Aggregation of coarse preferences

We consider weak preference orderings over a set A _n of n alternatives. An individual preference is of refinement?≤n if it first partitions A _n into ? subsets of `tied' alternatives, and then ranks these subsets within a linear ordering. When ?<n, preferences are coarse. It is shown that, if the refinement of preferences does not exceed ?, a super majority rule (within non-abstaining voters) with rate 1− 1/? is necessary and sufficient to rule out Condorcet cycles of any length. It is argued moreover how the coarser the individual preferences, (1) the smaller the rate of super majority necessary to rule out cycles `in probability'; (2) the more probable the pairwise comparisons of alternatives, for any given super majority rule. Received: 29 June 1999/Accepted: 25 February 2000     

Heterogeneity and Unemployment Duration

ABSTRACT: Various unemployment duration models are estimated on a large Norwegian dataset covering labour market history 1.1.1989-31.12.1992 for all persons who became unemployed during October 1990. As many unemployed leave the unemployment register without going directly to a job, two alternative definitions of unemployment are used — register unemployment and joblessness. The problem of heterogeneity is addressed both by partitioning the individuals into four categories by previous unemployment history, and by including a random term in the job hazard. Observed as well as unobserved heterogeneity affects the estimates of expected duration to a great extent. When gamma-distributed unobserved heterogeneity is accounted for, the estimates of duration dependence become more positive relative to models where unobserved heterogeneity is ignored. Among persons who are entitled to unemployment benefit, the duration dependence appears to be significantly positive. Alternative specifications of the baseline hazard hardly affect estimates of the effects of the covariates on duration.     

Gender Gaps in Care Work: Evidences from Argentina,Chile, Spain and Uruguay

This paper is a comparative analysis of the gender gaps in the non-paid domestic and care work (NPDCW) undertaken in homes in Argentina, Chile, Spain and Uruguay. The explanatory factors of this gap in two-income households and their magnitude and impact on the distribution of NPDCW are analyzed using data from national time use surveys. The weakness of micro-sociological approaches and the variables related to relative resources and time availability is demonstrated using the estimation of a regression model, while the importance of approximations of gender roles and analyses that incorporate macro-sociological factors is shown. Furthermore, the findings show that NPDCW is done by women in 70% of cases with women’s incomes and time availability among the individual variables that drive change within the couple. The results show that the equalizing effects of time availability and gender ideology are stronger for women in more egalitarian countries; women in less egalitarian countries benefit less from their individual-level assets. Additional comparative analysis shows that other macro-level factors (economic development, female labor-force participation, gender norms and welfare systems) may also influence the division of this work. The results suggest that changes in individual-level factors alone may not be enough to achieve an equal division of labor in the household without a parallel reduction in macro-level gender inequality.

     

Impact of Multiple Labour Market Programmes on Multiple Outcomes: The Case of Norwegian Youth Programmes

Abstract. Unemployed youth in Europe have access to a variety of labour market programmes, the intention of which is to improve the chances of employment or education. A particular two‐stage modelling and estimation procedure designed to analyse the effects of multiple programmes on multiple outcomes is used to control for selection bias. The model is applied to non‐experimental longitudinal data on young unemployed individuals in Norway in the early 1990s, a period during which unemployment was rising. Separate analyses for subgroups indicate that employment programmes increase the full‐time employability of females but not of males, and for the younger age group, but not of those over 20 years of age. Training programmes have no positive effects, irrespective of subgroup. Vocational programmes are counterproductive for teenagers, which is the group at which it is targeted.     

Environmental Consequences of the Community Support Framework 1994–99 in Spain

In this article we consider the energy and environmental implications of the extra GDP growth that the CSF, for the period 1994–99, is capable of entailing. In doing so, we have developed an illustration of the so-called three Es approach: economy–energy–environment. The extra growth induced by the CSF package and its incremental effects on energy consumption and CO₂ emissions have been evaluated against an energy–economy baseline provided by the HERMIN-Spain model and the Spanish energy plan (PEN). The most salient aspect of the analysis performed is that the energy-saving and emission-cutting margins embodied in the so-called PEN scenario (due to energy substitution and energy efficiency) are rapidly exhausted when growth accelerates, for example, due to a CSF like shock. However, these margins also reveal the promising prospects of progrowth strategies with high energy-efficiency content.     

Testing the Intransitivity Explanation of the Allais Paradox

This paper uses a two-dimensional version of a standard common consequence experiment to test the intransitivity explanation of Allais-paradox-type violations of expected utility theory. We compare the common consequence effect of two choice problems differing only with respect to whether alternatives are statistically correlated or independent. We framed the experiment so that intransitive preferences could explain violating behavior when alternatives are independent, but not when they are correlated. We found the same pattern of violation in the two cases. This is evidence against intransitivity as an explanation of the Allais Paradox. The question whether violations of expected utility are mainly due to intransitivity or to violation of independence is important since it is exactly on this issue the main new decision theories differ.     

On S-Convexity and Risk Aversion

The present note first discusses the concept of s-convex pain functions in decision theory. Then, the economic behavior of an agent with such a pain function is represented through the comparison of some recursive lotteries.     

Perception of Prosodic Boundary Correlates by Newborn Infants

French newborn infants were shown to perceive acoustic correlates of phonological phrase boundaries in Spanish, with stress‐controlled stimuli. Access to phonological phrase boundaries may facilitate the acquisition of a lexicon, as well as some aspects of phonology and even syntax.     

Economics reasoning by econometrics or artificial intelligence

Currently, the mechanization of economic forecasting relies on econometric models with obvious limitations. Artificial Intelligence holds out several new possibilities. Will these innovations limit themselves to correcting existing defects, thereby improving the performance of established models, or will they bring about new approaches in modelling and in economic theory itself? Although this paper in no way pretends to answer this question, it will touch upon it as several avenues of research are outlined.