Eliciting Information from Experts on the Likelihood of Rapid Climate Change

The threat of so‐called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations.     

Children as ‘Being and Becomings’: Children,Childhood and Temporality

Notions of ‘being’ and ‘becoming’ are intrinsic to childhood research. Whilst the ‘being’ child is seen as a social actor actively constructing ‘childhood’, the ‘becoming’ child is seen as an ‘adult in the making’, lacking competencies of the ‘adult’ that he or she will ‘become’. However, I argue that both approaches are in themselves problematic. Instead, theorising children as ‘being and becomings’ not only addresses the temporality of childhood that children themselves voice, but presents a conceptually realistic construction suitable to both childhood researchers and practitioners.     

Women's satisfaction with their breast prosthesis: what determines a quality prosthesis?

The aim of this study is to determine what factors constitute a quality prosthesis and ascertain which factors affect prosthesis satisfaction. Sixty-four women who received full funding for their prosthesis and 38 women who received their hospital's usual funding were recruited. Women rated the information provided about breast prostheses very highly, with 85% reporting that it was "very good" or "excellent." Satisfaction was significantly associated with how well the prosthesis fit (1 week, p = .001; 3 months, p = .01), level of comfort (3 months, p=.005), and appearance of the prosthesis when worn (6 months, p = .001). Quality was significantly associated with how well it fit (1 week, p = .001; 3 months, p = .001), how natural it felt (1 week, p = .001; 6 months, p = .01), the weight of the prosthesis (3 months, p = .003), and appearance when worn (6 months, p = .03). The results will be used to improve women's access to a quality prosthesis.     

The effect of compliance-improving interventions on the cognitive-behavioural treatment of pathological gambling

This exploratory study investigated the effect of interventions designed to improve compliance and reduce dropout rates during the outpatient treatment of pathological gambling at a University-based gambling treatment clinic. Forty subjects (29 males, 11 females, mean age = 37.6) meeting DSM-IV criteria (APA, 1994) for pathological gambling were randomly assigned to either a cognitive-behavioural treatment or a cognitive-behavioural treatment combined with interventions designed to improve treatment compliance. Compliance was indicated by the completion of all treatment sessions. Outcome measures were DSM-IV criteria assessed by structured clinical interview, South Oaks Gambling Screen scores, and percentage of income gambled. Logistic regression analyses identified pretreatment characteristics predicting compliance and outcome. Compliance-improving interventions significantly reduced dropout rates, resulting in superior outcomes at posttreatment compared to the cognitive behavioural treatment alone. At 9-month follow-up, there was no difference in outcome between treatments, although both produced clinically significant change. Comorbid problem drinking, drug use, and problem gambling duration predicted poor compliance. Poor outcome was predicted by comorbid problem drinking. The clinical implications of these results are discussed in light of the exploratory nature of the study and the need for future research to address compliance, outcome, and comorbidity issues.     

HIV diffusion patterns and mobility: Gender differences among drug users

Researchers have recently expanded the scope of study of transmission patterns of AIDS to incorporate spatial and geographical questions. United States diffusion patterns of this disease appear to indicate that it may emanate from urban area epicenters to areas of low and moderate prevalence. The travel patterns of injecting drug users (IDUs) and the extent to which they engage in high risk drug and sexual activities was examined as an explanation of diffusion of the HIV virus from one community to another. The study population of 49,621 was comprised of subjects recruited from approximately 60 sites nationwide from 1988–1991. While the data are limited in some ways, they partially support a diffusion explanation of HIV transmission for males and females. The analysis demonstrates that low prevalence cities were significantly more likely to have been the destinations of both men and women who engaged in high risk drug and sexual activities. In addition, HIV seropositive drug users who engaged in high risk drug and sexual behaviors in destination cities were more likely than seronegatives to travel to high or low seroprevalence areas than to moderate prevalence areas. The findings suggest a need for effective HIV prevention educational messages about the risks of traveling and participating in high risk activities.     

Experimental partnering: interpreting improvisatory habits in the research field

This paper proposes that established research techniques can be developed in new directions by becoming attentive to the ways in which novel epistemological and ontological frameworks can shape the production of research knowledges. Drawing upon ideas from performance theory and science studies, and two brief fieldwork examples – archival research on the MRC’s Common Cold Unit and participant observation of the challenge of moving a herd of cattle – we argue that habits are also always to extent improvised; shaped by the capacities of human bodies to sense and respond to the nonhuman agentive world around them, including methodological habits. We propose a new term, ‘experimental partnering’ to define an interpretative approach that is attentive to how practice can illuminate the improvisatory or unstable temporary alignments that underlie some habits. ‘Experimental partnering’ is not offering a new way to access the research field, but a term to express a particular interpretative mode that draws attention to human-nonhuman relations and assemblages, fostering new apprehensions of how these more than social relations modify and interrupt the habitual.     

Physical activity and psychological distress in older men: findings from the New South Wales 45 and up study

Physical activity is an important factor in healthy aging and has been shown to reduce depressive symptoms. This association, however, is relatively understudied in older men. This study was a cross-sectional analysis of the association between physical activity (Active Australia Survey) and psychological distress (Kessler-10). Participants were a sample of 17,689 men age ≥ 65 yr drawn from a large-scale Australian cohort study of people age 45 years and over (The 45 and Up Study). The likelihood of reporting high or very high levels of psychological distress decreased with increasing weekly sessions of physical activity. Compared with participants reporting no sessions of physical activity, the fully adjusted odds ratio for high or very high psychological distress was .66 (95% CI .51-.85) for men who undertook 1-6 sessions of physical activity per week and decreased to .57 (95% CI, .43-.79) for men who reported 16 or more weekly sessions. The cross-sectional findings show that older men who are more active are less likely to report psychological distress, regardless of their level of functional limitation. Further research, informed by these findings, is required to investigate causal pathways and the temporal sequence of events.     

‘The language is disgusting and they refer to my disability’: the cyberharassment of disabled people

Disabled people face hostility and harassment in their socio-cultural environment. The use of electronic communications creates an online context that further reshapes this discrimination. We explored the experiences of 19 disabled victims of cyberharassment. Five themes emerged from the study: disability and health consequences, family involvement, misrepresentation of self, perceived complexity, and lack of awareness and expertise. Cyberharassment incidents against disabled people were influenced by the pre-existing impairment, perceived hate-targeting, and perpetrators faking disability to get closer to victims online. Our findings highlight a growing issue requiring action and proper support.     

Giving Up: How Gendered Organizational Cultures Push Mothers Out

Explanations for professional and managerial mothers' departure from paid work concentrate on childcare and women's preferences or choices. In contrast, our study, based on in‐depth interviews with professional and managerial mothers in London, shows that women's experiences within hegemonic masculine cultures play a key role. For example, working time norms require these mothers to work exceptionally long hours, to have permeable time boundaries even if they have negotiated reduced working hours and to ‘socialize’ in the evenings. Mothers are limited in their ability to protest or implement creative working time solutions because they feel they must hide their motherhood, which in itself creates tension. Mothers who are seemingly supported to work fewer hours are sidelined to lower‐status roles for which they are underpaid and undervalued in relation to their experience and previous seniority. Unless mothers mimic successful men, they do not look the part for success in organizations.