with the Catmageddon ad. Conclusions: College students were receptive to the Truth ads, and many indicated lower motivation to use tobacco. Men, older college students, and current cigarette smokers were less receptive to the ads, reinforcing the need to develop tailored campaigns to reach these subgroups.     

A Starting Point for Navigating the World of Daily Fantasy Basketball

Fantasy sports, particularly the daily variety in which new lineups are selected each day, are a rapidly growing industry. The two largest companies in the daily fantasy business, DraftKings and Fanduel, have been valued as high as $2 billion. This research focuses on the development of a complete system for daily fantasy basketball, including both the prediction of player performance and the construction of a team. First, a Bayesian random effects model is used to predict an aggregate measure of daily NBA player performance. The predictions are then used to construct teams under the constraints of the game, typically related to a fictional salary cap and player positions. Permutation based and K-nearest neighbors approaches are compared in terms of the identification of “successful” teams—those who would be competitive more often than not based on historical data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our system by comparing our predictions to those from a well-known analytics website, and by simulating daily competitions over the course of the 2015–2016 season. Our results show an expected profit of approximately $9,000 on an initial $500 investment using the K-nearest neighbors approach, a 36% increase relative to using the permutation-based approach alone. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Parents’ and children’s power effectiveness during polyadic family conflict: Process and outcome

Parent–child power effectiveness was investigated during naturally occurring polyadic family conflict with young children involving three or more family members. In 35/39 families, 210 conflict sequences were identified and coded for type of power, power effectiveness, and conflict outcome. Effective use of power overall and by each partner was assessed using two methods: microscopic (target’s response to an actor’s power move during the process of conflict) and macroscopic (power moves related to conflict outcome). Actor findings revealed that parents were more effective using certain types of power microscopically (i.e., simple, legitimate, reward) and macroscopically (i.e., simple, legitimate, questioning), whereas children were more effective using reward power macroscopically. Our findings support the unique qualities of the parent–child relationship and the complex context of polyadic family conflict. The study contributes to the literature on the socialization of young children in the family context.