Methods for comparing policies using multiple criteria: an urban example

This paper looks at a variety of methods that can be used in evaluating a set of alternate policies using multiple criteria. The methods examined are the structural mapping of indifferences, utility values, lexicographic ordering, factor analysis, concordance analysis and multidimension scaling. Each method is tested using hypothetical data for a problem in which alternative policies are proposed for allocating monies to housing and health projects in a town. The aim is to try to reveal as objectively as possible, a set of preferred alternatives from which one can be chosen in the political decision-making process. After describing and testing the methods individually, they are compared both on the basis of their results and on the principles involved in their approach. Conclusions about the validity of each method are given, and it is emphasized that all methods should only be used as aids in the choice of an optimal policy.     

Energy supply shocks: Macroeconomic consequences for Ukraine

In exploring the short-term macroeconomic effects of energy supply shocks in Ukraine, this paper relies on the simplifying assumption that enterprises face economic regulation but not ownership uncertainty or a soft budget constraint that would adversely affect their behavior. In a sense, it assumes that Ukraine's economy is already at the second stage of reform, when ownership, contract-enforcement, and hard budget constraint questions are less of an issue. Under these assumptions and if real wages are protected, the analysis yields clear messages. Protecting the domestic economy by not passing through external price increases may cushion the decline in production and social welfare, but at a heavy cost to savings and investment; not only does it postpone adjustment and the emergence of a competitive economy, but it also deprives the economy of investible resources. Passing through external price increases while maintaining a fixed-price regime may improve the mobilization of resources but at a heavy cost to output and welfare, because it induces a heavy contraction in activity. Liberalizing prices in the nonenergy sectors in conjunction with passing through external price increases allows these sectors to generate the larger resource transfers required by a deteriorating terms of trade, in turn pulling up output; the economy can settle at a higher level of activity and welfare than in the presence of fixed prices. The conclusion is that Ukraine must clarify ownership and contract-enforcement issues as well as harden the budget constraints of enterprises as rapidly as possible, liberalize nonenergy prices at a minimum, and begin adjusting domestic energy prices to reflect the opportunity cost of these resources. Since the fall of 1994, Ukraine has proceeded to liberalize its price and trade regime, which should bring the economy a long way to recovery as outlined in this paper.     

Environmental and Resource Sociology: Theoretical Issues and Opportunities for Synthesis1

Abstract Rural sociologists have been disproportionately represented among the major contributors to environmental sociology. In part, this is because several areas of longstanding rural sociological interest (e.g., sociology of resource management and outdoor recreation, studies of resource-dependent communities) essentially came to be redefined as environmental sociology during the 1970s. The most significant role of rural sociologists in building environmental sociology, however, has perhaps been the fact that the material and biophysical nature of the phenomena they have traditionally studied contributed to a general predisposition to recognize the “materiality” of social structure and social life. I assess the major strategies that have been developed for theorizing this materiality, and then indicate some of the most critical lines of debate and dissension. I argue that if these debates are examined in their specifics—rather than as incompatible perspectives or “paradigms”—some opportunities for synthesis become apparent. Some suggested avenues of synthesis are set forth.     

Reclassifying causes of death to study the epidemiological transition in The Netherlands, 1875–1992

This article describes a method for reclassifying causes of death in the Netherlands for the period 1875–1992. Two criteria should be met to obtain a useful classification to study the epidemiological transition. First, the categories should be nosologically continuous over the period under study and second, there should be enough detail in causes which are important in the context of the epidemiological transition viz. communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases and external causes of death. A method developed by Vallin and Meslé (1988), which involves ‘dual correspondence tables’ and ‘fundamental associations’, was used to create nosologically continuous categories. These categories were tested for statistical continuity during the transition years of one ICD-revision to the next, using ordinary least squares regression analysis. The reclassification procedure resulted in a nested classification consisting of three levels of refinement of causes of death: 27 causes, 1875–1992; 65 causes, 1901–1992; and 92 causes, 1931–1992. On the basis of this classification, 43% of all deaths in 1875–79 and 98% of all deaths in 1992 could be allocated to either communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases or external causes.     

Trends among social assistance recipients in Sweden since 1945

The proportion of the Swedish population that receives means-tested social assistance has not decreased since 1945. This has been cited as a surprising research finding, since there has been a general increase in the standard of living and in income equality during the same period. The income of assistance recipients is no lower than for a substantial minority of the non-recipient population. This analysis shows that assistance recipients differ from others with low incomes in that they have less wealth and more problems concerning welfare or standard of living. It is shown that groups that traditionally have had an overrepresentation of assistance recipients have generally increased in size since 1945. Even though supply-side hypotheses cannot be ruled out as explanations for the non-decrease of social assistance, evidence indicates the persistence of people in need of assistance due to their marginal economic position in the Swedish welfare state.     

Risk Prevention and Policy-Making in Automatic Systems

Accidents with automatic production systems are reported to be on the order of one in a hundred or thousand robot-years, while fatal accidents are found to occur one or two orders of magnitude less frequently. Traditions in occupational safety tend to seek for safety targets in terms of zero severe accidents for automatic systems. Decision-making requires a risk assessment balancing potential risk reduction measures and costs within the cultural environment of a production company. This paper presents a simplified procedure which acts as a decision tool. The procedure is based on a risk concept approaching prevention both in a deterministic and in a probabilistic manner. Eight accident scenarios are shown to represent the potential accident processes involving robot interactions with people. Seven prevention policies are shown to cover the accident scenarios in principle. An additional probabilistic approach may indicate which extra safety measures can be taken against what risk reduction and additional costs. The risk evaluation process aims at achieving a quantitative acceptable risk level. For that purpose, three risk evaluation methods are discussed with respect to reaching broad consensus on the safety targets.     

Race,Region, and Earnings: Blacks and Whites in the South

Abstract Using data from the 1980 Public-Use Micro Sample (PUMS) A-file, we examine the effect of region on black and white earnings within the Black Belt and the rest of the South. We find that Black Belt residence depresses earnings for both blacks and whites, more or less equally. There was no support for the hypothesis that there would be a greater penalty to being black in the Black Belt, compared to being black in the non-Black Belt South. It is the additive effects of race and region that lead to lower earnings for Black Belt blacks. We conclude that region is a useful theoretical concept which needs to be more adequately theorized and incorporated into sociological analyses.