Multistate projections by level of education for Portugal, 2011–2031

Educational attainment is an attribute that leads to a great distinction between the members of a population, including when considering their health and well-being, which are features to pursue within an aging society. The aim of this work was to produce demographic projections for the Portuguese population by sex, age group and level of educational attainment, for the period 2011–2031. Considering fertility, mortality and migration differentials by level of education, the population was projected using the multistate cohort-component method with a block Leslie matrix. Two scenarios were considered, one where educational attainment before 2011 remains constant and another in which educational attainment will follow the trend observed over the last decade, being the trend in the state proportion modelled using continuation ratio models. The results show an increase in the proportion of individuals who complete higher educational levels in almost all age groups of both sexes. Among women, only 13.6 % had completed some level of higher education in 2011, a figure that will rise to approximately 23.4 % in 2031, whereas among men this value was only 9.7 % and will also rise by 2031, reaching 15.5 %. We can expect the proportion of people with higher educational levels to continue to rise as the education of younger cohorts seems to evolve positively. This work will be particularly useful to study how the aging population and the rising levels of education can contribute to the planning and monitoring of public policies, although these findings can also be used in other research contexts.     

Hungarian verbal puzzles and the intensity of language contact

Grammaticality judgments of bilingual Hungarians in Slovakia and Ukraine vs. Yugoslavia show that overt objects are much more acceptable in the northern Slavic countries than in Yugoslavia. Two conflicting hypotheses have been advanced to explain this difference. The structural hypothesis claims that Serbian cliticization is responsible, while the socio-historical hypothesis claims that the difference in grammaticality judgments is due to a difference in the duration of Hungarian–Slavic language contact north of and south of present-day Hungary. Data from a seven-country survey (N = 846) show that there is a split between judgments in the northern vs. southern Slavic countries across a wide range of linguistic variables, which discredits the structural explanation for the object pro-drop variable, at least as the sole cause of change. Moreover, statistical analyses of 24 variables provide substantial empirical verification of Thomason and Kaufman's 'two crucial parameters of intensity of contact in a borrowing situation': time and level of bilingualism. It is shown that the 250 years of contact between Hungarian and Serbian has resulted in much smaller contact effects than the thousand-year-old contact of Hungarian with the northern Slavic languages. Bilingual Hungarians who constitute a local minority in the settlements where they live systematically favor the contact-induced variants of variables vis-a`-vis those who constitute a local majority.     

Mood and Audience Effects on Video Lottery Terminal Gambling

Little is known about the situational factors associated with gambling behavior. We induced 180 male participants (mean age: 21.6) into a positive, negative, or neutral mood prior to gambling on a video lottery terminal (VLT). While gambling, participants were observed by either a male peer, female peer, or no one. Induced mood had no effect on gambling behavior. Participants induced into a negative mood prior to gambling, however, reported more positive moods after gambling, whereas those with positive and neutral moods reported more negative moods after gambling. Participants observed by either a male or female peer spent less time gambling on the VLT compared to those not observed. Participants observed by a female peer lost less money relative to the other observer conditions. Degree of problem gambling in the last year had little influence on these effects. Some practical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Bootstrap methods for single structural change tests: power versus corrected size and empirical illustration

This paper assesses the performance of tests for a single structural change at unknown date when regressors are stationary, trending and when they have a break in mean. Size and power of the test procedures are compared in a simulation setup particularly aimed at autoregressive models using their limiting distribution and some bootstrap approximations. The comparisons are performed using graphical methods, namely P value discrepancy plots and size–power curves. The simulation study gives some interesting insights to the test procedures. Indeed, it documents that tests based on the conventional asymptotic distribution are oversized in small samples. The size correction is achieved by some bootstrap methods which appear to possess reasonable size properties. For the power study, the proposed bootstrap method improves on the asymptotic approximations of some tests for heteroskedastic regression errors especially when there is a mean-shift in the regressors. This result has not been found for the case of i.i.d. errors where the bootstrap tests have the same power properties as the tests based on the asymptotic approximations. We finally study the relationship between two monthly US interest rates. The results show that such relationship has been altered by a regime-shift located in May 1981.     

Squaring the welfare circle and government ideology: Greece and Spain in the 1990s

This article examines the "squaring the welfare circle" thesis and its usefulness to our understanding of welfare developments in Greece and Spain in the 1990s. The welfare state in both Greece and Spain was expanded considerably in the early 1980s by the newly elected socialist governments, only to hit the buffers of diminishing resources and rising demands in the late 1980s as well as the hostile neo-liberal welfare ideology. The process of welfare expansion was halted in the 1990s, labour market deregulation was encouraged and containment of welfare expenditure became the dominant aim of government policies. This article concentrates on the actual policies of governments in the 1990s rather than on the rhetoric of political parties. It concludes that governments of both the Left and the Right in both countries attempted to "square the welfare circle" mainly through reductions in the supply of welfare. This general conclusion is country-specific and may not apply to other countries involved in welfare restructuring. While recognizing the significance of institutional factors to welfare reform, the article concentrates on the outcomes of reforms rather than on the political process leading to them.     

Collective risk aversion

In this article we analyze the risk attitude of a group of heterogeneous agents and we develop a theory of comparative collective risk tolerance. In particular, we characterize how shifts in the distribution of individual levels of risk tolerance affect the group’s attitude towards risk. In a model with efficient risk-sharing and two agents an increase in the level of risk tolerance of one or of both agents might have an ambiguous impact on the collective level of risk tolerance; the latter increases for some levels of aggregate wealth while it decreases for other levels of aggregate wealth. For more general populations we characterize the effect of first-order like shifts (individual levels of risk tolerance more concentrated on high values) and second-order like shifts (more dispersion on individual levels of risk tolerance) on the collective level of risk tolerance. We also evaluate how shifts in the distribution of individual levels of risk tolerance impact the collective level of risk tolerance in a framework with exogenous egalitarian sharing rules. Our results permit to better characterize differences in risk taking behavior between groups and individuals and among groups with different distributions of risk preferences.     

Nutrient intake in day workers and shift workers

Abstract

The 24-h dietary intake, nutritional status parameters and psychosomatic factors of two-shift, three-shift and day workers were compared. Estimations of the dietary intake (across a work cycle) were made by use of a nutrient database. No significant differences were found between the groups for a large number of nutritional variables: intake of energy; intake and percentage of energy from protein, fat, total carbohydrates and sucrose; intake of coffee; and intake and density of vitamins and minerals. Only minor differences were found between the groups with regard to the quantitative intake of alcohol and calcium, and with regard to the quality of the diet (percentage of energy from alcohol, density of calcium). The groups differed significantly with respect to attitude towards work hours (three-shift workers being most negative in their attitude) and sleep disturbances (shift workers being most negative). The three-shift workers were more evening-oriented and they had higher concentrations of glucose in their blood. It was concluded that work hours not related to nutritional intake—at least not when total amounts across time are considered. It was also concluded that work hours were not related to Body Mass Index or blood lipids: triglycerides, total cholesterol, LDL (low-density lipoprotein) cholesterol and HDL (high-density lipoprotein) cholesterol.     

Children’s Experiences of Completing a Computer‐Based Violence Survey: Ethical Implications

This article aims to contribute to the discussion about the ethics of research on children when studying sensitive issues such as violence. The empirical analysis is based on the accounts given by children (11 377) who completed a computer‐based questionnaire about their experiences of violence (‘The Finnish Child Victim Survey 2008’) and their reflections on the survey. We argue that experiences of violence should not be excluded from the research agenda on children due to ethical reasons, but that a more sophisticated practice should be developed instead to meet the needs and rights of children as informants. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation 2010 National Children’s Bureau and Blackwell Publishing Limited.     

Child custody issues and co‐occurrence of intimate partner violence and child maltreatment: controversies and points of agreement amongst practitioners

The situation of families undergoing separation in a context of co‐occurrence of intimate partner violence (IPV) and child maltreatment raises certain issues related to child custody. The results presented in this paper were collected and analysed within the framework of a qualitative study aiming to identify the principal points of agreement and the main controversies amongst practitioners in several different types of organizations. Focus groups were held with a total of 43 practitioners from six different settings concerned with child custody in cases of co‐occurrence of IPV and child maltreatment. Although they agreed on the importance of ensuring the safety of victims of violence, their views diverged on three points: (1) the importance of preserving the father–child relationship; (2) collaboration between voluntary organizations and semi‐voluntary or legal agencies; and (3) consideration of cultural differences.